Corn and soybean basis levels have generally strengthened across the Eastern Corn Belt since mid-June, but are unlikely to defy seasonal weakness as summer continues, according to an analysis published this week by Josh Strine of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.
“As we move through the second half of summer, seasonal trends suggest the strongest basis is behind us,” Strine wrote. “Historical trends for both corn and soybeans indicate a weekly decline in basis across the region over the next month.”
Over the past four weeks, corn basis relative to September futures rose in 39 of 41 tracked districts, Strine said. Illinois saw broad gains of at least $0.07/bu — reaching a $0.20/bu increase in the southwest part of the state — while West Central Michigan posted the largest gain at $0.24/bu. Ohio and Indiana maintain the region’s highest basis levels, with every Ohio district at or above September futures (Central Ohio at +$0.20/bu). Conversely, Iowa was the weakest, ranging from -$0.24/bu to -$0.36/bu.
Soybean basis trends relative to August futures were more varied. Gains exceeded $0.20/bu in four districts across East Central Iowa, West and Southwest Illinois, and Southwest Michigan. The strongest soybean basis is concentrated along the Ohio River, where river terminals reached $0.22/bu. In contrast, Indiana and Ohio recorded slight month-over-month declines in certain districts, with Ohio being the only state where average processor basis weakened over the past four weeks.
Strine noted that decreases are already evident in corn basis across several districts over the past week. In the three southern districts of Indiana, the drops were $0.04/bu, $0.10/bu, and $0.22/bu.