Market Snapshot | December 23, 2022

Corn futures are 3 to 6 cents higher at midsession.

• Corn futures extended this week’s climb to three-week highs behind strength in crude oil and short-covering ahead of the three-day Christmas holiday weekend.
• USDA reported a daily sale of 150,000 MT of corn to Mexico during the 2022-23 marketing year.
• Abundant rains are expected to bring relief to Argentina’s parched cropland in coming days, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said. An estimated 51.8% of the corn crop was planted, 8.4 percentage points behind last year’s level.
• In Brazil, timely rainfall is expected in most of the nation’s crop areas during the next two weeks, World Weather Inc. said. Some net drying is possible in the far south and parts of Paraguay through the weekend, but timely rain will resume next week.
• March corn pushed above the 40-day moving average of $6.64 overnight and reached $6.67 3/4, the contract’s highest intraday price since $6.69 on Dec. 1. Further resistance is seen at the 50- and 100-day moving averages, which converge around $6.69.

Soybeans are 12 to 14 cents higher, nearby soymeal is about $5 higher and soyoil is mostly firmer.

• Soybean futures are higher behind fresh export business and gains in the crude oil market, which is up more than $5 for the week.
• USDA reported a daily sale of 124,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to “unknown destinations” during the 2022-23 marketing year.
• The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange rated Argentina’s soybean crop 12% good/excellent (down seven points from last week), 63% normal (up two points) and 25% poor (up five points).
• Soybean planting in Argentina remains behind last year’s pace due in part to lack of rain, the exchange said. Farmers have so far planted 60.6% of a planned 16.7 million hectares of soybeans, 12.6 percentage points behind progress at this time last year.
• March soybean futures pushed slightly above Thursday’s high of $14.87 3/4 before fading slightly and currently is little changed for the week after ending last week at $14.83 3/4.

Wheat futures are higher, led by gains of 11 to 14 cents in SRW contracts.

• Wheat futures extended overnight gains to post three-week highs amid strengthening technicals and concerns extreme cold in the U.S. Plains may damage crops.
• Bitter cold temps continued to grip much of North America Thursday and early today, with temperatures dropping to -40 degrees Fahrenheit in Montana and subzero readings as far south as the Texas Panhandle and northern Oklahoma, World Weather said. U.S. HRW wheat “was vulnerable to a little damage the past two days because of bitter cold and snow-free conditions,” the forecaster said.
• Russia’s wheat export tax for Dec. 28-Jan. 10 will be 4,160.9 rubles ($61.09) per MT based on an indicative price of $312.80. That’s up sharply from a rate of 3,333.8 rubles per MT the previous week and the highest rate since the last week of August.
• March SRW wheat rose slightly above Thursday’s high to reach $7.77 3/4, the contract’s highest intraday price since $7.83 on Dec. 2, and is poised for a second consecutive weekly advance after ending last week at $7.53 1/2.

Live cattle are mixed and feeder cattle are weaker at midmorning.

• Live cattle futures are slightly firmer behind strength in wholesale beef and a longer-term outlook for tight supplies should limit price declines.
• Light cash cattle trade was reported Thursday, with prices around $155 in the Southern Plains and $158 in Nebraska – fully steady with last week in both locations, though neither packers nor feedlot operators showed much urgency to move cattle..
• Tyson Foods Inc. said it suspended and reduced operations at some U.S. meat facilities Thursday due to a winter storm. Tyson scaled back operations to protect employees and animals. In Kansas, the National Weather Service warned of “dangerously cold” wind chills reaching -40 Fahrenheit, though temperatures were expected to rise Friday.
• Choice beef cutout values rose 35 cents Thursday to $265.21, the highest daily average since Aug. 16.
• USDA’s Cold Storage Report showed beef stocks at the end of November at 521.9 million lbs., up 11.6 million lbs. from October. The five-year average during the month was a 3.5-million-lb. increase. Beef stocks rose 31.5 million lbs. (6.4%) from November 2021 and were 25.9 million lbs. (5.2%) above the five-year average.
• USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report after today’s close is expected to show the Dec. 1 feedlot inventory down 2.8% from last year, with placements anticipated to drop 4.2% and markets expected to rise 0.9%, based on a Reuters survey.
• February live cattle have failed so far today to top Thursday’s high of $157.75 but are on track for a firm weekly gain after ending last week at $155.775.

Hog futures are mostly lower, led by a drop of more than $1 in the February contract.

• Lean hog futures are under pressure from continued cash market weakness but are still on track for a firm weekly gain.
• The CME lean hog index is down 90 cents to $79.67 (as of Dec. 21), the lowest since Jan. 25. February futures are currently about $8 above the index, which likely is limiting buying interest.
• Wholesale pork rebounded from an 11-month low, as cutout values rose $1.22 Thursday to $85.49 on strong movement of 309 loads.
• USDA reported nationwide pork stocks totaling 454.2 million lbs. at the end of November, down 55.5 million lbs. from October, slightly greater than the five-year average decline of 52.7 million lbs. during the month. Pork stocks increased 52.0 million lbs. (12.9%) from November 2021 but were 27.2 million lbs. (5.6%) below the five-year average.
• USDA’s Hogs & Pigs Report this afternoon is expected to show the U.S. hog herd contracted 1.5% from year-ago as of Dec. 1. The breeding herd is expected to be 0.2% smaller than last year, while the market hog inventory is anticipated to be down 1.6%.
• February lean hogs are trading within the previous session’s range and on track for a weekly gain after ending last week at $85.775.