Market Snapshot | June 9, 2023

Corn is mostly 6 to 8 cents lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures are lower ahead of USDA’s supply and demand updates.
• USDA will likely increase its forecast for old-and new-crop ending stocks for corn in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report at 11 a.m. CT. Cuts to old-crop use are expected, which will raise carryover and likely trickle down through the 2023-24 balance sheet.
• Advertised rainfall in the Midwest over the next 10 days will reduce cross stress, along with cooler weather, but until significant rain falls there will be some ongoing concern over long-term crop development potential, notes World Weather Inc.
• July corn is trading inside the previous session’s range, with the 40-day moving average of $5.96 1/4 serving as solid support, while Thursday’s high of $6.13 1/4 is serving up resistance.

Soybeans are as much as 19 cents higher, with the July contract leading the way. July meal futures are more than $5.00 lower and July soyoil is around 160 points higher.

• Nearby soybeans are marking solid gains after fresh supportive demand news.
• USDA reported a daily sale of 197,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2022-23 marketing year.
• Analysts expect an increase in old- and new-crop ending stocks in USDA’s WASDE Report, which will likely push 2023-24 carryover higher.
• As the rest of the world battles inflation, China’s factory price deflation is accelerating. China’s producer price index (PPI) fell for an eight consecutive month in May, down 4.6% annually. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% from year-ago last month, up from a 0.1% increase in April.
• July soybeans have gained momentum above initial resistance of $13.72 1/2, with $13.82 serving as additional resistance. Support continues to hold at $13.52 3/4.

SRW wheat is 1 to 3 cents lower while HRW is 6 to 8 cents lower. HRS wheat is mostly 4 to 6 cents lower.

• SRW wheat futures are chopping around unchanged, while HRW wheat posts moderate losses in anticipation of the government’s winter wheat production estimates.
• Changes to the new-crop balance sheet today will be largely driven by any adjustment to USDA’s winter wheat crop estimate, which is expected to increase slightly from last month.
• World Weather Inc. reports high pressure will remain aloft over the central Canadian Prairies and influence a part of the U.S. Northern Plains and far northern Midwest this weekend through the middle of next week, limiting rainfall and producing warmer-than-normal temperatures.
• Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin said a blast that damaged an ammonia pipeline between Russia and Ukraine would be considered during talks on the Black Sea grain deal.
• July SRW wheat is pivoting around yesterday’s high, with solid support lying at the 10-, 20- and 40-day moving averages of $6.24 1/2, $6.23 1/2 and $6.20 1/4, respectively. Wednesday’s high of $6.32 1/4 is serving as resistance.

Live cattle and feeders are each working solidly higher.

• Live cattle are rebounding after two consecutive days of corrective selling. Support is coming from strengthening cash fundamentals and the big discounts futures hold to the cash market.
• Cash cattle trade so far this week has averaged around $190.00, up sharply from last week’s $182.03 average.
• Choice beef prices climbed another $3.54 on Thursday to $328.73, while Select firmed $2.54 to $304.10, taking the Choice/Select spread to $24.63. Movement totaled 109 loads for the day.
• August live cattle are trading mostly within the lower range of Thursday’s session, with support lying at $171.90 and initial resistance at $173.63.

Lean hogs are mostly higher, with the July and August contracts posting the strongest gains.

• Lean hogs are higher as cash fundamentals continue to strengthen.
• The CME lean hog index is up another 76 cents to $83.80 as of June 7, extending the nearly seven-week seasonal climb to the highest level since late November.
• The pork cutout value remains in a general uptrend during the same period but has struggled to find sustained retailer buying in the mid- to upper-$80.00 range. On Thursday, pork cutout rose 53 cents to $85.68, while movement totaled 290.7 loads.
• August lean hogs have held above the 20-day moving average of $82.09 and have edged above resistance at $83.15. Additional resistance stands at $83.875.