Market reaction
Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading 1 to 2 cents higher, soybeans were steady to a penny higher, wheat futures were 2 to 5 cents higher, and cotton was 40 to 60 points lower.
As of 11:20 a.m. CT, corn futures are 11 to 13 cents higher, soybeans are trading 33 to 35 cents higher, wheat futures are 5 to 6 cents higher and cotton is 10 to 20 points lower.
U.S. crop production
Corn: 15.893 billion bu.; trade expected 15.979 billion bu.— compares to 16.033 billion bu. in October; 16.964 billion bu. in 2025
Beans: 4.574 billion bu.; trade expected 4.596 billion bu.— compares to 4.561 billion bu. in October; 4.261 billion bu. in 2025
Cotton: 13.175 million bales; trade expected 13.16 million bales— compares to 13.442 million bales in October; 13.897 million bales in 2025
USDA cut its corn crop estimate 141 million bu. from last month. The average yield declined 1.6 bu. to 179.6 bu. per acre, 6.9 bu. Below last year’s record. Harvested area was unchanged at 88.506 million acres.
Compared to last month, USDA cut yields in Illinois (down 8 bu. to 200 bu.), Indiana (down 5 bu. to 195 bu.), Kansas (down 1 bu. to 124 bu.), Michigan (down 10 bu. to 170 bu.), Missouri (down 5 bu. to 176 bu.), Nebraska (down 4 bu. To 184 bu.) and North Dakota (down 3 bu. To 129 bu.). USDA raised yields in Minnesota (up 9 bu. to 204 bu.), South Dakota (up 2 bu. to 153 bu.), and Wisconsin (up 2 bu. to 184 bu.). Yields were steady in Iowa (at 219 bu.) and Ohio (at 200 bu.)
USDA increased its soybean production estimate 13 million bu. from last month. The yield rose 0.2 bu. to 53.3 bu. per acre, up 0.3 bu. from last year’s record. Harvested area was unchanged at 85.881 million acres.
Compared to last month, USDA cut yields in Arkansas (down 3 bu. To 56.0 bu.), Kansas (down 3 bu. to 30 bu.), Michigan (down 1 bu. to 50 bu.), Missouri (down 2 bu. to 46 bu.). USDA raised yields in Iowa (up 2 bu. to 65 bu.), Minnesota (up 5 bu. to 54 bu.), Nebraska (up 3 bu. to 62 bu.), North Dakota (up 1 bu. to 33 bu.) and South Dakota (up 3 bu. to 45 bu.). USDA kept yield unchanged in Indiana (63 bu.), Ohio (62 bu.) and Wisconsin (54 bu.).
USDA trimmed its cotton production estimate 722,000 bales from last month to 13.175 million bales. Harvested area was unchanged at 8.164 million acres. The U.S. average yield was trimmed 15 pounds from last month to 775 pounds per acre.
USDA dropped yields across most of the Southern cotton belt. Alabama (down 65 lb. to 856 lb), Florida (down 64 lb. to 714 lb.), Missouri (down 47 lb. to 1338 lb.) and Texas (down 30 lb. to 507 lb.) all saw declines. Yields in the mid-south were more favorable with Tennessee increasing 76 lb. to 1,137 lb, and North Carolina rising 42 lb. to 1,101 lb. Yields were left unchanged in Georgia, (932 lb), Arkansas (1,384 lb.) and Mississippi (1,149 lb.).
U.S. carryover
Corn: 1.758 billion bu. for 2026-27, down from 1.849 billion bu. in October— compares with 2.095 billion bu. in 2025-26
Beans: 300 million bu. for 2026-27, down from 315 million bu. in October— compares with 315 million bu. in 2025-26
Wheat: 743 million bu. for 2026-27, up from 740 million bu. in October— compares with 920 million bu. in 2025-26
Cotton: 3.7 million bales for 2026-27, down from 3.8 million bales in October— compares with 4.15 million bales in 2025-26
USDA cut 2026-27 corn carryover 91 million bu. from October. USDA dropped total supplies 141 million bu. from last month due to the smaller corn crop estimate. USDA made multiple cuts to the demand side of the 2026-27 corn balance sheet, lowering feed & residual use 25 million bushels to 5.975 billion bu.; also cutting exports by 25 million bushels to 3.275 billion bu; and leaving food, seed & industrial use unchanged at 7.005 billion (with 5.65 billion to corn-for-ethanol). USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2026-27 at $4.60, down a dime from last month.
