Corn
Price action: May corn futures fell 6 1/4 cents to $4.55 3/4, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw selling pressure amid a stronger U.S. dollar index and still somewhat elevated risk aversion in the general marketplace. Position evening was also featured ahead of USDA’s prospective plantings and quarterly grain stocks reports that are out Tuesday at 11 a.m. CT.
USDA reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1.79 MMT during the week ended March 26, down 86,873 MT from the previous week and above analysts’ pre-report range of expectations of 1.2 to 1.65 MMT. USDA also reported daily U.S. corn sales of 145,000 MT of corn to unknown destinations during 2025-26.
AgRural reported 99% of Brazil’s safrinha corn crop had been planted in the center-south, with all states having completed planting, with the exception of Parana.
World Weather Inc. today said most of the significant rain expected through this weekend will occur from central and eastern Santa Catarina and central and eastern Parana to northeastern to northwestern Brazil where the moisture will help to maintain favorable conditions for Safrinha corn in most areas while improving conditions for the crop in the drier areas. A timely round of rain will occur in southern Brazil and Paraguay Apr. 6-10, inducing notable improvements in crop and soil conditions while rain extends into much of the remainder of Brazil. In Argentina, favorable soil moisture in place in much of the country today along with rain through early next week will ensure favorable conditions for developing crops continue through the next two weeks while fieldwork is slowed and some areas see local flooding. A much drier weather pattern will occur Apr. 8-13, allowing for a resumption of fieldwork while soil conditions are favorable for developing crops.
Technical analysis: A price uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart for May corn. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close May prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $4.76. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.45. First resistance is seen at $4.60 and then at $4.65. First support is seen at $4.55 and then at $4.50.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans rose 1/2 cent to $11.59 3/4, near the daily low. May soybean meal lost $0.40 to $314.90, near mid-range. May soybean oil rose 106 points to 68.47 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean futures today saw tepid short covering and some position evening ahead of Tuesday’s all-important USDA planting intentions and quarterly grain stocks reports. Spreaders were again featured buying soybean oil and selling meal futures today. A stronger U.S. dollar index today did limit the upside in soybeans and meal, as did still somewhat elevated risk aversion in the general marketplace today.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 586,427 MT during the week ended March 26, down 528,284 MT from the previous week and short of the expected pre-report range of 600,000 MT to 1.25 MMT.
Brazilian farmers had harvested 75% of their 2025-26 soybean crop as of last Thursday, according to AgRural.
World Weather Inc. today said dryness in some interior southern Brazil production areas is expected to be eased in early April. Brazil’s center-west and northern center-south crop areas will continue to see a good mix of rain and sunshine, favoring all late-season crops. Argentina has become a little too wet recently in parts of the south and heavy rain in central Buenos Aires during the weekend likely induced some flooding. Fieldwork may be on hold for a while as additional rain impacts southern and west-central parts of the nation in this coming week.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical field. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing May prices above solid resistance at $12.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at $11.80 and then at $11.90. First support is seen at $11.50 and then at the March low of $11.45 1/4.
Soybean meal bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in May futures above solid technical resistance at the November high of $338.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of $307.60. First resistance comes in at $320.00 and then at $325.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $312.30 and then at $310.00.
Bean oil bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing May prices above solid technical resistance at the contract high of 69.91 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 63.50 cents. First resistance is seen at the contract high of 69.91 cents and then at 71.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 67.55 cents and then at 67.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW rose 2 cents to $6.07, nearer the daily high. May HRW fell 6 1/2 cents to $6.26 1/4, nearer the session low. May spring wheat rose 3 3/4 cents to $6.52.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets saw position evening ahead of Tuesday’s USDA planting intentions and quarterly grain stocks reports. Spreaders were featured unwinding long HRW, short SRW spreads today. Wheat-price-friendly gains in crude oil prices today were offset by a stronger U.S. dollar index.
USDA reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 364,219 during the week ended March 26, down 95,248 MT from the previous week and near the lower end of the pre-report range of 300,000 to 500,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, some shower and thunderstorm activity will occur in the next seven days, though much of this will be in the eastern half of the region. Most areas should receive at least some rain but any meaningful moisture will be limited mainly to the east, with net drying in much of the west. In the Northern Plains, an active weather pattern is expected in the next seven days with frequent rain and snow and generally cooler-biased temperatures. Almost all of the snowpack that was in the region has melted but will be regained to some extent later this week. The moisture from this will benefit the upcoming growing season.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, price uptrends on the daily bar charts have stalled. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $6.41 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.63 1/2. First resistance is seen at $6.16 and then at $6.25. First support is seen at $6.00 and then at $5.90.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $6.47 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.90. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $6.40 1/4 and then at $6.47 1/2. First support is seen at $6.20 and then at $6100.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton futures rose 73 points to 70.19 cents, near mid-range and hit a 5.5-month high.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market today saw more technical buying. Gains in crude oil today also helped out the cotton bulls. Cotton traders are awaiting Tuesday’s USDA Prospective Plantings Report.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will be dry through much of the next two weeks and the few infrequent showers that occur should not bring enough rain to prevent the moisture from quickly being lost to evaporation, especially in the mostly warm temperatures expected through at least the next week. The Blacklands, Coastal Bend, and south Texas will have some opportunities for beneficial rain Wednesday into Sunday and at least temporary improvements in soil moisture are likely, especially in the Blacklands, before drier weather beginning next week allows fieldwork to resume.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in May futures above technical resistance at 72.70 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 66.65 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 70.75 cents and then at 71.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 69.40 cents and then at 69.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 60% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 60% sold on 2025-crop. You are 25% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.