Market Reaction
Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading 7 to 8 cents higher, soybeans were around 7 to 9 cents higher, wheat futures were up 20 to 25 cents and cotton was around 50 points higher.
As of 11:30 a.m. CT, corn is trading around 12 cents higher, soybeans are around 5 cents higher, wheat is around 20 cents higher and cotton is around 60 points lower.
U.S. crop production
Corn: 16.012 billion bu.; trade expected 15.966 billion bu.— compares to 16.0 billion bu. projected in July; 17.02 billion bu. in 2025.
Beans: 4.519 billion bu.; trade expected 4.478 billion bu.— compares to 4.475 billion bu. projected in July; 4.261 billion bu. in 2025.
Cotton: 13.608 million bales; trade expected 13.54 million bales— compares to 13.7 million bales projected in July; 13.90 million bales in 2025.
All wheat: 1.530 billion bu.; trade expected 1.526 billion bu.— compares with 1.536 billion bu. in July; 1.984 billion bu. in 2025.
All winter wheat: 990 million bu.; trade expected 987 million bu.— compares with 990 million bu. in July; 1.401 billion bu. in 2025.
HRW: 462 million bu.; trade expected 468 million bu.— compares with 471 million bu. in July; 804 million bu. in 2025.
SRW: 287 million bu.; trade expected 286 million bu.— compares with 287 million bu. in July; 352 million bu. in 2025.
White winter: 240 million bu.; trade expected 232 million bu.— compares with 232 million bu. in July; 243 million bu. in 2025.
Other spring wheat: 474 million bu.; trade expected 469 million bu.— compares with 475 million bu. in July; 497 million bu. in 2025.
Durum wheat: 66.4 million bu.; trade expected 70 million bu.— compares with 71 million bu. in July; 86 million bu. in 2025.
USDA’s first production estimate increased 12 million bu. from July and was 46 million bu. bigger than analysts expected. Yield is forecast at a record high 180.7 bushels per acre, down 5.8 bushels from last year’s record-setting 186.5 bushels and 2.3 bushels below trend. Using FSA certified acres, NASS forecast planted acres at 96.73.3 million acres, up 1.5 percent from the previous estimate but still down 2.1 percent from the previous year. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 88.6 million acres, up 1.4 percent from the previous forecast but down 2.9 percent from the previous year.
Across the Corn belt, yields are estimated at 212 bu. per acre in Illinois, 206 bu. in Indiana, 216 bu. in Iowa, 126 bu. in Kansas, 174 bu. in Michigan, 197 bu. in Minnesota, 180 bu. in Missouri, 183 bu. in Nebraska, 142 bu. in North Dakota, 195 bu. in Ohio, 151 bu. in South Dakota and 184 bu. in Wisconsin.
USDA’s first soybean estimate increased 44 million bu. from July and was 41 million bu. higher than analysts expected. Yields are expected to average 52.7 bushels per acre, down 0.3 bushels from 2025. Area harvested for beans in the United States is forecast at 85.78 million acres, up 1.7 percent from the previous forecast and up 6.2 percent from 2025.
USDA estimated soybean yields at 67 bu. per acre in Illinois, 62 bu. in Indiana, 62 bu. in Iowa, 38 bu. in Kansas, 50 bu. in Michigan, 48 bu. in Minnesota, 50 bu. in Missouri, 57 bu. in Nebraska, 34 bu. in North Dakota, 58 bu. in Ohio, 41 bu. in South Dakota and 55 bu. in Wisconsin.
USDA lowered its all wheat production forecast 5 million bu. from July. Winter wheat production was down less than a million bushels, with HRW declining 9 million bu., SRW unchanged and white winter up roughly 8 million bu. USDA cut the other spring wheat estimate 1 million bu. from July and cut expected durum production 4 million bu. USDA lowered their wheat yield 0.1 bu. per acre to 47.8 bu. and raised harvested acres by 40,000 at 32.1 million.
USDA slashed their cotton production estimate 90,000 bales from the July projection to 13.61 million bales. Traders expected a larger production cut to 13.54 million bales. USDA estimates the yield at 798 lbs. per acre, down from 872 lbs. last month. Harvested acres were increased 650,000 acres, largely due to increased plantings as found in FSA certified acres, as plantings are now estimated at 10.469 million acres.
U.S. carryover
Corn: 1.945 billion bu. for 2025-26, down from 2.02 billion bu. in July— 1.653 billion bu. for 2026-27, up from 1.790 billion bu. in July
Beans: 325 million bu. for 2025-26, down from 330 million bu. in July— 320 million bu. for 2026-27, up from 310 million bu. in July
Wheat: 717 million bu. for 2026-27, down from 722 million bu. in July
Cotton: 4.2 million bales for 2025-26, unchanged from 4.2 million bales in July— 4.0 million bales for 2026-27, down from 4.1 million bales in July
USDA cut 75 million bushels from the 2025-26 corn carryover estimate from last month USDA made no change on the supply side of the old-crop balance sheet. Total old-crop demand is estimated at 16.655 billion bu., up 75 million bu. from last month, reflecting an increase in exports. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash price for 2025-26 at $4.15, unchanged from last month.