Soybean carryover for 2026-27 was reduced 15 million bu. from last month. USDA raised total supplies 12 million bu. from last month due to the larger crop estimate. On the demand side of the balance sheet, USDA raised its export forecast 25 million bushels to 1.72 billion bushels. Seed use was also increased 3 million bushels to 76 million, while residual was lowered 1 million bushels to 37 million. Total use at 4.614 billion bu. is up 27 million bu. from last month. USDA puts the 2026-27 national average on-farm cash bean price at $12.10, up a dime from last month.
Wheat carryover increased 3 million bu. from last month. USDA left the supply side of the balance sheet unchanged this month. On the demand side, USDA decreased food use by 3 million bu. to 957 million bu. resulting in total use also falling 3 million bushels to 1.856 billion bushels. USDA puts the 2026-27 national average on-farm cash wheat price at $6.20, down a dime from last month.
Cotton carryover decreased 100,000 bales from last month. Total supplies declined 260,000 bales from last month due to the reduction in the cotton crop. USDA cut total use 100,000 bales due to a 100,000-bale cut to domestic mill use (which now stand at 1.4 million bales). USDA also cut lowered unaccounted use 70,000 bales to -70,000 bales. USDA puts the 2026-27 national average on-farm cash cotton price at 76 cents, down a penny from last month.
Global carryover
Corn: 308.31 MMT for 2025-26, up from 307.16 MMT in October— 281.94 MMT for 2026-27, up from 280.44 MMT in October
Beans: 124.98 MMT for 2025-26, up from 124.93 MMT in October— 123.5 MMT for 2026-27, down from 124.28 MMT in October
Wheat: 282.86 MMT for 2025-26, up from 281.55 MMT in October— 280.82 MMT for 2026-27, up from 276.04 MMT in October
Cotton: 75.64 million bales for 2025-26, down from 75.70 million bales in October— 70.57 million bales for 2026-27, down from 70.68 million bales in October
Global production highlights
Argentina beans: 49.26 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 49.3 MMT in October— 50.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 50.0 MMT in October
Brazil beans: 180.50 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 180.5 MMT in October— 186.00 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 186.0 MMT in October
Argentina wheat: 27.89 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 27.89 MMT in October— 23.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 21.5 MMT in October
Australia wheat: 35.99 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 35.99 MMT for October— 32.50 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 31.0 MMT in October
China wheat: 140.07 MMT for 2025-26; compares with 140.07 MMT in October— 141.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 141.0 MMT in October
Canada wheat: 40.56 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 40.56 MMT in October— 36.50 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 36.50 MMT in October
EU wheat: 145.14 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 134.87 MMT in October— 133.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 133.0 MMT in October
Russia wheat: 90.3 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 90.3 MMT in October— 88.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 88.0 MMT in October
Ukraine wheat: 24.10 MMT for 2025-26, compares from 24.10 MMT in October— 26.5 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 26.0 MMT in October
China corn: 301.24 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 301.24 MMT in October— 307.00 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 307.0 MMT in October
Argentina corn: 64.00 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 64.0 MMT in October— 57.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 55.0 MMT in October
Brazil corn: 144.50 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 141.0 MMT in October— 141.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 139.0 MMT in October
Ukraine corn: 30.9 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 30.9 MMT for October— 31.8 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 31.8 MMT in October
South Africa corn: 18.4 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 18.1 MMT in October— 15.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 16.5 MMT in October
China cotton: 35.80 million bales for 2025-26, compares with 35.80 million bales in Oct.— 34.00 million bales for 2026-27, compares with 33.50 million bales in October