Weekly Fertilizer Bulletin | Nitrogen Rejects Last Week's Firmness

Posted on 08/27/2018 4:32 PM

 

  • Fertilizers were mostly lower with anhydrous ammonia and UAN32% sharply lower.
  • Our Nutrient Composite Index softened 5.25 points to 554.74. This compares to last year's 498.06.

Nitrogennitrogen indices chart

  • Anhydrous ammonia led overall declines this week, falling a massive $20.11 per short ton.
  • UAN32% was down sharply as well, off a little more than 8 bucks on the week.
  • Urea was led lower by softness in North Dakota -- nitrogen price softness in the Dakotas will not only be a theme in this week's analysis, but we also take it as a harbinger of price softness ahead.
  • After last week's across the board price strength in the nitrogen segment, this week's aggressive move to the downside fuels our forecasts for lower prices by harvest.

Phosphate

  • DAP and MAP each firmed on the week with DAP leading to the upside.
  • According to MosaicCo, wholesale phosphate prices firmed at all U.S. terminals and ran sideways at offshore locations.p and k indices chart
  • Wholesale sulphur is unchanged on the week and continue to add support to phosphate prices.

Potash

  • Potash prices fell 13 cents per short ton on the week.
  • With anhydrous falling so sharply this week, potash is now at a steep premium to NH3 when considered on an indexed basis.
  • Wholesale potash prices moved sideways on the week ended August 24 at U.S. terminals.

Corn Futures

  • December 2019 corn futures closed Friday August 24 at $3.92 putting expected new-crop revenue (eNCR) at $634.91 per acre -- off $20.76 per acre on the week.
  • With our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) at 554.74 this week, the eNCR/NCI spread narrowed points and now stands at -80.17.
Fertilizer
8/13/18
8/20/18
Change
Current Week
Fertilizer
Anhydrous
$506.96
$508.20
+$1.24
$488.09
Anhydrous
DAP
$492.63
$501.82
+$9.19
$505.36
DAP
MAP
$523.81
$518.98
-$4.83
$521.33
MAP
Potash
$348.24
$353.26
+$5.02
$353.13
Potash
UAN28
$249.41
$249.95
+54 cents
$247.53
UAN28
UAN32
$268.15
$270.31
+$2.16
$262.00
UAN32
Urea
$372.49
$373.73
+$1.24
$372.14
Urea
Composite
556.95
559.99
-5.25
554.74
Composite

nci chart

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