Market Snapshot | March 17, 2022

Corn futures are 15 to 23 cents higher in old-crop contracts at midmorning.

• Nearby corn futures surged from yesterday’s drop to two-week lows behind signs the Russia/Ukraine war has fueled increased export business for the U.S.
• USDA reported a daily corn sale of 136,000 MT for delivery to “unknown destinations” during the 2021-22 marketing year.
• Also, USDA reported net weekly U.S. corn sales of 1.836 MMT for 2021-22, down 14% from the previous week but up 64% from the average for the previous four weeks. For 2022-23, net sales totaled 204,000 MT. Traders expected net U.S. corn sales of 700,000 to 1.4 million MT for 2021-22 and zero to 200,000 MT for 2022-23. Export commitments are 14% behind year-ago, compared to 16% behind last week.
• May corn rose as high as $7.56 1/2, after falling yesterday to $7.26 3/4, the lowest intraday price since $7.22 on March 3. Continued gains would have bulls targeting this week’s high at $7.67 1/2.

Nearby soybeans are 15 to 18 cents higher and nearby soyoil is up more than 100 points while soymeal is mixed.

• Nearby soybeans gained for the first time in five days as a $7-plus rally in crude oil futures and Argentina’s expected plan to raise taxes on soybean oil and meal exports overshadowed uninspiring export numbers.
• Argentina is weighing raising taxes on soybean oil and meal exports as part of a plan to tamp down sky-high inflation, a government source told Reuters. A hike to soy product export taxes was widely speculated immediately after the country shut off export registrations for soymeal and soyoil Sunday.
• Net weekly U.S. soybean sales totaled 1.253 MMT for 2021-22, down 43% from the previous week and down 11% from the prior four-week average. Top buyers included China, at 395,500 MT, including 66,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 66,700 MT.
• For 2022-23, net sales totaled 477,000 MT, with lead buyers including China (406,000 MT) and unknown destinations (71,000 MT). Expectations for 2021-22 ranged from 900,000 MT to 1.8 MMT and expectations for 2022-23 ranged from 500,000 MT to 1.2 MMT.
• May soybean futures are trading between yesterday’s high and low of $16.81 1/4 and $16.45 1/4, respectively.

Wheat futures are sharply higher, led by SRW and HRS contracts, after rebounding from overnight declines.

• Wheat futures are up in a short-covering rebound following yesterday’s limit-down losses. While optimism for potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine has grown, the war continues to limit selling interest.
• Net U.S. weekly wheat sales totaled 145,900 MT for 2021-22, down 53% from the previous week. For 2022-23, net sales totaled 325,600 MT. Traders expected net sales of 250,000 to 600,000 MT for 2021-22 and sales of zero to 100,000 MT for 2022-23.
• Strategie Grains cut its forecast for 2021-22 wheat exports out of Ukraine by almost 6 MMT and from Russia by 5 MMT due to the war. To partially offset those losses, the consultancy raised its estimate for wheat shipments from the 27-member European Union this season by 2 MMT to 32.5 MMT.
• Ukraine winter grain crop are in “good” condition throughout the country, Deputy Agriculture Minister Taras Dzoba said. “And, despite the difficulties in which field work has to be carried out, Ukraine will have bread,” he said, adding that export potential is “significantly undermined” by war.
• May SRW wheat rebounded as high as $11.01 3/4 after dropping to $10.31 3/4 overnight. Daily trading limits expanded to $1.30 for SRW and HRW wheat contracts today.

Live cattle futures are higher at midmorning while feeders are lower.  

• Live cattle futures rebounded from yesterday’s late slide amid beliefs cash prices will firm this week.
• Feeder cattle are under pressure from a surge in corn futures.
• Cash cattle trade so far this week has been light and at prices about steady with last week’s live steer average of $138.30, but the market has yet to establish a true test.
• Continued strength in wholesale beef continues to underpin futures. Choice beef cutout values rose 18 cents to $258.08, the highest daily average in nearly three weeks. Movement totaled 123 loads.
• USDA reported net weekly U.S. beef sales of 19,700 MT for 2022, down 28% from the previous week and down 11% from the prior four-week average. China was the lead buyer, at 6,600 MT, followed by Japan, at 5,200 MT.

Lean hog futures are lower and near lows for the week.

• Hogs futures extended yesterday’s late downturn.
• The CME lean hog index slipped 8 cents to $100.41 but is still near a six-month high posted late last week.
• Pork cutouts continued recent strength, rising 54 cents to $105.02. Movement slowed to 294 loads, but retailers still appear to be ready buyers as they prepare for end-of-Lent features and the start of the grilling season.
• Net weekly U.S. pork sales of 38,300 MT for 2022 were up 51% from the previous week and up 36% from the prior four-week average, with Mexico the lead buyer at 21,700 MT.