Corn
Price action: December corn rose 3/4 cent to $4.22 1/2, near mid-range, hit a three-week high and for the week gained 9 1/2 cents.
5-day outlook: The bulls had a good week, including today’s technically bullish weekly high close in December corn. That suggests more buying interest from traders early next week. Global stock markets wobbled overnight on some regional U.S. bank worries but the U.S indexes calmed right down during the day session today. Corn bulls do not want to see rattled stock and financial markets that would quickly sap speculator buying interest.
World Weather Inc. today said rain in the Midwest during the next two weeks should not be great enough to prevent good harvest progress. Meantime, rain coming to Brazil later this weekend and early next week will be good for improved planting, germination and emergence conditions. More rain will be needed. Drier weather will return again next week, although that should offer an excellent opportunity for fieldwork after the weekend rain. Argentina weather is expected to be favorably mixed over the next two weeks.
30-day outlook: Corn harvest will be winding down in the next few weeks, which will also see commercial hedge selling dying down. That’s price-friendly for corn. However, the extended U.S. government shutdown and lawmaker impasse on reopening the government sees a data void that’s not bullish for the grains.
90-day outlook: While the corn market has been devoid of fresh U.S. export reports the past couple weeks, recent export demand for U.S. corn has been good, which will likely keep a floor under corn futures prices in the coming months.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 8 3/4 cents to $10.19 1/2, near the session high and on the week up 12 3/4 cents. December soybean meal rose $4.10 to $281.00, near the daily high and closed at a four-week high close. On the week, December meal gained $6.00. December bean oil rose 26 points to 51.13 cents, nearer the session high and for the week up 116 points.
5-day outlook: It was a good week for the soybean futures complex bulls. Today’s technically bullish weekly high closes in beans, meal and bean oil suggest follow-through, chart-based speculator buying interest early next week. Some upbeat comments from President Trump, regarding U.S.-China relations also supported the soy complex futures today.
World Weather Inc. today said U.S. harvest weather will be very good in the Delta, lower and eastern Midwest and interior southeastern for the next 2-3 days. Conditions will trend a little wetter at times during the coming weekend and early next week slowing fieldwork, but no harm to crop quality is anticipated.
30-day outlook: The scheduled late-October summit meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping may be the most important event of the year for the soybean market. Trump has said more Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans is near the top of his list of objectives for the meeting.
90-day outlook: U.S. soybean harvest will be winding down as the calendar turns to November. Trader focus will turn to global demand and the soybean growing seasons in Brazil and Argentina.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW wheat rose 1 1/4 cents to $5.03 3/4, near the daily high. For the week, December SRW was up 5 1/4 cents. December HRW wheat gained 2 3/4 cents to $4.91 1/2, near the daily high and up 8 1/2 cents for the week. December spring wheat futures fell 1 cent to $5.48 1/2, nearer the daily low. For the week spring wheat is down 3 1/4 cents.
5-day outlook: The technically bullish weekly high closes in December SRW and HRW markets today sets the table for some follow-through buying interest from the chart-based speculators early next week. The gains in corn and soybean futures today were also supportive for wheat markets. Wheat traders will continue to look to the corn and soybean futures markets for direction next week.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said U.S. soft wheat in the Midwest will experience a good mix of rain and sunshine during the next two weeks, resulting in good planting, germination and emergence conditions. Some greater rain will soon be needed in the southwestern and west-central Plains where net drying is expected. Canada’s eastern Prairies received rain and snow Sunday and Monday and more rain evolved Thursday and will linger today. Manitoba will continue wet-biased at times during the coming ten days, while the central and southwestern Prairies are left dry. Wheat areas in eastern Ukraine, Russia’s Southern Region and western Kazakhstan still need more moisture to see better establishment and rain will impact these areas during the next ten days.
90-day outlook: The U.S. dollar index this week showed significant price weakness, which worked to limit selling interest in the downtrodden wheat futures markets. The USDX will be an important outside-market element for the wheat futures markets in the months ahead. Continued weakness in the USDX would make U.S. wheat export prices more competitive on the global trade markets.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 55 points to 64.28 cents, nearer the session high and for the week up 44 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market this week showed signs of bottoming, including a technically bullish selling exhaustion tail on the daily bar chart for December futures. Late-week rallies in the grain futures markets were also supportive for the cotton market.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said any showers that occur in West Texas over the next week to ten days should be insignificant to the maturing cotton crop. U.S. Delta and interior parts of the southeastern states will experience a mix of rain and sunshine during the next ten days. The precipitation may slow crop maturation and could raise some short-term concern over fiber quality in a few locations. Some of the southwestern U.S. cotton was briefly subjected to a quality decline because of tropical moisture earlier this month; however, improving weather this week has induced a better environment for crop maturation and harvesting. This trend of improvement will continue through the next week. Meantime, Xinjiang, China crops are rated favorably. Good harvest progress is suspected. “Production has likely been great this year, despite some issues with mild conditions in minor production areas in the northeast,” said World Weather.
90-day outlook: The U.S. stock market became a bit wobbly late this week, after setting record highs in the major indexes last week. If the cotton market bulls want to see a sustained price uptrend develop, the stock market will have to remain healthy to keep U.S. consumer confidence strong. The scheduled late-October summit meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping may be one of the most important events of the year for the U.S. cotton market. Trump has said more Chinese purchases of U.S. ag products is necessary for a lasting U.S.-China trade deal to be reached.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.