Weekly Fertilizer Bulletin | South American Weather Risk Strikes Fertilizers

Posted on 03/05/2018 5:06 PM

 

  • Once again our weekly survey yielded higher fertilizer prices on the week.
  • Our Nutrient Composite Index firmed 2.67 points to 543.67, nearly twice last week's gain. This compares to last year's 528.32.
  • You should be 100% filled on nitrogen, phosphate and potassium for spring/summer applications.

Nitrogennitrogen indices chart

  • UAN32% led gains in the nitrogen segment this week.
  • Last week, our nitrogen price leader was UAN28%. This week, 28% posts just a 51 cent gain by the short ton.
  • Urea added about $2-and-a-half bucks but remains priced well above NH3 and UAN solutions on an indexed basis.
  • The fertilizer industry appears to have caught wind of South American crop concerns and there is an article floating around already this week. Those industry watchers have drawn a straight line between crop concerns, higher crop prices, and greater demand for fertilizer. If they are correct, the result would likely be a continuation of the current uptrend in nitrogen here in the United States.

Phosphate

  • Phosphate prices were higher on the week.
  • MAP led gains on a sharp rise in Illinois pricing, further stretching the already wide DAP/MAP spread.
  • The DAP/MAP spread lies at 35.10 on an expected $15-$20 bucks.
  • DAP has been stubborn to follow MAP higher, but both are priced at a sharp premium to NH3 on an indexed basis.pand k indices
  • There is little price relief in sight. If the news of a crop shortfall in Argentina is realized, it would support phosphates as much as it would nitrogen.

Potash

  • Potash prices fell this week and, on an indexed basis, is priced below NH3 by about 3.00 points.
  • Wholesale potash moved sideways at NOLA and in the Corn Belt this week according to MosaicCo.
  • Potash fell this week on a decent decline in Minnesota pricing.
  • Indexed potash prices have been very closely tied to anhydrous pricing for several weeks. We will discuss this further in this week's P&KToday.

Corn Futures

  • December 2018 corn futures closed Friday, March 2 at $4.04 putting expected new-crop revenue (eNCR) at $644.30 per acre -- up $11.90 per acre on the week.
  • With our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) at 543.31 this week, the eNCR/NCI spread favors fertilizer buyers, widening 9.23 points and now stands at -100.99.
Fertilizer
2/20/18
2/28/18
Change
Current Week
Fertilizer
Anhydrous
$503.95
$505.83
+$3.04
$508.88
Anhydrous
DAP
$472.54
$472.12
+4 cents
$472.16
DAP
MAP
$504.88
$506.71
+56 cents
$507.26
MAP
Potash
$342.83
$342.96
-$1.24
$341.72
Potash
UAN28
$228.17
$230.21
+51 cents
$230.72
UAN28
UAN32
$259.72
$260.65
+$6.00
$266.65
UAN32
Urea
$366.46
$367.36
+$2.62
$369.98
Urea
Composite
539.02
540.64
+2.67
543.31
Composite

nci chart

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