Key acreage, grain stocks data coming March 31
Fewer corn acres, more soybean seedings expected... USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report at 11 a.m. CT on Thursday is widely expected to show farmers intend to plant fewer acres to corn this year and more soybean seedings. Based on the average pre-report estimates from a Reuters survey, corn acres are expected to decline about 1.4 million acres to 92.0 million acres and soybean area is likely to expand by about 1.5 million acres to 88.7 million acres. But the range of estimates is wide for both. Traders also expect all wheat acres to rise to nearly 47.8 million acres, including 34.4 million acres of winter wheat, 11.8 million acres of other spring wheat and 1.7 million acres of durum. Cotton seedings are expected to decline modestly from last year to 12.0 million acres.
|
Expectations for |
|
|
Corn – million acres |
|
|
Average est. |
92.001 |
|
Range |
89.700-93.500 |
|
Pro Farmer/Doane survey |
91.900 |
|
USDA final 2021 |
93.357 |
|
|
|
|
Soybeans – million acres |
|
|
Average est. |
88.727 |
|
Range |
86.000-92.208 |
|
Pro Farmer/Doane survey |
87.800 |
|
USDA final 2021 |
87.195 |
|
|
|
|
All wheat – million acres |
|
|
Average est. |
47.771 |
|
Range |
45.900-48.892 |
|
Pro Farmer/Doane survey |
48.500 |
|
USDA final 2021 |
46.703 |
|
|
|
|
Winter wheat – million acres |
|
|
Average est. |
34.382 |
|
Range |
33.650-35.600 |
|
Pro Farmer/Doane survey |
34.400 |
|
USDA final 2021 |
33.648 |
|
|
|
|
Other spring wheat – million acres |
|
|
Average est. |
11.801 |
|
Range |
10.800-12.450 |
|
Pro Farmer/Doane survey |
12.350 |
|
USDA final 2021 |
11.420 |
|
|
|
|
Durum wheat – million acres |
|
|
Average est. |
1.727 |
|
Range |
1.500-1.835 |
|
Pro Farmer/Doane survey |
1.750 |
|
USDA final 2021 |
1.635 |
|
|
|
|
Cotton – million acres |
|
|
Average est. |
12.007 |
|
Range |
11.700-12.200 |
|
Pro Farmer/Doane survey |
12.000 |
|
USDA final 2021 |
12.093 |
|
|
|
Huge range of estimates for March 1 grain stocks... Plantings intentions are getting much of the attention ahead of Thursday’s USDA reports. But it could be March 1 stocks that end up moving markets. The corn market has a history of major misses on quarterly stocks and the pre-report range of estimates is wide for corn, soybeans and wheat.
|
Expectations for |
|
|
Corn – billion bu. |
|
|
Average est. for March 1, 2022 |
7.877 |
|
Range |
7.630-8.087 |
|
USDA Dec. 1, 2021 |
11.647 |
|
USDA March 1, 2021 |
7.696 |
|
|
|
|
Soybeans – billion bu. |
|
|
Average est. for March 1, 2022 |
1.902 |
|
Range |
1.562-1.965 |
|
USDA Dec. 1, 2021 |
3.149 |
|
USDA March 1, 2021 |
1.562 |
|
|
|
|
Wheat – billion bu. |
|
|
Average est. for March 1, 2022 |
1.045 |
|
Range |
0.998-1.302 |
|
USDA Dec. 1, 2021 |
1.390 |
|
USDA March 1, 2021 |
1.311 |