USDA cut new-crop carryover by 137 million bu. from last month. The decline in beginning stocks was only partly offset by a 13 million bushel rise in production. Total supplies compared to last month are down 62 million bushels. USDA increased total new-crop demand 75 million bu. from last month. Feed & residual use is unchanged at 6.1 billion bu., FSI is unchanged at 6.955 billion bu. (corn-for-ethanol use is 5.6 billion bu., unchanged. from July) and exports are estimated at 3.275 billion bu., up 75 million bu. from last month. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2026-27 at $4.50, up a dime from July.
USDA cut 5 million bu. from the 2025-26 soybean carryover estimate from last month. USDA made no change on the old-crop supplies. USDA increased estimated old-crop bean crush 5 million bu. (to 2.655 billion) and left estimated old-crop bean exports unchanged at 1.52 billion. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash soybean price at $10.40, unchanged with last month.
USDA raised the 2025-26 soybean carryover estimate 10 million bushels from last month. Total new-crop supplies were raised 39 million bu. from last month with beginning stocks down 5 million bu. and the crop estimate up 44 million bu. from July. (USDA trimmed the national average bean yield, but raised estimated harvested acres from last month.) On the demand side, USDA raised total use 29 million bu. from last month with crush up 30 million bushels at 2.78 billion bu., exports steady at 1.66 billion and residual use down 1 million bu. (to 37 million). USDA puts the national average on-farm cash bean price at $11.40, steady with July.
USDA puts the 2026-27 wheat carryover at 717 million bu., down 5 million bu. from last month. Total supplies are down 5 million bu. on a slight adjustment to the all-wheat crop estimate from last month. Domestic demand (1.099 billion bushels) and exports (775 million bushels) were left unchanged. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price at $6.20, up 20 cents from last month.
USDA left 2025-26 cotton carryover unchanged. Supply and demand were left unchanged, with the only change to old-crop forecasts from last month being a 1-cent reduction in the average farm price to 61.5 cents per pound.
USDA cut 100,000 bales from the 2026-27 cotton carryover from last month. Total supplies are down 100,000 bales from last month on a cut to the production estimate. Demand was left unchanged as the new-crop year remains in its early stages. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2026-27 at 75 cents, up 2 cents from last month.
Global carryover
Corn: 298.83 MMT for 2025-26, up from 298.67 MMT in July— 274.66 MMT for 2026-27, down from 275.26 MMT in July
Beans: 125.12 MMT for 2025-26, down from 125.33 MMT in July— 124.21 MMT for 2026-27, up from 124.17 MMT in July
Wheat: 280.22 MMT for 2025-26, up from 279.04 MMT in July— 273.25 MMT for 2026-27, up from 272.84 MMT in July
Cotton: 74.80 million bales for 2025-26, down from 75.72 million bales in July— 69.69 million bales for 2026-27, down from 71.22 million bales in July
Global production highlights
Argentina beans: 49.5 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 50.0 MMT in July— 50.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 50.0 MMT in July
Brazil beans: 180.5 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 180.0 MMT in July— 186.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 186.0 MMT in July
Argentina wheat: 27.89 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 27.92 MMT in July— 21.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 21.0 MMT in July
Australia wheat: 35.99 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 35.99 MMT in July— 28.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 28.0 MMT in July
China wheat: 140.07 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 140.1 MMT in July— 141.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 141.0 MMT in July
Canada wheat: 39.96 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 39.96 MMT in July— 35.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 34.0 MMT in July
EU wheat: 145.11 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 145.11 MMT in July— 134.20 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 136.0 MMT in July
Russia wheat: 90.3 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 90.3 MMT in July— 88.5 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 88.5 MMT in July
Ukraine wheat: 24.1 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 24.1 MMT in July— 25.4 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 24.0 MMT in July
China corn: 301.24 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 301.24 MMT in July— 307.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 307.0 MMT in July
Argentina corn: 63.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 63.0 MMT in July— 55.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 55.0 MMT in July
Brazil corn: 140.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 138.0 MMT in July— 139.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 139.0 MMT in July
Ukraine corn: 30.9 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 30.9 MMT in July— 31.8 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 30.0 MMT in July
South Africa corn: 18.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 18.0 MMT in July— 16.5 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 16.5 MMT in July
China cotton: 35.8 mil. bales for 2025-26, compares with 35.8 mil. bales in July— 33.50 mil. bales for 2026-27, compares with 33.5 mil. bales in July