Market Snapshot | March 20, 2023

Nearby corn has worked off the overnight lows but continues to take spillover losses from the wheat and soy complex.
AgRural estimates safrinha corn planting was 91% completed as of last Thursday, behind last year’s pace of 97% due to delays in Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais and Paraná. Producers will continue to plant safrinha corn during the second half of March but there will be acreage reductions in some regions.
Central and northern Argentina will see frequent rain through the next 10 days and significant improvements in soil moisture will result while some late-developing crops will benefit from the moisture as well, though the rain will come too late for most crops, according to World Weather.
The U.S. was China’s top supplier of corn in the first two months of the year, with 2.35 MMT arriving during January and February combined, a 22% increase from the same period last year.
USDA reported export inspections of 1.189 MMT (46.8 million bu.) for week ended March 16, which was up from the previous week by 173,491 MT and near the high-end of the pre-report range of estimates from 600,000 MT and 1.475 MMT.
May corn is pivoting around initial support of $6.30. Initial resistance stands at the 20-day moving average of $6.36 1/4.

Soybeans are mixed at midsession, while May meal futures are around $3.00 lower. May soyoil is around 50 points higher.

Soybeans have turned mixed at midsession, with nearby contracts favoring the upside after facing pressure earlier in the session.
AgRural reports Brazil’s soybean harvest advanced to 62% completed as of last Thursday, which continued to trail last year’s pace of 69% by the same period last year.
World Weather Inc. notes Mato Grosso and nearby areas will see frequent rain through this weekend, extending delays to soybean harvesting and safrinha corn planting before showers become less frequent and lighter March 27-April 3 and conditions for fieldwork improves.
China’s soybean imports from the U.S. rose 15.4% in the first two months of the year, as delays in harvesting of top-supplier Brazil prompted buyers to purchase more U.S. beans.
Malaysian palm oil futures fell for a third straight session on Monday to their lowest closing price in nearly seven weeks, led lower by weakness in rival vegoils and global economic concerns.
USDA reported soybean export inspections of 716,618 MT (26.3 million bu.) for week ended March 16, up 83,251 MT from the previous week and near the top-end of pre-report expectations ranging from 350,000 to 800,000 MT.
May soybeans have edged below initial support of $14.65, with $14.53 1/2 serving as stronger support. Initial resistance stands at the 100-day moving average of $14.88 1/2.

SRW wheat futures are mostly 8 to 9 cents lower, while HRW is around a nickel lower. Spring wheat is mostly 5 to 6 cents lower.

Winter wheat futures are lower amid looming macroeconomic concerns as investor confidence wanes.
The Black Sea grain deal was renewed on Sunday for at least 60 days, while Ukraine officials contend the initiative will be extended for another 120 days. Russia has stated they will not extend the renewal in May unless issues around the Swift financial messaging system are resolved, and other restrictions are lifted.
Some relief is possible in the dry areas of Nebraska, northern Kansas and northeastern Colorado in the next few weeks, notes World Weather.
USDA reported wheat export inspections totaling 374,224 MT (13.8 million bu.) for week ended March 16, up 117,323 MT from the previous week and near mid-range of pre-report expectations ranging from 200,000 to 500,000 MT.
SRW wheat is trading narrowly within the previous session’s range, with the 20-day moving average of $7.07 1/4 serving as resistance, while initial support lies at $6.91 1/2.

Live cattle are mixed while feeders are posting modest gains.

Nearby live cattle are slightly lower as economic fears grow.
Friday’s Cattle of Feed Report was largely neutral with the March 1 inventory down 4.5% from year-ago, which was in line with pre-report expectations. Placements and marketings in February were short of the average pre-report estimate at 7.2% and 4.9% under year-ago levels.
The average cash cattle price was lower last week, with the official figure out later this morning expected to around $1 lower from the previous week.
Choice boxed beef prices dropped another 60 cents on Friday to $283.35, while Select rose 68 cents to $272.44.
April live cattle gapped higher but have filled the gap. Resistance is at the 50-day moving average of $163.16, while initial support lies at $161.70.

April lean hogs are lower as global economic pressure casts a negative tone across futures.
The CME lean hog index is up 6 cents to $80.01 as of March 16.
Pork cutout value fell $3.54 on Friday to $80.95, led by an over $8 drop in bellies, while movement was only 245.6 loads on the day.
China imported 380,000 MT of pork in January and February combined, up 35.8% from the same period in 2022. China’s pork imports increased late last year and are expected to this year, as the country battles an outbreak of African swine fever.
April lean hogs gapped lower at the open and has traded as low as $77.75, breaching initial support near $78.53. Additional support lies at $77.19, while initial resistance stands near $80.98.

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