Winter wheat conditions show significant deterioration as USDA resumes crop ratings

Drought in the Plains shows impact in initial survey results

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Wheat
(CHS Hedging)

With spring planting now under way, USDA has resumed their regular weekly publishing of the Crop Progress and Condition Reports. The reports are a measure of the pace of various fieldwork and plant development stages throughout the season, with ratings of crop and livestock conditions also included.

The inaugural report of the 2026 season showed corn planting at 3% complete, with spring wheat at 2% planted and cotton at 5%, coming in line with analysts polled by Reuters. Compared to last year’s pace, corn and cotton are 1% ahead, and spring wheat is 1% behind.

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(USDA/Pro Farmer)

Analysts estimated that winter wheat conditions would come in at 42% good to excellent, with USDA reporting an actual value of 35% for the category. This is down 13% from year-ago levels due to the ongoing drought impacting the Plains, and the lowest initial spring rating of the crop since 2022. Colorado and Montana noted the sharpest declines in ratings, but was partially offset by increases in Idaho and Washington.

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(USDA/Pro Farmer)

National conditions for corn, soybeans and other crops will not be provided until the crop has exceeded the 50% threshold of the emergence stage, typically mid-May for corn and early June for soybeans.

Traders closely watch the reports each Monday afternoon from April through November, as the regular schedule and high volume of releases compared to other data sources make the report valuable for detecting potential shifts in production. Changes in condition ratings among crops also tend to move in the same direction as changes in USDA’s monthly yield forecasts during the growing season, although there is no definitive one-to-one correlation in ratings and yield projections.

While most USDA reports rely on surveying farmers or agribusinesses, respondents to the Crop Progress survey are individuals “whose occupations provide them opportunities to make visual observations and frequently bring them in contact with farmers in their counties” per USDA-NASS methodology. A majority of those are county-level extension staff or other USDA employees not directly affiliated with NASS, such as NRCS or FSA staff residing and working across the country. The majority of responses are received Monday morning, just a few hours before the report is released, with respondents asked to judge the progress and condition of crops in their county according to a set standard of definitions. A full list of the current and historical reports are available here, with further data available in the QuickStats database.