Market reaction
Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading near around 7 cents lower, soybeans were around a quarter lower, wheat futures were down 15 to 18 cents and cotton was around 65 points lower.
As of 11:30 a.m. CT, corn is trading 3 to 4 cents lower, soybeans are around 25 cents lower, wheat is 18 to 20 cents lower and cotton is around 130 points lower.
U.S. crop production
Corn: 15.800 billion bu.; trade expected 15.785 billion bu.— compares to 16.012 billion bu. projected in August; 17.02 billion bu. in 2025.
Beans: 4.535 billion bu.; trade expected 4.501 billion bu.— compares to 4.519 billion bu. projected in August; 4.261 billion bu. in 2025.
Cotton: 13.201 million bales; trade expected 13.19 million bales— compares to 13.608 million bales projected in August; 13.90 million bales in 2025.
USDA cut its production estimate 213 million bu. from last month. It decreased yield 2.2 bu. to 178.5 bu. per acre. Harvested acres were cut to 88.506 million acres, down 86,000 acres from August despite a 47,000 acre increase to planted acres (to 96.777 million). Yields were decreased in Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota and Wisconsin. Yields were increased in Iowa and Missouri.
Across the Corn belt, yields are estimated at 209 bu. per acre in Illinois, 200 bu. in Indiana, 219 bu. in Iowa, 121 bu. in Kansas, 173 bu. in Michigan, 195 bu. in Minnesota, 181 bu. in Missouri, 177 bu. in Nebraska, 130 bu. in North Dakota, 194 bu. in Ohio, 145 bu. in South Dakota and 180 bu. in Wisconsin.
USDA objective yield data indicated ear counts were down modestly from last September despite a sharp drop in yield, implying ear weights will be down sharply. Ear counts were down in Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska and Ohio. Ear counts were up in Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota and Wisconsin.
USDA increased its soybean production estimate 16.0 million bu. from last month. USDA increased yield 0.1 bu. to 52.8 bu. per acre. USDA increased harvested acres 0.100 million acres to 85.881 million acres amid a 0.100 million acre increase to planted acres (to 86.865 million acres). USDA’s objective yield data for the combined 11 major soybean-producing states (Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, and South Dakota) indicated a lower pod count than last year (1,901 pods per 18 square feet versus 1,923 last year).
Compared to last month, USDA increased yields in Indiana (to 63 bu. per acre), Iowa (to 64 bu. per acre), Minnesota (to 49 bu. per acre), Nebraska (to 60 bu. per acre), Ohio (to 59 bu. per acre) and South Dakota (to 41 bu. per acre). USDA decreased yields in Illinois (to 66 bu. per acre), Kansas (35 bu. per acre) and North Dakota (to 30 bu. per acre). Yields were steady in Arkansas (57 bu. per acre), Missouri (50 bu. per acre) and Wisconsin (55 bu. per acre).
USDA cut cotton production by 407,000 bales to 13.201 million bales, just above the average analyst estimate of 13.19 million. A majority of the change was driven by yield adjustment as harvested acres across the U.S. were down by 23,000 to 8.164 million. Texas drove the largest drop in production, down 294,000 bales from last month. Production changes were mixed across the rest of the cotton belt, with increases in Alabama, (up 40,000 bales) Louisiana, (up 20,000 bales) and South Carolina (up 10,000 bales), but decreases in Arkansas, (down 50,000 bales) Mississippi (down 50,000 bales) and Tennessee (down 30,000 bales), and Georgia was left unchanged.
U.S. carryover
Corn: 1.922 billion bu. for 2025-26, down from 1.945 billion bu. in August— 1.567 billion bu. for 2026-27, down from 1.653 billion bu. in August
Beans: 325 million bu. for 2025-26, unchanged from 325 million bu. in August— 310 million bu. for 2026-27, down from 320 million bu. in August
Wheat: 717 million bu. for 2026-27, unchanged from 717 million bu. in August
Cotton: 4.15 million bales for 2025-26, down from 4.2 million bales in August— 3.6 million bales for 2026-27, down from 4.0 million bales in August
USDA decreased old-crop corn carryover 23 million bu. from last month. USDA cut total supplies 2 million bu. with a 5-million-bu. cut to estimated imports (to 28 million bushels). USDA left feed & residual use unchanged from last month at 6.35 billion bu., left corn food, seed & industrial use unchanged. (at 6.905 billion bu.) and increased estimated old-crop corn exports 25 million bu., to 3.425 billion bushels. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2025-26 at $4.15, unchanged from last month.
