Corn
Price action: December corn rose 9 cents to $4.61, near the daily high and for the week up 19 1/2 cents.
5-day outlook: The corn bulls rebounded smartly today to provide them with fresh technical momentum after shaky trading days Wednesday and Thursday. USDA today cut its old-crop corn carryover 125 million bu. from last month while stocks were 59 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA made no change on the supply side of the old-crop balance sheet. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2025-26 at $4.15, steady from last month. Corn production for 2026/27 is up fractionally based on updated planted and harvested area from the June 30 Acreage report. The yield is unchanged at 183.0 bushels per acre. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.40 per bushel.
Traders will keep watching the weekly USDA crop progress reports on Monday afternoons.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said the U.S. Midwest will see favorable conditions for corn pollination and other crop development through at least the next week as there will be a lack of significant heat in much of the region along with moist soils and at least some rain in many areas. Exceptions will occur in the eastern Dakotas and portions of western Minnesota this weekend where some areas will see highs in the middle 90s to the lower 100s. Warmer weather will occur next week along with a drier weather pattern Sunday into July 24 with eastern South Dakota and nearby areas warmest next week. The coming heat and dryness will be poorly timed for pollinating corn in and near eastern South Dakota and stress to crops should increase due to the heat possibly inducing some reductions in yield potentials while moisture from recent rain is lost to evaporation.
90-day outlook: Corn futures have been supported by heat and dryness in the U.S. and EU as crops enter critical pollination. Domestic demand remains robust, driven by ethanol and livestock feed, while South American competition—particularly advancing safrinha harvests in Brazil—has pressured exports. Traders remain cautious amid generally favorable production prospects this fall and ample global supplies. However, weather developments in the U.S. and other key regions in the coming weeks will dominate, with any adverse shifts likely sparking volatility. Sustained rallies would require stronger demand surprises or confirmed production losses.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 10% forward sold and 40% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 9 1/4 cents to $11.90 3/4, nearer the daily high and for the week up 43 cents. September soybean meal gained $2.80 to $317.20, near mid-range and hit a five-week high. For the week, September meal was up $14.10. September bean oil rose 44 points to 69.92 cents, nearer the daily high and for the week up 358 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean complex futures rallied today on more confirmation of China purchases of U.S. soybeans. USDA this morning reported daily sales of 264,000 MT of U.S. soybeans to China during 2026-27. USDA today reported just a slight rise in its U.S. soybean production estimate from last month. The agency put its old-crop U.S. soybean carryover estimate down 10 million bu. from June (at 330 million) and that is 7 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA made no change to the old-crop supply. The agency puts the 2025-26 national average on-farm cash bean price at $10.40, steady from last month. New-crop bean carryover was steady from last month and is 22 million bu. Below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA increased projected new-crop exports by 30 million bu. from June to 1.66 billion bu., and left crush unchanged at 2.75 billion. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash bean price for 2026-27 at $11.40, steady from last month.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said the soybean crop varies from the dry far northwestern Corn Belt to excessively wet in some central Midwest locations. The coming week of weather will provide some rain and sunshine while maintaining seasonably warm temperatures. The end result should be mostly good for summer crops, although there is potential for some heavy rainfall in the lower eastern Midwest. Crop moisture stress may worsen over the weekend and into next week in the northwestern Corn Belt.
