The September USDA Crop Production report on Friday delivered an unexpected 0.1 bu. per acre increase to the average soybean yield (to 52.8 bu. per acre), defying analysts’ expectations for a yield cut but inching closer to our Pro Farmer estimate of 53.3 bu. per acre. Lower pod counts were the norm during Crop Tour, but USDA data challenged our findings.
Looking at the top seven soybean producing states (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska and Ohio), USDA actually pegged pod counts higher than 2025, though the results state-to-state were a bit of a mixed bag. USDA found higher pod counts versus a year ago in Iowa, Minnesota, and Ohio, with lower counts in Illinois, Indiana, Missouri and Nebraska. Still, counts in states that saw year-over-year declines still found enough of a “yield factory” to push yields near record levels. Crop Tour found higher pods in just one state — Minnesota.
While Crop Tour found lower pod counts across most states, we wrote in our weekly commentary that week that “soybeans were a bright spot across the Midwest.” We went on to say “soybeans can yield records without record pod counts and scouts remarked across the I-states how much potential the soybean crop has, which could help lift the national average yield to record heights.” Our view hasn’t changed. Soybeans handled August weather well and are well set up to push yields to a record. What does USDA’s data say about that assumption?
We remarked that USDA’s data indicated record pods in the top seven states in September (2,121 pods per 18 square ft., above the prior record of 2,077 pods in 2025). September 2026 counts are just below the 2025 final record, but pod counts have increased all but one year from September to the final estimate since 2004 (counts were unchanged in 2011), so a record come January’s final data is likely.
Given pod counts are a record, that leaves one culprit for why yields could be lower — pod weight. Similar to corn, USDA is penciling in lower weights versus a year ago, but unlike corn, pod weights were not a record last year. In fact, they were not close. Average pod weights in the top seven production states peaked at .365 grams per pod in 2022 and have trended lower each year since. The soybean crop has faced challenging finishes each of those years as the crop has faced either substantial drought or a lack of rain in the months preceding harvest. USDA estimates pod weights are down 0.8% from 2025.
Pod weights would not need to rise much to make a difference. If weights were to come in steady with a year ago, which saw the worst pod weights since 2012, the average national yield would be pushed to a record 53.5 bu. per acre. As more soybeans are harvested over the coming weeks, more samples will be sent and weighed, providing key data to determine exactly where final pod weights will end up.
Still, there is potential for a negative impact to weights as the historical tendency has been for pod weights to fall from September to January as final weights have come in below September for 14 consecutive years.
If one were to expect a drop in pod weights from September to final in line with the ten-year average and an increase in pod counts in line with the ten-year average, one would find the figure matches last year’s yield exactly for the seven-top producing states. We feel as though the biggest potential lies in a smaller-than-normal drop, or even an increase, in pod weights. Given the crops health going into the finish line this year, there is potential for a record bean yield still.