Market Snapshot | March 11, 2024

Corn futures are mostly a penny to 2 cents lower.

• Corn futures are favoring the downside amid pressure from U.S. dollar strength and fading crude oil futures.
• Forecasts for Brazil’s center-west and interior south is still drier biased today relative to that of Friday, with crop moisture stress likely on the rise into late month, according to World Weather Inc.
• AgRural reported safrinha corn planting was 93% complete as of last Thursday, ahead of 82% for the same date last year.
• USDA reported export inspections of 1.122 MMT (44.2 million bu.) during the week ended March 7, which were down 24,170 MT from the previous week, but near the top-end of the pre-report range of 685,000 MT to 1.25 MMT.
• May corn is trading within Friday’s range in consolidative trade between the 40-day moving average of $4.42 1/4 and the 10- and 20-day moving averages of $4.30 1/2 and $4.29 3/4.

Soybean futures are mostly 1 to 3 cents lower, while soymeal is around $4.00 lower. May soyoil is more than 60 points higher.

• Soymeal weakness is weighing on soybeans, though soyoil gains are limiting selling pressure.
• Brazil’s soybean harvest was 55% complete as of last Thursday, according to AgRural. While that’s ahead of last year’s 53% for the same date, the pace has slowed due to rainy weather in areas with mature soybeans left to harvest.
• USDA reported export inspections of 706,334 MT (26.0 million bu.) during the week ended March 7, which were down 454,058 MT from the previous week but within the pre-report range of 500,000 MT to 1.15 MMT.
• Malaysia’s palm oil stocks at the end of February dwindled to their lowest level in seven months as production hit a 10-month low, offsetting the slowdown in exports, reported the industry regulator earlier today.
• May soybeans are being limited by resistance at the 10-day moving average, currently at $11.89 3/4, while initial support lies at $11.74 1/4.

Winter wheat futures are mostly a 7 to 9 cents higher, while HRS is around a nickel to 6 cents higher.

• SRW wheat buyers have stepped in after notching a new contract low following a third straight day of cancellations from China.
• Private exporters reported cancellations of 264,000 MT of SRW wheat for delivery to China during 2023-24. This is the third straight day of cancellations, bringing total cancellations to 504,000 MT.
• Statistics Canada reported total wheat seeding intentions of 27.0 million acres, above expectations of 26.7 million acres and in-line with last year’s plantings.
• USDA reported export inspections of 402,874 MMT (14.8 million bu.), which were down 44,576 MT from the previous week but within the pre-report range of 300,000 to 500,000 MT.
• May SRW forged a fresh contract low at $5.23 1/2 before bouncing. Support is at $5.18 3/4, while initial resistance stands at $5.45.

Live cattle are narrowly mixed, while feeders are moderately lower.

• Nearby live cattle are marginally higher amid mild corrective buying efforts in the wake of Friday’s losses.
• Last week’s cash cattle average is likely up from the previous week’s average of $183.30. The average as of Thursday was $185.15.
• Wholesale beef rose Friday, with Choice firming 43 cents to $307.04, while Select rose $1.17 to $297.43. That’s the highest price for Choice beef since late October of last year, while Select is the highest since late June of 2023. Packer margins have improved but remain negative.
• April live cattle are pivoting around the 10-day moving average, currently at $187.32, with initial support at the 20-day moving average of $186.95. Initial resistance stands at $188.23.

Lean hogs are posting slight- to moderate losses at midsession.

• April hog futures are moderately lower amid further signs the cash index is becoming exhausted near-term.
• The CME lean hog index is unchanged at $81.48 as of March 7, hinting at a potential stall of the seasonal rally since the beginning of the year.
• The pork cutout value rose 96 cents Friday to $92.11 amid gains in all cuts except primal loins. Movement totaled 306.6 loads.
• The U.S. exported 58.78 million lbs. of pork during January. While that was down 56.1 million lbs. (8.7%) from December, which was the highest monthly tally since May 2021, pork shipments increased 32.0 million lbs. (5.8%) from January 2023.
• April lean hogs tested support at $83.95 and traded at the lowest intraday level in nearly a month, though support at the 40-day moving average of $83.21 is limiting a move lower. Initial resistance stands at the 20-day moving average of $85.26, which is backed by the 10-day of $85.59.