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Corn
Price action: May corn futures rose 9 3/4 cents to $4.53 1/2, near the session high and hit a seven-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw short covering and technical buying amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. Today’s gains were especially impressive given a rally in the U.S. dollar index. Solid gains in crude oil prices that today hit a nine-month high also spurred buying interest in corn futures.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export sales totaled 2.02 MMT during the week ended Feb. 26, which were up noticeably from the previous week and 42% from the four-week average. Net sales were well above analyst’s pre-report range of 600,000 MT to 1.6 MMT.
Ukraine’s 2026 corn production is seen at 29.9 MMT this year, about 6% lower from a year earlier, according to SovEcon.
World Weather Inc. today said good field and weather conditions are expected for Safrinha corn planting over the next week in Brazil. Recent drying has been perfect for promoting soybean maturation and harvesting while allowing Safrinha corn planting to advance well. Increasing rainfall over the next ten days should replenish soil moisture for better late season crop development potential. Southern Brazil will be driest. Southeastern Argentina rain potentials are not very good over the next ten days which may threaten late season summer crop production in portions of Buenos Aires and Uruguay.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart, and gained fresh power today. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close May prices above solid chart resistance at $4.56 3/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.40. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.54 1/2 and then at $4.56 3/4. First support is seen at $4.50 and then at $4.45.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans rose 9 3/4 cents to $11.79 1/4, near the daily high and closed at a nearly two-year-high close. May soybean meal fell $0.60 to $309.30, nearer the daily high. May soybean oil rose 211 points to 65.70, nearer the daily high and hit another contract high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market was pulled higher by surging soybean oil prices today. Bean oil was boosted today as crude oil prices hit a nine-month high. Spreaders were again featured buying bean oil and selling meal today. However, the meal market bulls know those spreads will have to be unwound at some point.
USDA this morning reported U.S. weekly soybean export sales totaled 383,500 MT during the week ended Feb. 26, down 6% from the previous week and 20% from the four-week average. Net sales were nearer the low-end of the pre-report range of 300,000 MT to 1.0 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said central and northern Brazil will see regular rain and favorable conditions for crop development through the next two weeks and the drier areas from northern Mato Grosso do Sul to Sao Paulo will benefit from the moisture while some fieldwork should advance around the precipitation. Southern Brazil and Paraguay will benefit from a period of regular rain Friday through Friday of next week and fieldwork will be interrupted while developing crops benefit from the moisture. Drier weather Mar. 14-19 will cause the soil to dry down again and additional rain will be needed soon. In Argentina, regular rounds of rain will occur during the next week in western and northern Argentina where the drier areas will see notable improvements in crop and soil conditions, while east-central and southeastern Argentina misses much of the rain where increasing crop stress and possibly causes some production cuts in the drier areas.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing May prices above solid resistance at $12.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $11.85 and then at $12.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $11.66 1/2 and then at $11.50.
Soybean meal bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but a price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in May futures above solid technical resistance at the November high of $338.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of $316.40 and then at this week’s high of $320.60. First support is seen at today’s low of $307.50 and then at $305.00.
Bean oil bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. However, the market is short-term overbought and due for a corrective pullback, and the bulls appear tired now. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing May prices above solid technical resistance at 67.50 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 60.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of 66.12 cents and then at 66.50 cents. First support is seen at 65.00 cents and then at today’s low of 63.51 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW rose 15 1/2 cents to $5.83 3/4, near the daily high. May HRW gained 20 cents to $5.92 1/2, near the daily high and hit a nine-month high. May spring wheat futures rose 10 1/4 cents $6.19 1/2, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The SRW wheat futures market today saw perceived bargain hunting and technical buying following early-week selling pressure. Strong gains in crude oil prices to a nine-month high today also supported buying interest in wheat futures. Solid gains in the corn futures market today were also positive for wheat.
USDA this morning reported U.S. weekly wheat export sales totaled 203,100 MT for the week ended Feb. 26, down 16% from the previous week and down 42% from the four-week average. Net sales were near the low-end of the pre-report range of 200,000 to 500,000 MT.
Canadian farmers intend to plant more acres of canola and barley and less wheat, oats and dry peas compared to 2025, according to StatsCan. Total wheat acres are forecasted at 26.7 million acres in 2026, down 1.1% from the previous year.
Ukraine increased grain shipments to its Black Sea ports for subsequent export by 5.5% annually in February, despite ongoing Russian attacks on transport infrastructure, according to state railways.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, rainfall in the next seven days will still be mainly limited to central and especially southeastern production areas. The northwestern Texas Panhandle up into eastern Colorado and western Kansas will be quite dry unless a closed off upper-level low pressure system next week takes a more-favorable northern track out of the southwestern U.S. Plenty of unusual warmth will lead to further greening and development of winter wheat. Some periods of cooling after Tuesday will help to temporarily limit wheat development. In the Northern Plains, snow and rain will impact the southeastern half to two-thirds of the northern Plains during the coming week. The precipitation may be greatest tonight into Saturday morning at which time there may be enough rain and snow to slow travel. Weather disturbances that follow will be brief and light having a low impact on the region. Temperatures will be above normal in this coming week and then colder biased in the following week.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained fresh power today. Price uptrends are in place on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at this week’s high of $6.03 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.35. First resistance is seen at $5.90 and then at $6.00. First support is seen at $5.75 and then at last week’s low of $5.63 1/2.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at $6.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.56 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.95 1/2 and then at $6.00. First support is seen at $5.80 and then at this week’s low of $5.68 1/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton futures fell 12 points to 64.04 cents, near mid-range and hit a three-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market today saw mild technical selling pressure. A rally in the U.S. dollar index and keener risk aversion in the general marketplace were negative outside-market forces for cotton today. However, losses in cotton were limited by a rally in the crude oil market to a nine-month high today.
USDA this morning reported weekly export sales of U.S. upland totaling 150,400 running bales (RB) for 2025/2026 were down 41 percent from the previous week and down 50 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Vietnam (50,800 RB), Pakistan (27,900 RB) and Mexico (14,400 RB). Net sales of 54,600 RB for 2026/2027 were reported for Indonesia (26,400 RB), Mexico (20,800 RB) and Vietnam (6,600 MT). Exports of 282,200 RB--a marketing-year high--were up 46 percent from the previous week and up 43 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (94,600 RB), Pakistan (39,800 RB), Turkey (31,500 RB) and China (30,300 RB).
World Weather Inc. today said that in Texas cotton regions, most areas were dry again Wednesday with rain in the northernmost Blacklands where totals reached 2.68 inches just north of the region. A period of wetter weather will occur late this week, resulting in beneficial increases in soil moisture in parts of the region, with western and central parts of West Texas, the Panhandle, and South Texas seeing the least precipitation before Mar. 12-19 is dry most often. Much more rain will be needed in western Texas and south Texas to increase soil moisture to favorable levels before the coming planting season. The San Joaquin Valley and southern Arizona will see infrequent rounds of mostly light showers during the next two weeks that should not bring enough rain to prevent the moisture from quickly being lost to evaporation.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage as prices are starting to trend lower again on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in May futures above technical resistance at the February high of 66.38 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the contract low of 62.86 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 64.45 cents and then at 64.88 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 63.62 cents and then at 63.41 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 40% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 40% sold on 2025-crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.