Market reaction
Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading around a penny higher, soybeans were mostly a nickel lower, winter wheat markets were 1 to 3 cents lower, spring wheat was up 2 to 3 cents and cotton was around 15 points higher.
As of 11:20 a.m. CT, corn is trading mostly 3 cents higher, soybeans are around 7 cents lower, winter wheat is steady to 3 cents higher, spring wheat is around 2 cents higher and cotton is 10 points higher.
U.S. crop production
Cotton: 14.268 million bales; trade expected 14.16 million bales
— compares to 14.115 million bales in November; 14.413 million bales in 2024
USDA raised its cotton production estimate 149,000 bales from last month. Analysts expected USDA to boost production by 36,000 bales. The average yield increased 10 lbs. to 929 lbs. per acre, while harvested area was unchanged at 7.368 million acres.
USDA raised yields across all states growing cotton except Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico. The largest decrease was New Mexico, which saw a 382 pound decrease. Texas and Oklahoma’s reductions were more modest at 40 and 35 pounds, respectively. Notable increases were seen across states along the Mississippi Delta. Arkansas saw yields increase 47 pounds to 1,538. Louisiana and Mississippi followed closely behind with yield increases pushing their average state yields to 1,486 pounds and 1,329 pounds each.
U.S. carryover
Corn: 2.029 billion bu. for 2025-26, down from 2.154 billion bu. in November
— compares with 1.532 billion bu. in 2024-25
Beans: 290 million bu. for 2025-26 , unchanged from November
— compares with 316 million bu. in 2024-25
Wheat: 901 million bu. for 2025-26, unchanged from November
— compares with 851 million bu. in 2024-25
Cotton: 4.5 million bales for 2025-26, up from 4.3 million bales in November
— compares with 4.0 million bales in 2024-25
USDA cut corn ending stocks 125 million bu. from last month. It made no changes to supply. On the demand side of the balance sheet, USDA raised export demand 125 million bushels to a record 3.2 billion bushels.USDA left their average farm price unchanged at $4.00.
USDA kept its soybean ending stocks forecast unchanged, making no changes to the 2025-26 balance sheet.
USDA made no changes to the U.S. wheat balance sheet.
USDA raised cotton ending stocks 200,000 bales from last month. Total supply increased 150,000 bales amid the bigger crop estimate. USDA lowered domestic use 100,000 bales to 1.6 million bales and increased unaccounted use 50,000 bales to -30,000 bales. USDA lowered its average cash price projection to 60 cents per lbs, down two cents.
Global carryover
Corn: 279.15 MMT for 2025-26, down from 281.34 MMT in November
— compares with 293.37 MMT in 2024-25
Beans: 122.37 MMT for 2025-26, up from 121.99 MMT in November
— compares with 123.24 MMT in 2024-25
Wheat: 274.87 MMT for 2025-26, up from 271.43 MMT in November
— compares with 260.03 MMT in 2024-25
Cotton: 75.97 million bales for 2025-26, up from 75.93 million bales in November
— compares with 74.61 million bales in 2024-25
Global production highlights
Argentina beans: 48.5 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 48.5 MMT in November
— 51.1 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 51.1 MMT in November
Brazil beans: 175.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 175.0 MMT in November
— 171.50 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 171.5 MMT in November
Argentina wheat: 24.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 22.0 MMT in November
— 18.51 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 18.51 MMT in November
Australia wheat: 37.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 36.0 MMT for November
— 34.11 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 34.11 MMT in November
China wheat: 140.00 MMT for 2025-26; compares with 140.0 MMT in November
— 140.1 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 140.1 MMT in November
Canada wheat: 39.96 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 37.0 MMT in November
— 35.9 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 35.9 MMT in November
EU wheat: 144.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 142.3 MMT in November
— 122.15 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 122.2 MMT in November
Russia wheat: 87.5 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 86.5 MMT in November
— 81.6 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 81.6 MMT in November
Ukraine wheat: 23.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares from 23.0 MMT in November
— 23.4 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 23.4 MMT in November
China corn: 295.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 295.0 MMT in November
— 294.9 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 294.9 MMT in November
Argentina corn: 53.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 53.0 MMT in November
— 50.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 50.0 MMT in November
Brazil corn: 131.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 131.0 MMT in November
— 136.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 136.0 MMT in November
Ukraine corn: 29.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 32.0 MMT for November
— 26.8 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 26.8 MMT in November
South Africa corn: 16.5 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 16.5 MMT in November
— 17.1 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 17.0 MMT in November
China cotton: 33.50 mil. bales for 2025-26, compares with 33.5 mil. bales in November
— 32.0 million bales for 2024-25, compares with 32.0 million bales in November