Corn
Price action: December corn fell 1/4 cent to $4.61 3/4, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw mild technical selling pressure today as prices are trending down. Position evening was also featured heading into Wednesday morning’s USDA supply and demand report. Weather in the Corn Belt still leans price-bearish. A firmer U.S. dollar index today was also a bearish outside-market element for corn.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1.740 MMT during the week ended Aug. 6, down 147,865 MT from the previous week, which topped analysts’ pre-report range of 1.4 to 1.7 MMT. USDA also reported daily U.S. corn sales of 105,000 MT to unknown destinations during 2025-26.
Corn traders will closely examine this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports, which are expected to show the U.S. corn crop in 61% good to excellent condition as of Sunday–the same as last week.
World Weather Inc. today said milder temperatures and some periodic showers and thunderstorms in the all of the U.S. Midwest in the coming 10 days will be welcome. Crop stress in the northwestern Corn Belt may be reduced if the forecast for later this week and next week is correct suggesting more rain. Meantime, Europe crops will also continue stressed this week with low soil moisture in many areas, but nowhere more serious than in central and northern France and the southern United Kingdom. Warm to hot weather in western and southern Europe will add heat stress to the dryness issue in many areas from France to Slovakia, Romania, Ukraine and Greece.
Technical analysis: Corn market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the July high of $4.92. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.40. First resistance is seen at Friday’s high of $4.67 1/4 and then at $4.70. First support is seen at last week’s low of $4.57 1/4 and then at $4.50.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 40% forward sold and 20% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 50% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans rose 3 1/4 cents to $11.79 1/2, near mid-range. September soybean meal fell $3.40 to $305.50, near the daily low and hit a four-week low. September soybean oil rose 129 points to 69.53 cents, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean market today saw mild short covering, while soybean oil futures posted solid gains today as crude oil prices were sharply higher and back above $80 a barrel for WTI. Spreaders were buying bean oil and selling meal today. Weather in the Midwest still leans price-bearish for the soy complex.
USDA this morning reported daily U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 399,201 MT during the week ended Aug. 6, down 51,955 MT from the previous week and within analysts’ pre-report range of 300,000 to 500,000 MT.
Soybean traders will closely examine this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports, which are expected to show the U.S. soybean crop in 63% good to excellent condition as of Sunday–the same as last week.
World Weather Inc. today said that in the Midwest daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms through much of the next two weeks and a lack of widespread, significant heat through at least this week will ensure crop conditions are favorable and yield potentials are quite high in much of the region deep into the month, with some exceptions in the west-central and northwestern Corn Belt. A close watch will continue on east-central and southeastern South Dakota and nearby Nebraska into northwestern Iowa as well as eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota where soil moisture is marginal to short and stress to crops will increase until significant rain falls. Occasional rounds of showers and thunderstorms starting today will bring relief from dryness to the region and yield potential should stabilize or possibly increase overall during the next two weeks.
Technical analysis: A price downtrend is in place on the daily chart for November beans. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the July high of $12.56 1/2. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $11.21 3/4. First resistance is seen at $11.90 and then at $12.00. First support is seen at last week’s low of $11.67 1/4 and then at $11.50.
Soybean meal sees a steep price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at $320.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $311.00 and then at $315.00. First support is seen at $305.00 and then at $300.00.
Bean oil has seen a fledgling price downtrend on the daily bar chart negated today. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of 76.68 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 65.42 cents. First resistance is seen at 70.00 cents and then at 71.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 68.30 cents and then at last week’s low of 66.51 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You should be 35% forward sold on 2026 crop, with another 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 55% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: September SRW gained 3/4 cents to $6.40 1/2, near the daily low. September HRW fell 1/2 cent to $7.13 1/2, near the daily low. September spring wheat futures fell 9 1/2 cents to $6.70, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw tepid short covering today, along with some position evening ahead of Wednesday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report. Gains in the U.S. dollar index today also limited the upside for wheat. The wheat markets posted decent gains overnight on lingering concerns regarding grain shipments coming out of the Black Sea region. APK-Inform cut its 2026-27 Ukraine grain export forecast to 39.4 MMT, down from its previous projections of 43.1 MMT, citing the halt in grain exports through its Black Sea ports.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 421,277 during the week ended Aug. 6, down 82,523 MT from the previous week and within analysts’ expected pre-report range of 300,000 to 500,000 MT.
Wheat traders will closely examine this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports, which are expected to show the U.S. spring wheat crop in 54% good to excellent condition as of Sunday, compared to 55% in the same category last week. Winter wheat harvested is seen at 91% complete as of Sunday, with spring wheat 14% complete.
World Weather today said good harvest weather has been occurring in the central U.S. Plains and in parts of the Midwest. Some slowdown in fieldwork is expected due to more frequent rainfall in the coming week to ten days. No crop quality issues are likely, although drying will become more important over time. Spring wheat, barley and other small grains in the U.S. northern Plains and southern Canada’s Prairies are stressed and losing yield potential due to the lack of rain. Cool weather briefly this week and some showers will reduce crop stress, but it is unclear how significant the improvement will be. Most likely additional rain will be needed. Meantime, too much rain has been falling in parts of Russia’s New Lands, possibly raising the potential for wet weather disease. The wet bias is expected to prevail for the next 10 days. Good winter crop harvest weather continues in Russia’s Southern Region and parts of Ukraine. Western Europe weather has been warm and dry promoting winter crop harvesting. Dryness this season reduced yields in the west. Southeastern Europe has been drying out recently and that is helping to promote winter crop maturation and harvesting, but some spring crops are stressed. Australia’s wheat and barley are well established except in Queensland. Seasonal cooling is pushing some southern crops into semi-dormancy and any new moisture will be of use during the spring. Spring drought and excessive heat in eastern Australia are expected to present a threat to crops in Queensland and northeastern New South Wales, but that is still a few weeks away.
Technical analysis: Price downtrends are still in place on the daily bar charts for SRW and HRW. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at $6.80. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $6.59 1/2 and then at $6.70. First support is seen at last week’s low of $6.26 3/4 and then at $6.15.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at $7.50. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $7.35 and then at $7.50. First support is seen at last week’s low of $6.93 3/4 and then at $6.75.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 30% sold for 2026. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures lost 54 points to 83.86 cents, nearer the daily low after hitting a nearly three-month high early on.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures today saw routine profit-taking pressure from recent gains. A firmer U.S. dollar index was also a negative outside market for cotton today. Traders are also positioning ahead of Wednesday morning’s USDA supply and demand report.
Cotton traders will closely examine this afternoon’s weekly USDA crop progress reports.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see dry weather through much of the next two weeks and the occasional showers expected should not prevent significant drying from taking place, while warm to hot temperatures and short soil moisture cause stress to cotton to increase. Showers will be most organized Thursday into Sunday when much of the Panhandle and western and northern parts of west Texas receive at least some rain, with most daily totals too light to have a meaningful impact on soil or crop conditions. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will also see little rain through the next two weeks and cotton will develop favorably where significant rain fell recently in the southern Blacklands, Coastal Bend, and a few south Texas locations while crop stress increases elsewhere.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and are keeping alive a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the May high of 88.08 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 79.20 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 84.82 cents and then at 86.00 cents. First support is seen at 83.00 cents and then at 82.51 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.