Corn
Price action: December corn fell 6 1/4 cents to $5.36 3/4, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw a “Turnaround Tuesday” session, following solid gains posted Monday. The U.S. dollar index today hit a 2.5-month high, which was a bearish outside-market element for the corn market. There is also now strong chart resistance just above the market.
USDA Monday afternoon rated the U.S. corn crop as 57% good to excellent as of Sept. 20, unchanged from the previous week. The Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect) showed the corn crop declined 1.69 points to 348.74, which is 22.05 behind year-ago at this time. Corn harvest was estimated at 13% complete as of Sunday, two points ahead of the five-year average.
World Weather Inc. today said recent rainfall in the northern Midwest disrupted fieldwork and some of the wetter areas will need a few days of drying, especially in the wettest areas from northern Missouri and Iowa into Wisconsin and southeastern Minnesota. Another wave of rain is possible late this week into early next week across some of these same areas, keeping fieldwork sluggish. Meantime, early season rainfall in parts of Brazil led to some earlier-than-usual planting of first-season corn. Center-west has been drying recently and that may continue for a while, depleting soil moisture and stressing any early planted and emerged crops. Center-west may not see much moisture of significance for a while which could lead to some replanting.
Technical analysis: Corn market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but stiff resistance is seen at the contract high just overhead. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the contract high of $5.49 3/4. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $5.09—the bottom of an upside price gap on the daily bar chart. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $5.44 1/2 and then at $5.49 3/4. First support is seen at $5.35 and then at $5.30.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: Hedgers should have 60% forward sold. You should have sold all of the December $4.80 puts. Remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 70% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.You should also be 10% forward-sold on 2027 crop.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 2 1/2 cents to $13.25 1/2, near mid-range. December soybean meal rose $2.30 to $370.70, near mid-range. December soybean oil fell 93 points to 67.92 cents, nearer the daily low and closed at a three-week low close.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean marketsaw mild support most of the session by the strong rebound in meal futures. However, gains were given up in late trading as corn and wheat futures sold off and hit their daily lows late. Spreaders were featured buying meal and selling bean oil today. Gains in beans were limited as the U.S. dollar index today hit a 2.5-month high, which was a bearish outside-market element for the soy complex.
USDA on Monday afternoon rated the U.S. soybean crop as 58% good to excellent as of Sunday. On our CCI, the crop declined 2.86 points to 354.69, which trails year-ago at this time by 3.76 points. Soybean harvest was estimated at 12% complete, four points ahead of average.
Chinese and U.S. officials wrapped up their second day of talks in New York on Monday to discuss trade as they sought to advance negotiations ahead of President Xi Jinping’s visit to the U.S. this week. Talks on Monday focused on delivering on what’s been agreed by the U.S. and Chinese lead negotiators, China’s Vice Finance Minister Liao Min said.
China’s state stockpiler Sinograin announced on Tuesday its second large-scale auction of imported soybeans in September. The auction, set for next Monday, will include 514,000 MT of soybeans produced between 2022 and 2024, according to the National Grain Trade Centre.
World Weather Inc. today said today’s forecast is wetter overall than what was advertised Monday and areas west of the Mississippi River will see little rain and good harvest progress today before regular rounds of rain Wednesday into the following Wednesday slow fieldwork, with some heavy rain from eastern Nebraska into western Iowa Wednesday into Friday. Much of Iowa already has nearly saturated soils in place and some local flooding may result from rain later this week and with follow-up rain early next week delays to fieldwork will be extended deeper into October. Soil moisture is still short from southern Illinois into Kentucky, where rapid harvesting is likely while the region remains in need of greater rain to support winter wheat planting, germination, and establishment.
Technical analysis: November soybeans bulls see their next near-term upside technical objective is closing November prices above solid resistance at $13.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $12.56 1/2. First resistance is seen at the contract high of $13.35 1/4 and then at $13.50. First support is seen at $13.00 and then at last week’s low of $12.92.