90-day outlook: August is arguably the most important growing month for most of the U.S. soybean crop. That means there is still time for a weather-market scare to pop up in soybeans. Focus will also be on the annual Pro Farmer crop tour that occurs in late August. Renewed Middle East tensions and U.S. weather concerns have boosted soyoil demand, reinforcing biofuel importance and supporting the complex.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Sell 10% of the 2025 crop to advance sales to 100%, and 15% of 2026 expected production to get to 25% sold. Hedgers should also have another 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 45% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: September SRW wheat rallied 20 1/2 cents to $6.40 1/4, nearer the daily high, hit a six-week high and for the week up 40 1/2 cents. September HRW wheat rose 22 cents to $6.76 1/4, nearer the daily high, also hitting a six-week high and for the week up 37 3/4 cents. September spring wheat futures rose 22 cents to $6.76 1/4 and notched a 33 3/4-cent weekly gain.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets today saw a double-barrel bullish boost from escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine that have spurred rumblings of shipping disruptions in the Sea of Azov. Ukraine has reportedly struck a number of Russian tankers in the Sea that is connected to the Black Sea. And today’s monthly WASDE report also leaned price-friendly for wheat. USDA’s first U.S. all-wheat production estimate fell 7 million bu. from the June projection but was 1 million bu. higher than analysts expected. The winter wheat crop estimate declined 39 million bu. from last month, though that was somewhat than offset by bigger-than-expected other spring wheat production. USDA estimated the other spring wheat yield at 52.3 bu. per acre, which would be the second highest yield on record. Old-crop wheat carryover at 920 million bu. was set by the June 1 Quarterly Grain Stocks Report. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price for 2026-27 at $5.06, up a penny from last month. New-crop wheat carryover is down 22 million bu. from last month but is 4 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA made no changes to the demand side of the balance sheet. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price for 2026-27 at $6.00, unchanged from last month.
Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports and the U.S. winter wheat condition ratings will be closely scrutinized by wheat traders.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said scattered showers and thunderstorms in the U.S. Midwest recently and those expected the remainder of this week will slow crop maturation and harvest progress, although some fieldwork will advance. Drier weather is likely during the weekend and especially next week. Net drying is expected to evolve in the northern U.S. Plains and southern parts of Canada’s Prairies over the next week with some unusually warm weather expected which may lead to rapid soil moisture depletion and a little crop stress in time. Meanwhile, too much rain has been falling in parts of Canada and in central portions of Russia’s New Lands possibly raising the potential for wet weather disease. This week’s weather will improve Canada and remain wet in the FSU. Europe weather has been hot and dry recently, stressing some crops. However, most of the crops outside of France had sufficient subsoil moisture to support small grain development without much concern. Northeastern Europe has trended cooler and wetter recently and that bias will remain through the weekend before drier and warmer conditions evolve next week. Portions of France have been too dry and hot recently for ideal winter wheat and barley conditions. The crop will be smaller than originally expected.
90-day outlook:Export demand for U.S. SRW wheat will be a market focus, with abundant global supplies and harvest progress in key growing regions. HRW sees itstight domestic balance sheet and renewed geopolitical tensions provide a bullish undertone. Harvest across the northern Plains remains minimal.For HRS, condition ratings have declined modestly as heat has set in at a time when the crop is heading. Overall, however, the crop remains in solid condition.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 30% sold for 2026. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 91 points to 81.54 cents, near the daily high, closed at a six-week high close and for the week up 442 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market today saw buying interest from spillover support from solid gains in grains, including a technically bullish weekly high close. USDA today kept its old-crop cotton carryover steady from last month and made no changes on the supply or demand sides of the 2025-26 balance sheet. USDA lowered the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2025-26 half a cent to 62.5 cents. New-crop cotton carryover is forecast up 400,000 bales from last month. USDA raised production 400,000 bales due to an increase in harvested acres from the June Acreage Report and a modest bump in yield. USDA made no changes to the demand side of the new-crop balance sheet. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2026-27 at 73 cents, unchanged from last month.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said west Texas still needs significant moisture especially in the dryland areas of the southwest.Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over the weekend and into early next week. Cotton conditions in most other U.S. production areas are in varying condition with most crops suspected of doing relatively well. There is a big need for rain in the Carolinas and in a part of the central Delta and most of the Texas crop areas will need rain soon. Favorable harvest weather should continue in Argentina, despite a few brief showers. Some showers are slated for center-west Brazil crop areas Sunday into Tuesday of next week which might result in some field working delay and a decline in fiber quality. However, most of the precipitation will be too brief and light for a lasting impact.
90-day outlook: Price action in the major U.S. stock indexes and retail gasoline prices at the pump will be major drivers for consumer confidence in the coming months, which in turn will influence consumer demand for apparel this fall. The stock indexes have traded sideways and have turned somewhat wobbly since late May. Gasoline prices at the pump had dropped below $4.00 a gallon, on average, but are on the rise again. Gasoline prices remain elevated from levels seen at this time last year and that’s a negative for cotton futures from a consumer demand perspective. Weather uncertainties will now be a key driver for cotton futures up until harvest.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.