Corn
Price action: May corn futures fell 6 cents to $4.59 1/2, nearer the daily low and scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market today saw selling pressure from the steep drop in crude oil prices amid comments from President Trump that the war in Iran may be de-escalating. Some profit taking from the shorter-term futures traders was featured today.
USDA this morning reported daily sales of 102,000 MT of U.S. corn to Mexico during 2025-26. The agency also reported weekly U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1.7 MMT during the week ended March 19, up 29,349 MT from the previous week and within analysts’ pre-report range from 1.4 MMT to 2.05 MMT.
World Weather Inc. today said far southern Brazil to Paraguay to Mato Grosso to most of northeastern Brazil will receive additional rain into Thursday that will be important in southern Safrinha corn areas before a drier weather pattern occurs Friday into the first week of April in central and southern Brazil and Paraguay. Northern Brazil will be wettest during the next two weeks and fieldwork will be slowed while the rain maintains favorable conditions for Safrinha corn development. In Argentina, rain during the weekend and additional rain during the next two weeks should ensure soil moisture is favorable for developing crops through most of the period, while breaks between rounds of rain should allow fieldwork to advance with drying time needed in areas that received heavy rain during the weekend. Northwestern Argentina will be driest overall and will need rain again soon to ensure developing crops have adequate soil moisture.
Technical analysis: A price uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close May prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $4.76. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at $4.45. First resistance is seen at $4.65 and then at $4.70. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.56 1/2 and then at $4.50.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 60% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans rose 2 1/4 cents to $11.63 1/2, near mid-range. May soybean meal lost $1.40 to $326.60, nearer the daily low. May soybean oil rose 7 points to 65.58, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean futures today saw some mild short covering but gains were limited by the sell off in the corn and winter wheat markets. Technically oriented bulls are still worried about a bear flag pattern that has formed on the daily chart for May and July bean futures. Sharp losses in the crude oil futures market today limited the upside for the soy complex futures.
USDA this morning reported daily U.S. soybean sales of 161,120 MT of soybeans to Mexico during 2025-26. The agency also
reported weekly U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 1.1 MMT during the week ended March 19, up 120,517 MT from the previous week and near the upper end of the pre-report range of 600,000 MT to 1.15 MMT.
A delegation from Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry in Beijing began talks on Monday with China authorities on phytosanitary inspection rules for Brazilian soybeans, after complaints from exporters that Chinese demands were complicating the certification process, according to Reuters. The ministry said discussions were only starting and no decisions had been reached.
World Weather Inc. today said Brazil weather continues favorable for ongoing crop development. There is a need for greater rain in southern areas and some of that will be provided in the next two weeks, although resulting amounts and frequency will be light. Argentina received some heavy rain during the weekend resulting in local flooding. Argentina needs some drier weather for a while so that early season summer crop harvesting can advance once again.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical field. A bear flag pattern has formed on the daily bar chart for May and July soybeans. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing May prices above solid resistance at $12.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at $11.76 and then at $11.85. First support is seen at the March low of $11.45 1/4 and then at $11.36 1/2.
Soybean meal bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in May futures above solid technical resistance at the November high of $338.90. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of $307.60. First resistance comes in at $330.00 and then at the March high of $335.50. First support is seen at $323.00 and then at $320.00.
Bean oil bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing May prices above solid technical resistance at the March high of 69.91 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 60.00 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 67.15 cents and then at 68.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 64.22 cents and then at last week’s low of 63.50.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW fell 7 1/2 cents to $5.87 3/4, near mid-range and hit a two-week low. May HRW lost 3 cents to $6.03 1/4, near mid-range and hit a two-week low. May spring wheat futures closed a penny lower at $6.27.
Fundamental analysis: The SRW winter wheat futures market saw technical selling pressure today as near-term price uptrends have stalled out. Sharp losses in crude oil futures and solid losses in the corn futures market also weighed on the wheat markets today.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 458,411 MT during the week ended March 19, up 114,752 MT from the previous week and above the pre-report range of 250,000 to 450,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country record-breaking extreme March heat has been notably drying out the soil in the region and greater rainfall is needed for unirrigated winter wheat to properly develop. Rainfall in the next seven days will still be lacking in most areas and extreme heat will return Wednesday into Thursday before another cold front arrives. Greater rainfall is expected in the second week of the outlook as the weather pattern goes through a transition. However, the rain may be mostly in eastern production areas. The rain that does occur will be very important. The extreme heat of the weekend and that expected again during mid-week this week was and will be stressful to livestock and crops. The lack of moisture in the soil and wild swings in temperature are likely stressing crops especially those injured by adverse weather during the winter. In the Northern Plains, very little precipitation is expected in the next seven days. The region is doing okay for soil moisture except in Montana, where the need for greater precipitation is increasing. More record-breaking warmth is likely in southwestern production areas Wednesday and possibly Sunday. A brief period of unusually cool conditions is expected Thursday and Friday – mostly in northern parts of the region.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Price uptrends on the daily bar charts have stalled out, however. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $6.41 3/4. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.63 1/2. First resistance is seen at $6.00 and then at today’s high of $6.06 1/2. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.77 3/4 and then at $5.63 1/2.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing May prices above solid chart resistance at the March high of $6.47 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.70. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.17 3/4 and then at $6.25. First support is seen at today’s low of $5.91 1/4 and then at $5.80.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton futures fell 13 points to 67.18 cents, nearer the session low.
Fundamental analysis: The cotton futures market today saw mild profit-taking pressure and weak long liquidation following last week’s gains. Sharply lower crude oil prices also weighed on cotton futures today, as did price weakness in corn and wheat futures.
World Weather Inc. today said south Texas and northeastern Mexico need rain to support planting this month and in April. A few showers are possible in early April, but a general soaking seems unlikely prior to that time. West Texas also needs rain and only light amounts are expected – most of which will occur in the first days of April. California has fallen back to a drier bias after some rain fell recently. Both southern California and Arizona would benefit from additional moisture. Timely rain has occurred in recent weeks in the U.S. Delta and southeastern states; however, soil moisture is still a little low from northern Florida and southeastern Alabama to North Carolina and timely rain will be needed later this spring to ensure the best environment for planting, emergence and establishment.
Technical analysis: The cotton bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but a price uptrend on the daily bar chart is now in jeopardy. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in May futures above technical resistance at 70.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 65.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 67.97 cents and then at 68.50 cents. First support is seen at 66.50 cents and then at 66.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 60% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. You are 10% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time
Cash-only marketers: You are 60% sold on 2025-crop. You are 25% sold for 2026-crop sales at this time.