Soybean meal sees a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in December futures above solid technical resistance at $385.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $355.00. First resistance comes in at last week’s high of $374.20 and then at $378.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $365.90 and then at $360.00.
Bean oil sees the next upside price objective for the bulls is closing December prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 74.55 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 64.63 cents. First resistance is seen at 70.00 cents and then at last week’s high of 71.09. First support is seen at this week’s low of 67.57 cents and then at 67.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 65% forward sold on 2026 crop. You should have sold all November $11.60 puts, remain patient for hedging opportunities for now. Remain patient on 2027-crop sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You should also have 75% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery. You should also have 10% of 2027-crop forward sold.
Wheat
Price action: December SRW fell 9 1/2 cents to $7.17 1/4, nearer the daily low. December HRW fell 13 1/4 cents to $7.81 1/4, nearer the session low. December spring wheat futures fell a dime to $7.36 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw technical selling pressure today as both SRW and HRW are in fledging price downtrends. The U.S. dollar index today hit a 2.5-month high, which was a bearish outside-market element for the wheat markets.
USDA Monday afternoon reported 17% of the U.S. winter wheat crop was planted as of Sept. 20, up nine percentage points on the week but still four points behind the five-year average.
Western Europe continues to struggle for wheat and barley planting moisture and not much is expected for a while, notes World Weather Inc. In the meantime, northeastern Europe and parts of the Black Sea region will get some needed moisture while the Danube River basin stays a little too dry.
World Weather Inc. today also said relief to months of hot, dry, weather is coming to the southern Plains this weekend and it should last into early October. Showers and thunderstorms will slowly increase soil moisture from the southwestern Plains into Kansas and temperatures will not be nearly as hot as they have been. Improved winter wheat planting, emergence and establishment conditions are likely as time moves along during the next two weeks. In the Northern Plains, periods of rain and sun will occur across the crop region, alongside seasonable to warmer-than-usual temperatures. Rainfall will inhibit fieldwork, though increased moisture will be beneficial in supporting the development of winter crops.
Technical analysis: SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the contract high of $7.95. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.85. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $7.36 and then at $7.50. First support is seen at last week’s low of $7.10 and then at $7.00.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing December prices above solid chart resistance at the contract high of $8.58 1/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $7.47 1/4. First resistance is seen at $8.00 and then at $8.10. First support is seen at last week’s low of $7.78 1/4 and then at $7.65.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% sold for 2026, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You have 60% of expected 2026-crop production sold, with 10% forward sold for 2027-crop.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures fell 55 points to 82.87 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw a corrective pullback today following Monday’s good gains. The U.S. dollar index today hit a 2.5-month high, which was also a bearish outside-market element for the cotton market. Losses in the grain futures markets today were also a bearish weight on cotton futures.
Monday afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports showed the U.S. cotton crop was 13% harvested as of Sunday, with 65% of bolls opening. The condition of the cotton crop was 35% poor to very poor, 31% fair, and 34% good to excellent condition.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see showers through Friday that will benefit some irrigated cotton, while the rain will come too late to benefit most cotton and with the potential for quality declines and boll rot possibly outweighing whatever benefits occur. Showers and thunderstorms will increase today into Friday, when much of the region receives 0.75-2.25” and locally more with some bands of heavier rain and some pockets of lighter rain and eastern areas seeing the least rain. Some cotton discoloration is likely to result from the rain, while concerns over boll rot increase with some potential for cotton fibers to be strung out if rainfalls too heavily. Drier weather advertised for Saturday into Oct. 6 will be important in drying out cotton bolls and bleaching the fibers white. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will see occasional rounds of mostly light showers through the next two weeks and cotton maturation and harvesting should occur in a mostly favorable environment as there should be enough drying time between showers to dry out cotton fibers.Rain should be greatest Sep. 29-30 when much of the region receives at least some precipitation.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures see prices still trending lower on the daily chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at 88.80 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 80.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 83.96 and then at 84.50 cents. First support is seen at 82.00 cents and then at last week’s low of 80.71 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time. No sales for 2027-crop are advised at this time.