Market Snapshot | May 5, 2023

Corn futures are 4 to 6 cents higher at midmorning.

Corn futures are being supported by a rebound in crude oil futures and strong gains in the wheat complex.
China received its first cargo of corn from South Africa this week, Xinhua news reported. A 53,000-MT cargo was purchased by state-owned grain trader COFCO and will be sold to domestic feed makers.
World Weather Inc. Notes all areas of the Plains and Midwest will receive some rains over the next two weeks. The northeastern Plains and upper Midwest will see scattered rains during the weekend, with another storm moving in during the middle of next week.
Anec estimates Brazilian corn exports will reach 324,070 MT in May versus 1.09 MMT a year ago.

July corn has pushed above the 10-day moving average at $5.91 3/4 as well as resistance at $5.94 1/4. Further resistance stands at $5.99 1/2. Initial support lies at $5.86 1/2.

Soybeans are 8 to 15 cents higher, while July meal futures are around $1.00 higher. July soyoil is around 160 points higher.

Soybeans are marking corrective gains, with soyoil leading the complex higher from solid crude oil gains.

Anec estimates Brazilian soybean exports will reach 12.08 MMT in May versus 10.27 MMT a year ago, while meal exports are estimated at 2.2 MMT for the month, up from May 2022 shipments of 1.89 MMMT.
Anec reports Brazil’s grain storage deficit is hitting local soybean prices, with ports working near maximum capacity.
July soybeans have reached as high as $14.38 3/4, pushing above resistance at $14.25 3/4 and $14.33 3/4. Next resistance stands at $14.44 1/4. Initial support lies near $14.15 1/4.

SRW wheat is mostly 11 to 12 cents higher, while HRW and HRS futures are posting 20-plus cent gains.

Wheat futures are charging higher as traders’ global supply concerns increase amid the coming deadline of the Black Sea grain deal.
U.S. HRW wheat areas will get a good mix of rain and sunshine during the next two weeks supporting normal crop development, though southwestern areas will continue drier than usual over the next week, according to World Weather.
The pace of shipments from Ukraine via the Black Sea grain deal has slowed amid concerns ships could be stalled if a deal is not renewed, according to Reuters.
Russia cut its wheat export tax for May 12-16 to 5,279.20 ($68.53) rubles per metric ton based on an indicative price of $279.70. That’s down from 5,573.2 rubles per metric ton previously.

July SRW wheat have tested resistance at $6.54, with further resistance at $6.63 1/4. Initial support lies at $6.41 1/2.

Live cattle are marking slight- to moderate gains, while feeders are mostly lower.

While cash prices have dropped for three straight weeks following the all-time high, traders’ attitudes are overly pessimistic given bullish supply fundamentals.
Choice boxed beef rose 43 cents on Thursday to $309.52, while Select firmed 37 cents to $287.49, taking the Choice/Select spread to $22.03. Movement increased to 129 loads. Though Choice beef has dropped $1.92 from its recent high, the market is holding up well considering the elevated Choice beef/pork cutout ratio of 3.9.
June live cattle have edged above resistance at $162.17 and $162.76, with $163.17 serving as the next level of resistance. Initial support lies around $162.76.

Lean hogs are posting heavy losses at midsession.

Lean hogs are sharply lower despite improving cash fundamentals.
The CME lean hog index rose another 46 cents, marking gains in six of the last eight days. Today’s quote of $74.24 as of May 3 is $3.06 off the April low and the highest since the first trading day last month.
The pork cutout value rose 5 cents on Thursday to $80.12, with prices struggling to pull away from the low $80 range despite being a discount to beef.
June lean hogs gapped lower to begin the session and are hovering around support around $86.63, with additional support at $86.12. Initial resistance is at Thursday’s close of $87.15.

Tags