Market Snapshot | June 13, 2023

Corn is 5 to 8 cents higher at midmorning, with new-crop posting stronger gains.

Corn futures are extending higher amid USDA’s lower-than-expected crop ratings and persisting drier-biased forecasts for the next 10 days.
USDA rated the corn crop 61% “good” to “excellent,” down three percentage points from the previous week. When plugged into the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop fell 4.8 points to 360.9, which is 18.8 points below year-ago.
Crop Consultant, Dr. Michael Cordonnier cut his corn yield by 1 bu. to 178 bu. per acre, noting moisture stress across 45% of U.S. corn acres. He now projects the U.S. corn crop at 14.86 billion bushels.
World Weather Inc. notes no excessive heat is likely in the Midwest, although the region will trend a little warmer later this week and stay seasonably warm into next week. The forecaster indicates precip will remain limited in many areas over the next week.
Conab increased its Brazilian corn crop peg by around 200,000 MT to a record 125.7 MMT.
July corn has reached as high as $6.25 before pulling back a little from that level. The 100-day moving average of $6.21 3/4 continues to serve up resistance. Meanwhile, initial support lies at$6.09 1/2.

Soybeans are mostly 26 to 31 cents higher. July meal futures are around $4.00 higher and July soyoil is around 80 points higher.

The soy complex is notably higher as crop ratings slipped for a second straight week.
USDA rated 59% of the soybean crop as “good” to “excellent,” down three points from the previous week. When USDA’s condition ratings are plugged into the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the soybean crop dropped 7.3 points to 350.6, and is 20.4 points below a year-ago.
Dr. Michael Cordonnier trimmed his soybean yield forecast by 0.5 bu. to 51.5 bu. per acre, and now forecasts the soybean crop at 4.48 billion bushels.
Conab reports farmers in Brazil will reap 155.7 MMT of soybeans in the 2022-23 cycle, up 24% from last season.
July soybeans have marked an intraday high of $14.03, just above initial resistance at $14.02 1/4. Support remains at $13.63 1/4.

SRW wheat is 7 to 9 cents higher, while HRW is 2 to 3 cents higher. HRS wheat is mostly 4 to 8 cents higher.

Wheat futures are higher on spillover from the corn and soybean markets. A weaker U.S. dollar is also lending support.
USDA cut its spring wheat crop rating by four points to 60% “good” to “excellent,” which was more than traders expected. On our weighted CCI, the spring wheat crop fell 13.6 points over the past week to 356.6, though that was still 3.2 points above year-ago at this time.
The United Nations said the breach of the huge Soviet-era dam on the Dnipro River in Ukraine will have a huge impact on global food security, lead to a rise in food prices and could cause drinking water problems for hundreds of thousands.
July SRW wheat has reached as high as $6.44 3/4, with $6.48 serving as initial resistance, while support remains at $6.24 1/4.

Live cattle and feeders are posting losses at midmorning.

Live cattle are edging lower despite Monday’s strong price action and supportive cash fundamentals.
Cash cattle averaged a record $188.75 last week, a $6.72 surge. Packers bought 110,000 head of cattle last week, with 35,000 head of the total purchased for deferred delivery—the largest negotiated cash trade this year.
Wholesale beef prices continued to climb, with Choice up $4.50 to $337.43, while Select jumped $4.53 to $310.24, taking the Choice/Select spread to $27.19. Movement was light at 80 loads for the day.
August live cattle are pivoting around the 10-day moving average of $172.45, while support lies at $171.80. Monday’s high of $173.60 is serving as initial resistance.

Lean hogs are mostly firmer at midmorning.

Lean hog futures encountered mild profit-taking initially this morning but have turned mostly firmer amid support from rising cash prices.
The CME lean hog index is up another 45 cents to $84.73 as of June 9, extending its seasonal rise.
Pork cutout value fell 19 cents on Monday to $88.20, as weakness in hams and loins offset gains in the other cuts.
August lean hogs are trading within the upper end of Monday’s range, with the 40-day moving average of $85.96 providing support, while resistance stands at $88.92.

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