Crops Analysis | Bargain hunters prop up corn, soybeans

Oct. 15, 2025

Pro Farmer's Crops Analysis
Pro Farmer’s Crops Analysis
(Pro Farmer)

Corn

Price action: December corn futures rose 3 3/4 cents to $4.16 3/4, nearer the daily high.

Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw decent short-covering buying as well as perceived bargain hunting in later trading today, including from the hedge funds, after prices Tuesday hit a six-week low. A lower U.S. dollar index today was a bullish outside-market element for corn.

World Weather Inc. today said rain during the next two weeks should not be great enough to prevent good harvest progress from being made in much of the U.S. Midwest. Most of the northern Midwest will see rain into Thursday before the southwestern Corn Belt to Wisconsin and the eastern Corn Belt receives rain Friday into Sunday and possibly returns to most areas Oct. 28-29. Temperatures through Saturday will be mostly much warmer than normal to unseasonably warm.

Technical analysis: Corn bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $4.24 1/2. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.00. First resistance is seen at $4.20 and then at $4.24 1/2. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.11 1/4 and then at this week’s low of $4.09 1/4.

What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.

Hedgers: You should be 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.

Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.

Soybeans

Price action: November soybeans closed unchanged at $10.06 1/2, nearer the session low. December soybean meal rose $1.60 to $275.90, nearer the daily high. December soybean oil rose 23 points to 50.80 cents, nearer the session low.

Fundamental analysis: The soy complex futures today saw short covering early on after soybeans Tuesday hit a two-week low. However, late selling pressure in soybeans erased early gains. Positive for the complex was today’s monthly NOPA report that showed September U.S. soybean crush topped market expectations at 197.863 million bushels. That’s the largest September crush on record.

Somewhat supportive for bean oil futures was news President Trump on Tuesday said he might stop trade in cooking oil with China. The potential move would be a retaliation against China for its refusal to buy U.S. soybeans. However, traders also interpreted the news as showing U.S.-China trade relations continue to erode.

World Weather Inc. today said U.S. harvest weather will be very good in the Delta, lower and eastern Midwest and interior southeastern for the next 2-3 days. Conditions will trend a little wetter at times during the coming weekend and early next week slowing fieldwork, but no harm to crop quality is anticipated. Meanwhile, rain coming to Brazil later this week and into the weekend will be good for improved planting, germination and emergence conditions. Drier weather will return again next week, although that should offer an excellent opportunity for fieldwork after the weekend rain. Argentina weather is expected to be favorably mixed over the next two weeks.

Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at last week’s high of $10.30. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of $9.93. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $10.13 and then at $10.20. First support is seen at $10.00 and then at $9.93.

December soybean meal scored a bullish outside day up today. Bears do still have the overall near-term technical advantage as a price downtrend remains in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $282.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $270.10. First resistance comes in at $278.00 and then at $280.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $273.00 and then at $270.10.

Bean oil bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at 52.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of 48.89 cents. First resistance is seen at the October high of 51.60 cents and then at 52.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 50.50 cents and then at 50.00 cents.

What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.

Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.

Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 20% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.

Wheat

Price action: December SRW wheat lost 1 1/2 cents to $4.98 3/4, near mid-range. December HRW fell 1/4 cent to $4.88 1/4, nearer the daily high. December spring wheat futures fell 2 1/2 cents to $5.51.

Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets bulls are working to stabilize prices but have some heavy lifting ahead of them. A weaker U.S. dollar index today did limit selling interest in wheat. Decent gains in the corn futures market today were also price-friendly for the winter wheat markets.

Soft wheat exports from the European Union since the start of the 2025-26 marketing year in July were down 23% from year-ago as of Oct. 12, though the date did reflect incomplete figures for top EU producer France, according to the European Commission.

World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country some limited shower and thunderstorm activity will occur in the next seven days. What rain occurs will be supportive of newly planted winter wheat. There will be some pockets of the region that miss out from meaningful moisture, though, and unusual warmth will keep evaporation rates high. Today’s forecast is a little drier-biased for the region and the need for greater rainfall will rise in some areas. In the Northern Plains, an area of low pressure will move across the region later today through Thursday and promote rain in most areas. Some minor fieldwork delays are still likely to result from this, mainly Thursday. Another storm system remains possible Tuesday into Oct. 22 that could cause some more minor delays; though, this system may not produce as much precipitation. “The bottom line is that the weather pattern will continue to be mostly favorable for the region and the occasional rain should help support newly planted winter crops,” said the forecaster.

Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Price downtrends are firmly in place on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.25. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.75. First resistance is seen at last Friday’s high of $5.09 1/2 and then at $5.20. First support is seen at the contract low of $4.92 1/4 and then at $4.85.

The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at $5.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $4.60. First resistance is seen at $5.00 and then at $5.10. First support is seen at the contract low of $4.77 1/4 and then at $4.70.

What to Do: Get current with advised sales.

Hedgers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.

Cash-only marketers: You are 30% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.

Cotton

Price action: December cotton rose 25 points to 63.76 cents, near mid-range.

Fundamental analysis: December cotton futures saw short covering and perceived bargain buying after prices Tuesday hit a contract low. A weaker U.S. dollar index today was a supportive outside market for cotton, as were firmer corn and soybean futures prices today.

World Weather Inc. today said any showers that occur in West Texas over the next week should be insignificant to the maturing cotton crop. There is some potential for greater rain briefly in the middle to latter part of next week as a new tropical system moves into Mexico from the eastern Pacific Ocean, although confidence in that rain event is still low. U.S. Delta and interior parts of the southeastern states will experience a restricted rainfall pattern through the end of this workweek. Showers and thunderstorms will develop in the Delta this weekend before shifting to the east into the southeastern states next week. Fieldwork will be briefly slowed and come temporary discoloring of cotton fiber will be possible. However, the overall impact on crops will be low with the southeastern states least impacted, said World Weather.

Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 5.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. However, Tuesday’s and today’s high-range closes have produced a bullish selling exhaustion tail in December cotton, to begin to suggest a market bottom is in place. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 66.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 60.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 64.42 cents and then at 65.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 63.25 cents and then at the contract low of 62.71 cents.

What to do: Get current with advised sales.

Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.

Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop. No 2025-crop sales are advised at this time.