Corn
Price action: December corn rose 9 1/2 cents to $4.84 3/4, nearer the daily high and hit a seven-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw more speculator and technical buying interest as a heat wave persists in the Plains and far western Corn Belt. The near-term chart posture for the corn futures market remains bullish and is getting more bullish. Geopolitical and related production risks also loom and are limiting selling interest in corn.
In other news, Anec estimates Brazil’s corn exports will reach 3.77 MMT in July versus its previous estimate of 3.44 MMT.
Corn traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
World Weather Inc. today said most of the Midwest will see two more weeks of favorable growing conditions for corn pollination and yield potential should be high in most areas into the first week of August, with some exceptions in the west-central and northwestern Corn Belt where low soil moisture and periods of heat will stress crops. The eastern Dakotas and northeastern Nebraska into northwestern Iowa and western Minnesota should see the poorest conditions for crops as soil moisture there is mostly marginal to short and the region will not see much rain of significance through at least the next 10 days. Temperatures will not be hot through the period but heat will stress crops in parts of the region Saturday into Monday.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. A price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.00. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.56 3/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.86 1/2 and then at $4.90. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.74 3/4 and then at $4.70.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 16 1/4 cents to $12.39, nearer the daily high and hit a 3.5-year high. September soybean meal rose $5.30 to $329.60, nearer the daily high and hit an eight-month high. September soybean oil rose 112 points to 74.53 cents, near the daily high and closed at a six-week high close.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market saw solid technical buying interest from the specs today, as well as strong buying support as weather in the Midwest is heating up and somewhat drying out for late July. Recent China demand for U.S. soybeans is also bullish. In other news, Anec estimates Brazil’s soy exports are seen reaching 13.5 MMT in July, versus its previous estimate of 13.76 MMT. Soybean traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
World Weather Inc. today said expanding crop stress is likely in the northern Plains and northwestern Corn and Soybean Belt over the next 10 days, resulting in some concern over yield potential. Most other areas in the Midwest have sufficient soil moisture to carry crops for a while. Some drying in the central Delta will need to be closely monitored.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $13.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.84 3/4. First resistance is seen at $12.50 and then at $12.65. First support is seen at today’s low of $12.17 3/4 and then at this week’s low of $12.07 1/2.
Soybean meal bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at the November 2025 high of $341.30. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $316.70. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $332.60 and then at $335.00. First support is seen at $325.00 and then at $320.00.
Bean oil sees a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of 76.68 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 65.42 cents. First resistance is seen at 75.00 cents and then at 76.00 cents. First support is seen at 73.00 cents and then at today’s low of 72.68 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 10% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 100%, and 15% of 2026 expected production to get to 25% sold. Hedgers should also have another 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 45% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: September SRW rose 27 3/4 cents to $7.05 3/4, near the daily high and hit a contract high. September HRW rose 30 1/2 cents to $7.63 1/2, nearer the daily high and also hit a contract high. September spring wheat futures rose 24 3/4 cents to $7.29.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw solid technical buying amid bullish near-term charts. Fundamentally, concerns about global grain supplies amid tensions in the Black Sea and Middle East are prompting buying interest across many commodities. Russia has restricted its shipping access to certain Sea of Azov and Kavkaz ports while continuing its own strikes on Ukrainian port infrastructure, as Ukraine launched drone attacks on warehouses operated by Wildberries, reports TradingEconomics.com.
Crop scouts on the first day of an annual three-day tour of North Dakota’s hard red spring wheat crop projected an average yield in the southern portion of the state at 46.0 bushels per acre. The estimate, released on Tuesday evening, was below the Wheat Quality Council tour’s estimate of 50.0 bpa, but above the five-year average of 45.8 bpa.
Wheat traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
World Weather today said that in U.S. HRW country, good harvest weather is predicted for the next week to 10 days. Some rain will fall periodically in Nebraska, northern Kansas and Colorado, which may disrupt fieldwork periodically without inducing a serious risk to grain quality. Summer crop stress because of drying and hot conditions is expected to be significant in unirrigated fields from southern Kansas to Texas over the next 10 days which could impact some of the region’s grain and oilseed production. In the Northern Plains, yield potentials are still coming down in spring wheat production areas from Montana into the Dakotas due to excessive heat, poor soil moisture and minimal rain. Despite the cool weather today, excessive heat will redevelop in the coming days and could lead to additional production losses. The heat should slowly ease this weekend into next week, but no big change is likely before then.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Price uptrends are firmly in place on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at $7.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.50. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of $7.08 1/4 and then at $7.25. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.78 and then at this week’s low of $6.65 1/4.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at $8.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $7.00. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of $7.68 1/2 and then at $7.80. First support is seen at $7.40 and then at today’s low of $7.34 1/2.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 30% sold for 2026. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 69 points to 81.11 cents, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures today saw more technical buying today to keep the price uptrend alive on the daily bar chart. Better risk appetite in the general marketplace this week is also a positive for the cotton market. Big gains in crude oil prices this week are also price-friendly for cotton. Cotton traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
World Weather Inc. today said recent rain in parts of west Texas was good for crops but a more generalized soaking is needed because many areas were missed by that rain. The next 10 days will be drier than usual and that will stress some of the dryland crop. Cotton conditions in most other U.S. production areas are variable, with most crops suspected of doing relatively well. Some needed rain is expected in the Carolinas this week, while the middle Delta experiences net drying for at least 10 days.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and are keeping alive a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the July high of 82.96 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 77.73 cents. First resistance is seen at 81.50 cents and then at 82.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 79.90 cents and then at 79.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.