On new-crop corn, USDA cut estimated carryover 86 million bu. from last month but that is 39 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. Total supplies were decreased 213 million bu. from last month due to another big cut in corn yield, while harvested acreage was cut a modest 100,000 acres. Total new-crop demand is down 150 million bu. from last month, with all of that change due to a 150 million bu. cut to Feed & Residual use (to 5.950 billion bushels). New-crop corn export use (3.275 billion bu.) and FSI (including corn-for-ethanol; 6.955 billion bu.) were unchanged from last month. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2026-27 at $4.80, up 30¢ from a month ago.
USDA held old-crop soybean carryover unchanged from last month. USDA left total supplies unchanged alongside the demand side of the balance sheet. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash soybean price for 2025-26 at $10.50, up a dime from last month.
On new-crop beans, USDA cut carryover 10 million bu. from last month but that was still 12 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. Total supplies are up 16 million bu. from last month due to a slight increase in the size of the 2026 bean crop. On the demand side, USDA increased estimated exports 25 million bu. from last month (to 1.685 billion bu.) but left estimated crush unchanged (at 2.780 billion bu.). Residual use also adjusted up 1 million bu. to 38 million. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash bean price for 2026-27 at $12.00, up 60¢ from last month.
On wheat, USDA left the estimated 2026-27 carryover unchanged at 717 million bushels. USDA made no changes on the supply or demand side of the 2026-27 balance sheet. USDA did raise the forecasted average farm price by 20 cents a bushel from last month to $6.40 per bushel. An unchanged wheat balance sheet in the September WASDE is not unusual, as USDA will release the annual Small Grains Summary at the end of this month with more firm data to estimate from.
On old-crop cotton, the lone change to the supply-side was a cut to imports by 10,000 bales to 0. On the demand-side, USDA cut domestic use by 50,000 bales to 1.5 million bales. Exports were raised by 100,000 bales to 12.3 million. The changes resulted in carryout being reduced by 50,000 bales to 4.15 million from last month’s forecast. USDA also raised the average cash price half a cent to 62 cents per pound.
On new-crop cotton, USDA reduced supply by cutting production by 410,000 bales to 13.20 million, lowering total supply to 17.36 million bales. The demand-side of the sheet saw domestic use lowered by 100,000 bales to 1.5 million, while exports were left unchanged at 12.3 million. The changes resulted in carryout being lowered by 400,000 bales to 3.6 million, below the average analyst estimate of 3.79 million bales. The average farm price also rose 3 cents to 78 cents per pound.
Global carryover
Corn: 301.38 MMT for 2025-26, up from 298.83 MMT in August— 272.10 MMT for 2026-27, down from 274.66 MMT in August
Beans: 125.27 MMT for 2025-26, up from 125.12 MMT in August— 124.02 MMT for 2026-27, down from 124.21 MMT in August
Wheat: 280.60 MMT for 2025-26, up from 280.22 MMT in August— 276.29 MMT for 2026-27, up from 273.25 MMT in August
Cotton: 75.31 million bales for 2025-26, up from 74.80 million bales in August— 69.86 million bales for 2026-27, up from 69.69 million bales in August
Global production highlights
Argentina beans: 49.5 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 49.5 MMT in August— 50.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 50.0 MMT in August
Brazil beans: 180.5 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 180.5 MMT in August— 186.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 186.0 MMT in August
Argentina wheat: 27.89 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 27.89 MMT in August— 21.5 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 21.0 MMT in August
Australia wheat: 35.99 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 35.99 MMT in August— 31.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 28.0 MMT in August
China wheat: 140.07 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 140.07 MMT in August— 141.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 141.0 MMT in August
Canada wheat: 40.56 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 39.96 MMT in August— 36.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 35.0 MMT in August
EU wheat: 145.14 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 145.11 MMT in August— 133.8 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 134.2 MMT in August
Russia wheat: 90.3 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 90.3 MMT in August— 88.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 88.5 MMT in August
Ukraine wheat: 24.1 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 24.1 MMT in August— 25.4 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 25.4 MMT in August
China corn: 301.24 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 301.24 MMT in August— 307.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 307.0 MMT in August
Argentina corn: 63.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 63.0 MMT in August— 55.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 55.0 MMT in August
Brazil corn: 141.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 140.0 MMT in August— 139.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 139.0 MMT in August
Ukraine corn: 30.9 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 30.9 MMT in August— 31.8 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 31.8 MMT in August
South Africa corn: 18.1 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 18.0 MMT in August— 16.5 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 16.5 MMT in August
China cotton: 35.8 mil. bales for 2025-26, compares with 35.8 mil. bales in August— 33.50 mil. bales for 2026-27, compares with 33.5 mil. bales in August