USDA issued their final report on corn conditions on October 26, two weeks after its final look at soybean conditions. The closing tally showed the corn crop at 56% good to excellent, with 57% of soybeans in those categories. We performed regression analysis comparing those good to excellent conditions with final yields as a percentage of the prior record yield from 2000 to 2025. Comparing the yield as a percentage of previous records allows us to account for the subjective change in the definition of “good” crops over time as yield potentials have soared.
While conditions data is not an exact indicator of final yields, it can serve as a measuring stick regarding how the agency feels about the quality of the crop before the final January report. Ultimately, the data received from the objective yield process and the larger survey-based December Agricultural Survey will inform the agency’s final yield estimates. Still, a fairly strong correlation also exists between the two variables, with the regression equation in corn scoring an R² of 0.568 and soybeans 0.69, meaning that even if the data is not officially weighed, it can serve to give us a ballpark idea of where yields might end up.
The regression equation suggests that, on average, corn yields would come in at 95.3% of the previous record, or 177.8 bushels per acre, lower than the 181.2 currently forecast. USDA’s current forecast would come in at 97.2% of the 2025 record high of 186.5. Soybean yields according to the regression analysis would be 97% of the previous record, or 51.4 bushels, compared to USDA’s current forecast of 53.1 bushels. That forecast would be a record — but just barely, coming in at 100.1% percent of last year’s record setting 53.0 bushels.
Both corn and soybeans have seen new record yields set with good to excellent ratings as low as 53%, meaning that USDA is not deviating too far from the historical relationship between yields and conditions with their current forecasts even if they seem like lofty forecasts to achieve at this time.