Market reaction
Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading half a cent lower to unchanged, soybeans were 7 to 9 cents higher, wheat futures were 1 to 3 cents lower and cotton was mostly 30 to 50 points higher.
As of 11:20 a.m. CT, corn is trading a penny higher, soybeans are 6 to 8 cents higher, wheat futures are 1 to 3 cents lower and cotton futures are mostly 5 to 20 points higher.
U.S. carryover
Corn: 2.127 billion bu. for 2025-26, down 100 million bu. from 2.227 billion bu. in January— compares with 1.551 billion bu. in 2024-25
Beans: 350 million bu. for 2025-26, unchanged from 350 million bu. in January— compares with 325 million bu. in 2024-25
Wheat: 931 million bu. for 2025-26, up from 926 million bu. in January— compares with 855 million bu. in 2024-25
Cotton: 4.4 million bales for 2025-26, up from 4.2 million bales in January— compares with 4.00 million bales in 2024-25
USDA lowered its corn ending stocks forecast 100 million bushels to 2.127 billion bushels. The average analyst expectation was no change in ending stocks. Strong export performance so far this marketing year resulted in the agency increasing the export forecast to 3.3 billion bushels from 3.2 billion last month. USDA left their forecast for the 2025-2026 average cash price unchanged from last month to $4.10, still down 14 cents from last year.
USDA kept its soybean carryover projection steady from last month at 350 million bushels. Analysts expected a 3-million-bu. cut. USDA made no changes to either the supply or demand side of the 2025-26 balance sheet. USDA also left the average cash price for soybeans unchanged for 2025-2026 at $10.20, up 20 cents compared to last year.
USDA increased its wheat ending stocks forecast 5 million bu. from last month. Analysts expected a 8-million-bu. decrease on average. USDA made no changes to the supply side of the balance sheet. On the demand side, the only change was a 5-million-bu. decrease to food use, which is now projected at 967 million bushels. USDA kept its 2025-26 average cash price projection at $4.90, which would be down 62 cents from last year.
USDA raised its cotton carryover forecast 200,000 bales to 4.4 million bales. Analysts expected a 10,000-bale increase on average. USDA lowered cotton exports forecast 200,000 bales to 12 million bales due to exports running behind compared to previous years. USDA lowered its 2025-26 average cash price projection by 1 cent to 60.0 cents, which would be down 3 cents from last year.
Global carryover
Corn: 288.98 MMT for 2025-26, down from 290.91 MMT in January and 294.35 MMT in 2024-25.
Beans: 125.51 MMT for 2025-26, up from 124.41 MMT in January— compares with 123.66 MMT in 2024-25
Wheat: 277.51 MMT for 2025-26, down from 278.25 MMT in January— compares with 259.77 MMT in 2024-25
Cotton: 75.11 million bales for 2025-26, up from 74.48 million bales in January — compares with 73.76 million bales in 2024-25
Global production highlights
Argentina beans: 48.50 MMT for 2025-26, unchanged from January — compares with 51.11 MMT in 2024-25
Brazil beans: 180.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 178.0 MMT in January— compares with 171.50 MMT in 2024-25
Argentina wheat: 27.80 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 27.50 MMT in January — compares with 18.51 MMT in 2024-25
Australia wheat: 37.0 MMT for 2025-26, unchanged from January— compares with 34.11 MMT in 2024-25
China wheat: 140.07 MMT for 2025-26, unchanged from January — compares with 140.10 MMT in 2024-25
Canada wheat: 39.96 MMT for 2025-26, unchanged from January — compares with 35.94 MMT in 2024-25
EU wheat: 144 MMT for 2025-26, unchanged from January — compares with 122.15 MMT in 2024-25
Russia wheat: 89.50 MMT for 2025-26, unchanged from January — compares with 81.60 MMT in 2024-25
Ukraine wheat: 23.0 MMT for 2025-26, unchanged from January — compares with 23.40 MMT in 2024-25
China corn: 301.24 MMT for 2025-26, unchanged from January — compares with 294.92 MMT in 2024-25
Argentina corn: 53.0 MMT for 2025-26, unchanged from January — compares with 50.0 MMT in 2024-25
Brazil corn: 131.0 MMT for 2025-26, unchanged from January — compares with 136.0 MMT in 2024-25
Ukraine corn: 29.0 MMT for 2025-26, unchanged from January — compares with 26.8 MMT in 2024-25
South Africa corn: 16.5 MMT for 2025-26, unchanged from January — compares with 17.06 MMT in 2024-25
China cotton: 35.0 mil. bales for 2025-26, compares with 34.5 mil. bales in January— compares with 32.0 million bales in 2024-25