U.S. pork producers continued herd contraction - USDA

U.S. pork producers continued herd contraction during the spring, according to USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report today.

Virtually every category for the population, sow herd, market hogs, sows farrowing and intentions and the pig crop came in at around 99% of year-earlier levels. The only exception was the annual change in the spring 2022 number of pigs saved per litter, at 100% of the March-May quarter of 2021.

The bulk of those numbers were close to industry forecasts, so the report is unlikely to impact hog futures Thursday. August lean hog futures fell 25 cents Wednesday to $103.575. 

All hogs and pigs as of June 1 totaled 72.524 million head, down 0.9% from the same date in 2021, USDA estimated. Analysts on average expected a decline of about 0.7%. Animals kept for breeding totaled 6.168 million head, down 0.8% from a year earlier and smaller than the expected drop of 1.1%. Market hogs totaled 66.356 million head, down 0.9% from year-earlier.

The breakdown of hog numbers in the various weight categories had the percentages round to 99% of last year, although the number of pigs in the lightweight category (50 pounds or less) reached 98.7%, the two midweight categories reached 99.4% and the heavyweight category was stated at 99.2% of last year. Essentially these numbers imply hog slaughter will seldom fluctuate from levels 1% below year-ago levels over the next six months.

Producer farrowing intentions for June-August and September-November came in at 99.0% and 98.6%, respectively. With litter sizes no longer trending upward, and feed costs seeming likely to remain greatly elevated, there is little reason to think the U.S. hog industry and the supply of hogs and pork will increase during the first half of 2023.

The March 1 U.S. hog population was revised upward by 410,000 head (0.6%) to 72.619 million head, which was also the size of the upward revision to the market hog figure, now at 66.521 million. Those changes came in the midweight categories that went to slaughter in during the spring.

The December 1 population figure was revised 300,000 head (0.4%) higher to 74.446 million. That also reflected an increase in the market hog category, with the bulk of the increase concentrated in the two lightest-weight categories.

These gains stemmed from an upward revision of 37,000 head to the September-November sow farrowing estimate, now at 3.049 million head, which in turn translated into a 411,000-head boost to the fall 2021 pig crop, now at 34.123 million head. These changes don’t mean a great deal, since the increased numbers have already worked their way through the marketing chain.