Corn
Price action: December corn fell 5 1/2 cents to $4.60, nearer the daily low and closed at a three-week-low close.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw more selling pressure today as weather in the Corn Belt leans price-bearish. Technical selling was featured as prices are in a near-term downtrend. Some brokerages and analytical firms are starting to come out with their corn yield/production estimates for this year and they are higher than what USDA is forecasting.
USDA this morning reported daily U.S. corn sales of 120,000 MT to Mexico. Of the total, 30,000 MT is for delivery during 2026-27 and 90,000 MT during 2027-28.
Traders are looking forward to Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, which is expected to show U.S. corn sales of 900,000 to 1.5 million MT in all marketing years, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey.
World Weather Inc. today said milder temperatures and some periodic showers and thunderstorms in the all of the U.S. Midwest in the coming 10 days will be welcome. Crop stress in the northwest has been reduced, although soil moisture deficits will remain and that region will need to be closely monitored for dryness and crop stress later in August when warming returns. Europe crops will also continue stressed this week with low soil moisture in many areas, but nowhere more serious than in central and northern France and the southern United Kingdom. Warm to hot weather in central and southern Europe will add heat stress to the dryness issue in many areas from France to Slovakia, Romania, Ukraine and Greece.
Technical analysis: Corn market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close December prices above solid chart resistance at the July high of $4.92. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at this week’s low of $4.58 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.66 1/4 and then at $4.70. First support is seen at $4.58 1/4 and then at $4.55.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. Hedgers should have 40% forward sold and 20% protected with $4.80 strike December puts.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 90% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 50% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: November soybeans fell 3 cents to $11.74 3/4, near mid-range and hit a four-week low. September soybean meal lost $2.50 to $310.20, near mid-range and hit a four-week low. September soybean oil lost 48 points to 67.72 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean complex futures markets today saw mild technical selling pressure as prices are trapped in downtrends on the daily charts. Weather also leans price-bearish for beans.
China’s Sinograin sold about 67% of the 501,000 MT of imported soybeans offered at its second auction in recent weeks on Wednesday. Traders told Reuters they expect the state stockpiler to continue holding auctions in the coming weeks, as China is expected to meet a commitment to buy 23 MMT of U.S. soybeans annually through 2028.
Traders are looking forward to Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, which is expected to show U.S. soybean sales of 1 million to 2.2 million MT in all marketing years, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey.
World Weather Inc. today said that in the Midwest U.S. daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the next week may not bring enough rain to prevent many areas from drying down overall, but a lack of significant heat and moist soils will ensure crop development occurs favorably beyond the middle of the month in much of the region with a few exceptions. A close watch will continue on east-central and southeastern South Dakota and nearby Nebraska into northwestern Iowa as well as eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota where soil moisture is short and stress to crops will increase until significant rain falls. Recent rain induced some relief from dryness, but the soaking of rain needed to induce a lasting increase in soil moisture has not occurred and is not likely outside of a few pockets where locally heavy rain will fall. Strong showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Monday will likely bring additional relief from dryness to parts of the region and with another round of showers likely Aug. 14-19 yield potentials should stabilize or possibly increase during the next two weeks.
Technical analysis: A price downtrend is in place on the daily chart for November beans. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at the July high of $12.56 1/2. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $11.21 3/4. First resistance is seen at $11.90 and then at $12.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $11.67 1/4 and then at $11.50.
Soybean meal sees a steep price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at the July high of $334.30. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $312.60 and then at $315.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $308.70 and then at $305.00.
Bean oil sees a fledgling price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at the June high of 76.68 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 65.42 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 69.48 cents and then at 70.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 66.51 cents and then at 66.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You should be 35% forward sold on 2026 crop, with another 40% protected with November put options.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 55% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: September SRW rose 3 3/4 cents to $6.42 1/4, near mid-range. September HRW gained 6 1/2 cents to $7.13 1/2, near mid-range. September spring wheat futures fell 1 cent to $6.83 1/2, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw short covering and perceived bargain hunting today. The recent sell off in the U.S. dollar index has also limited selling interest in wheat.
Also supportive for wheat futures, Britain’s cereal harvest is on track to be the worst since records began in 1984, according to an analysis published on Wednesday, as crops face the driest and hottest spring-summer periods on record, notes Reuters.
Traders are looking forward to Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report, which is expected to show U.S. wheat sales of 200,000 to 400,000 MT in all marketing years, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey.
World Weather today said good harvest weather has been occurring in the central U.S. Plains and in parts of the Midwest. Some slowdown in fieldwork is expected due to more frequent rainfall in the coming week to 10 days. No crop quality issues are likely, although drying will become more important over time. Spring wheat, barley and other small grains in the U.S. northern Plains and southern Canada’s Prairies are stressed and losing yield potential due to the lack of rain. Cool weather briefly this week will reduce crop stress, but the heat is expected to return later this month. Some rain may fall during mid-week next week that could bring a little relief. Meantime, too much rain has been falling in parts of Russia’s New Lands, possibly raising the potential for wet weather disease. The wet bias is expected to prevail for the next 10 days. Good winter crop harvest weather continues in Russia’s Southern Region and parts of Ukraine. Western Europe weather has been warm and dry, promoting winter crop harvesting. Dryness this season reduced yields. Southeastern Europe has been drying out recently and that is helping to promote winter crop maturation and harvesting, but some spring crops will need rain soon.
Technical analysis: Fledgling price downtrends are still in place on the daily bar charts for SRW and HRW. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at $7.00. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $6.59 1/2 and then at $6.75. First support is seen at this week’s low of $6.32 and then at $6.20.
HRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing September prices above solid chart resistance at the July high of $7.77 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $6.75. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $7.26 1/4 and then at $7.40. First support is seen at this week’s low of $6.98 3/4 and then at $6.90.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 30% sold for 2026. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cash-only marketers: You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold. Remain patient on 2027 sales for now.
Cotton
Price action: December cotton futures rose 56 points to 83.02 cents, near mid-range and hit a nine-week high.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures today saw fresh technical buying today, amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. Record-high U.S. stock indexes this week and the recent decline in the U.S. dollar index are also positives for cotton futures. There is also talk in the marketplace that China’s government wants its farmers to grow less cotton and grow more corn and soybeans.
Traders are looking forward to Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see dry weather through much of the next two weeks and the infrequent showers expected should not prevent significant drying from taking place, while warm to hot temperatures and short soil moisture cause stress to cotton to increase. The Blacklands, south Texas, and the Coastal Bend will also see little rain through the next two weeks and cotton will develop favorably where significant rain fell recently in the southern Blacklands, Coastal Bend, and a few south Texas locations while crop stress increases elsewhere.
Technical analysis: December cotton futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and are keeping alive a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in December futures above technical resistance at the May high of 88.08 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 79.20 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 84.08 cents and then at 85.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 80.39 cents and then at 80.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are now 100% sold on old-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2025-crop. You are 60% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.