Market reaction
Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading 1 to 3 cents lower, soybeans were 2 to 6 cents higher, wheat futures were 4 to 6 cents lower and cotton was mostly 120 to 140 points higher. As of 11:10 a.m. CT, corn is trading 3 to 4 cents lower, soybeans are 1 to 3 cents higher, wheat futures are 9 to 12 cents lower and cotton futures are mostly 125 to 140 points higher.
U.S. carryover
Corn: 2.127 billion bu. for 2025-26, unchanged from March— compares with 1.551 billion bu. in 2024-25
Beans: 350 million bu. for 2025-26, unchanged from March— compares with 325 million bu. in 2024-25
Wheat: 938 million bu. for 2025-26, up from 931 million bu. in March— compares with 855 million bu. in 2024-25
Cotton: 4.4 million bales for 2025-26, unchanged from March— compares with 4.00 million bales in 2024-25
USDA’s 2025/26 corn outlook is unchanged relative to last month. The season-average corn price received by producers was raised to $4.15 per bushel from $4.10. USDA’s 2025/26 soybean supply and use projections saw increased crush, reduced exports and unchanged ending stocks. Crush is raised 35 million bushels, driven by higher soybean meal domestic use. Soybean exports are reduced by 35 million bushels. The average farm price was lifted to $10.30 a bushel from $10.20 in March.
Wheat imports were raised by 5 million bushels, seed use was reduced by 1 million bushels. The season-average farm price is up $0.05 per bushel to $5.00 on NASS prices reported to date and price expectations for the remainder of the marketing year. USDA made no changes to the 2025/26 cotton balance sheet, while lifting the average farm price to 61.0 cents from 60.0 cents.
Global carryover
Corn: 294.81 MMT for 2025-26, up from 292.75 MMT in March but still below 296.28 MMT in 2024-25.
Beans: 124.79 MMT for 2025-26, down from 125.31 MMT in March— compares with 124.81 MMT in 2024-25
Wheat: 283.12 MMT for 2025-26, up from 276.96 MMT in March— compares with 259.09 MMT in 2024-25
Cotton: 77.04 million bales for 2025-26, up from 76.39 million bales in March — compares with 74.07 million bales in 2024-25
Global production highlights
Argentina beans: 48.0 MMT for 2025-26, unchanged from March — compares with 51.11 MMT in 2024-25
Brazil beans: 180.0 MMT for 2025-26, unchanged from March— compares with 172.50 MMT in 2024-25
Argentina wheat: 27.92 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 27.8 MMT in March — compares with 18.51 MMT in 2024-25
Australia wheat: 36.0 MMT for 2025-26, unchanged from March— compares with 34.11 MMT in 2024-25
China wheat: 140.07 MMT for 2025-26, unchanged from March — compares with 140.10 MMT in 2024-25
Canada wheat: 39.96 MMT for 2025-26, unchanged from March — compares with 35.94 MMT in 2024-25
EU wheat: 145.11 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 144.0 MMT in March — compares with 121.06 MMT in 2024-25
Russia wheat: 90.30 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 89.50 in March — compares with 81.60 MMT in 2024-25
Ukraine wheat: 24.0 MMT for 2025-26, unchanged from March — compares with 23.40 MMT in 2024-25
China corn: 301.24 MMT for 2025-26, unchanged from March — compares with 294.92 MMT in 2024-25
Argentina corn: 52.0 MMT for 2025-26, unchanged from March — compares with 50.0 MMT in 2024-25
Brazil corn: 132.0 MMT for 2025-26, unchanged from March — compares with 136.0 MMT in 2024-25
Ukraine corn: 30.70 MMT for 2025-26, unchanged from March — compares with 26.8 MMT in 2024-25
South Africa corn: 17.3 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 16.5 MMT in March — compares with 17.27 MMT in 2024-25
China cotton: 35.8 mil. bales for 2025-26, compares with 35.5 mil. bales in March— compares with 32.0 million bales in 2024-25