Corn
Price action: December corn fell 1 1/2 cents to $4.41 1/2, nearer the daily low and for the week down 2 1/2 cents.
5-day outlook: The beleaguered corn market bulls at least showed somewhat of a pulse late this week, despite today’s mild losses. Thursday’s technically bullish key reversal up on the daily bar chart in December corn is one clue that a market bottom is in place. Still, very good growing conditions over most of the Corn Belt will likely limit gains in the near term.
Corn production in France could plunge by around 30% this year as potential damage from a record heatwave comes on top of a sharp decline in planting, according to its agriculture ministry. FranceAgriMer indicated crop conditions in the European Union fell to an eight-year low last week. Also, corn production in Mexico is forecast to decline by 2% to 24.3 million tons in 2026-27 due to the prospect of reduced profitability.
Tuesday’s USDA planted acreage updates are drawing trader attention and speculation on what the agency will report. There are growing notions U.S. planted corn acres won’t be reduced much. The USDA quarterly grain stocks report is also out Tuesday. The Reuters survey’s average analyst estimate for corn supplies of 5.408 billion bushels, up 16.5% from a year earlier, would represent the largest June 1 corn stocks since 1988.
Traders will keep watching the weekly USDA crop progress reports on Monday afternoons.
30-day outlook: Weather in the Corn Belt still leans overall price-bearish at present, as pollination is right around the corner for most of the U.S. crop. A warmer and drier weather pattern will begin this weekend and continue into July 10, with soil moisture in place and some showers adequate in favorably supporting corn pollination and other crop development in much of the Midwest through early July, while production potentials will remain very high. A ridge of high pressure will impact the Midwest this weekend into early July, but the ridge will not be centered on the Midwest during most of the period and there will be showers most days that will slow drying rates and will help to keep humidity high enough that excessive heat does not evolve right away. A close watch will continue on the rainfall distribution in the west-central and northwestern Corn Belt where many areas need rain to ensure crops have adequate soil moisture when drier weather occurs in early July.
90-day outlook: The closely followed annual Pro Farmer crop tour in late August will be a main late-growing-season market factor for corn. As the growing season progresses, there are concerns that excessive early season moisture could result in higher disease pressure later, especially if high temperatures arrive soon, though markets have given little weight to those worries so far.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 3/4 cent to $11.56 1/4, nearer the daily high and for the week up 13 1/2 cents. September soybean meal lost $1.30 to $302.30, nearer the daily high and for the week up $1.50. September bean oil rose 16 points to 68.74 cents, near the daily high and for the week were up 136 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean bulls had a good week as they negated a price downtrend on the daily chart and are now working on a price uptrend. Worrisome for the bean bulls is the still-anemic soybean meal futures market. Weather in the Midwest still leans price-bearish for the soy complex markets.
Tuesday’s USDA planted acreage updates will be a major focal point of the month for soy complex traders. Traders expect U.S. bean acres to be up slightly from the late-March estimate from the agency. The USDA quarterly grain stocks report is also out Tuesday. A Reuters survey shows the average soybean sotcks estimate of 1.046 million bushels, up 3.8% from a year ago, would represent the largest June 1 soybean stocks since 2020.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said drying is likely in South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa and northeastern Nebraska during the next 10 days, raising crop moisture stress in time. High heat and humidity across all of the Midwest will occur this weekend and next week. Cooling will return to the northern and eastern Midwest in the second week of July. Some net drying is likely in the heart of Midwest this weekend through most of next week, though significant rain will fall tonight into Saturday in the lower parts of the Midwest.
90-day outlook: August is arguably the most important growing month for most of the U.S. soybean crop. That means there is still time for a weather-market scare to pop up in soybeans. Focus will also be on the annual Pro Farmer crop tour that occurs in late August.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 20% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 90%. Hedgers should be 10% forward sold with 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: September SRW wheat fell 11 3/4 cents to $5.89 3/4, nearer the daily low and for the week down 24 1/4 cents. September HRW wheat lost 11 cents to $6.19 1/2, nearer the daily low, hit a 2.5-month low and for the week down 31 3/4 cents. September spring wheat futures fell 9 3/4 cents to $6.05 1/4, nearer the daily low and for the week were down 42 1/2 cents.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets today saw technically bearish weekly low closes, setting the table for some follow-through, chart-based selling pressure early next week. Harvest-related commercial hedge pressure is starting to weigh more heavily on the winter wheat futures markets.
The European Commission cut its forecast for usable production for soft wheat in the European Union during 2026-27 to 126.3 MMT, down from 126.9 MMT a month ago.
Tuesday comes the updated U.S. acreage and quarterly grain stocks reports from USDA. U.S. all wheat acres are expected to be virtually unchanged from the late-March planting intentions report, according to a Reuters survey of analysts. For U.S. wheat stocks, the average estimate of 934 million bushels is up 9.3% from a year ago, would be the largest June 1 wheat stocks since 2020.
Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports and the U.S. winter wheat condition ratings will be closely scrutinized by wheat traders. USDA is likely to release its final condition rating of the crop next week as harvest should eclipse the 50% complete threshold.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said U.S. wheat areas in the Plains and Midwest will trend warmer and eventually drier which will support better maturation and harvest conditions. Rain is needed in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and portions of the interior northern Plains. Portions of eastern and western Canada’s Prairies are too wet while central areas might benefit from a rainfall boost. Drying may also be needed soon in Ontario and Quebec. Meantime, waves of rain will impact the FSU during the next ten days to two weeks favoring areas near to in the Ural Mountains region. Temperatures are expected to be a little milder than usual in the west this week and then warming next week. Portions of France are too dry and hot and rain is needed for spring crops. Winter grains are going to be too far advanced to recover if and when rain falls. Excessive heat and dryness in France have rushed winter crops toward maturity at the cost of some yield and quality. Other areas in Europe are likely experiencing mostly good crop development.
90-day outlook: Winter wheat harvest is in full swing and will move north in the coming weeks. Harvest-season pressure has a firm grip on winter wheat markets for now, with bullish supply concerns developing in Europe so far unable to offer any traction.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You should have 30% sold for 2026.
Cash-only marketers: You are now 100% sold on the 2025 crop. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 59 points to 76.38 cents, near mid-range, hit a two-week low and for the week down 329 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market today saw technical selling pressure as bears are regaining chart momentum. A stronger U.S. dollar index and lower crude oil prices recently have helped to weigh on cotton futures. Tuesday comes the updated USDA planted acres report.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said cotton areas in western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see isolated showers most days during the next two weeks and drying rates will be slowed by the resulting rain, but rain will be mostly too light and poorly organized to induce significant improvements in soil moisture. Hot temperatures into Monday will increase stress to cotton, and especially dryland cotton, where much greater rain is needed to boost soil moisture and improve conditions for the crop. Little rain is expected during the next two weeks in south Texas, the Blacklands, and the Coastal Bend where recent rain has left the soil moist enough to favorably support cotton development through the period. By the second week of July soil moisture will be short enough in some areas that greater rain will be needed soon.
90-day outlook: The major U.S. stock indexes have turned wobbly since hitting record highs in early June. That’s a negative for cotton. However, gasoline prices at the pump have dropped below $4.00 a gallon, on average, which is cotton-market-friendly and suggests U.S. consumer confidence will be upbeat in the coming months, meaning better demand for fall/winter apparel after Labor Day. Significantly lower gasoline prices are likely to more than offset any negative consumer attitudes from a sustained sell off in the U.S. stock indexes, as far as consumer confidence is concerned.
What to do: Get current with advised sales
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.