Market reaction
Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading around a nickel higher, soybeans were 7 to 9 cents higher, wheat futures were around 30 cents higher and cotton was around 10 points higher.
As of 11:30 a.m. CT, corn is trading 6 to 7 cents higher, soybeans are 7 to 10 cents higher, wheat is 21 to 25 cents higher and cotton is around 55 points higher.
Winter wheat production
All wheat: 1.536 billion bu.; trade expected 1.535 billion bu.— compares with 1.543 billion bu. in June; 1.985 billion bu. in 2025
All winter wheat: 990 million bu.; trade expected 1.004 billion bu.— compares with 1.029 billion bu. in June; 1.401 billion bu. in 2025
HRW: 471 million bu.; trade expected 481 million bu.— compares with 497 million bu. in June; 804 million bu. in 2025
SRW: 287 million bu.; trade expected 292 million bu.— compares with 300 million bu. in June; 352 million bu. in 2025
White winter: 232 million bu.; trade expected 229 million bu.— compares with 233 million bu. in June; 283 million bu. in 2025
Other spring wheat: 475 million bu.; trade expected 458 million bu. — compares with 497 million bu. in 2025
Durum wheat: 71 million bu.; trade expected 75 million bu. — compares with 86 million bu. in 2025
USDA’s first all-wheat production estimate fell 7 million bu. from the June projection but was 1 million bu. higher than analysts expected. The winter wheat crop estimate declined 39 million bu. from last month, though that was somewhat than offset by bigger-than-expected other spring wheat production. USDA estimated the all-wheat yield at 47.9 bu. per acre, up 0.9 bu. from last month’s projection but 5.4 bu. below last year.
USDA estimated the other spring wheat yield at 52.3 bu. per acre, which would be the second highest yield on record. Of the total other spring wheat production, HRS is estimated at 436 million bushels.
U.S. carryover Corn: 2.02 billion bu. for 2025-26, down from 2.079 billion bu. in June — 1.79 billion bu. for 2026-27, down from 1.960 billion bu. in June
Beans: 330 million bu. for 2025-26, down from 340 million bu. in June — 310 million bu. for 2026-27, unchanged from June
Wheat: 920 million bu. for 2025-26, down from 935 million bu. in June — 722 million bu. for 2026-27, down from 744 million bu. in June
Cotton: 4.2 million bales for 2025-26, unchanged from June — 4.1 million bales for 2026-27, up from 3.7 million bales in June
USDA cut old-crop corn carryover 125 million bu. from last month while stocks were 59 million bu. Below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA made no change on the supply side of the old-crop balance sheet. For 2025-26 demand, USDA boosted estimated Feed & Residual use 150 million bu. (to 6.35 billion), reduced Food, Seed & Industrial use 25 million bu. from last month to 6.905 billion bu. (corn-for-ethanol accounted for the change to 5.55 billion bu.) and left estimated exports unchanged (at 3.325 billion bushels. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2025-26 at $4.15, steady from last month.
Corn production for 2026/27 is up fractionally based on updated planted and harvested area from the June 30 Acreage report. The yield is unchanged at 183.0 bushels per acre. Total use is raised 50 million bushels on an increase in exports. Exports are higher reflecting expectations of continued global demand strength. With use rising and supply falling, ending stocks are down 170 million bushels to 1.79 billion. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.40 per bushel.
USDA’s old-crop soybean carryover estimate is down 10 million bu. from June (at 330 million) and is 7 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA made no change to the old-crop supply. On the demand side, USDA left crush at 2.65 billion bu. but increased estimated exports 10 million bu. (to 1.52 billion). USDA made minor adjustments to seed and residual use that offset. USDA puts the 2025-26 national average on-farm cash bean price at $10.40, steady from last month.
New-crop bean carryover is steady. from last month and is 22 million bu. Below the average pre-report trade estimate. Total supply is up 40 million bu. due to a higher planted and harvested acres from the June 30 Acreage Report. USDA increased projected new-crop exports 30 million bu. from June to 1.66 billion bu., and left crush unchanged at 2.75 billion. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash bean price for 2026-27 at $11.40, steady from last month.
Old-crop wheat carryover at 920 million bu. was set by the June 1 Quarterly Grain Stocks Report. To get to that level, USDA trimmed 2 million bu. from exports (to 908 million), added 18 million bu. to feed & residual use (to 118 million) and adjusted seed use 2 million bu. Lower (to 58 million). USDA puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price for 2026-27 at $5.06, up a penny from last month.
New-crop wheat carryover is down 22 million bu. from last month but is 4 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. Total supplies are down 22 million bu. due to the smaller beginning stocks and the slight decrease in the crop estimate. USDA made no changes to the demand side of the balance sheet. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price for 2026-27 at $6.00, unchanged from last month.
USDA’s old-crop cotton carryover is steady from last month. USDA made no change on the supply or demand side of the 2025-26 balance sheet. USDA lowered the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2025-26 half a cent to 62.5 cents.
New-crop cotton carryover is up 400,000 bales from last month. USDA raised production 400,000 bales due to an increase in harvested acres from the June Acreage Report and a modest bump in yield. USDA made no changes to the demand side of the new-crop balance sheet. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2026-27 at 73 cents, unchanged from last month.
Global carryover
Corn: 298.67 MMT for 2025-26, down from 303.36 MMT in June— 275.26 MMT for 2026-27, down from 281.22 MMT in June
Beans: 125.33 MMT for 2025-26, down from 125.52 MMT in June— 124.17 MMT for 2026-27, down from 124.88 MMT in June
Wheat: 279.04 MMT for 2025-26, down from 279.95 MMT in June— 272.84 MMT for 2026-27, down from 275.42 MMT in June
Cotton: 75.72 million bales for 2025-26, down from 76.63 million bales in June— 71.22 million bales for 2026-27, up from 71.13 million bales in June
Global production highlights
Argentina beans: 50.0 MMT for 2025-26, unchanged from June— 50.0 MMT for 2026-27, unchanged from June
Brazil beans: 180.0 MMT for 2025-26, unchanged from June— 186.0 MMT for 2026-27, unchanged from June
Argentina wheat: 27.92 MMT for 2025-26, unchanged from June— 21.0 MMT for 2026-27, unchanged from June
Australia wheat: 35.99 MMT for 2025-26, unchanged from June— 28.0 MMT for 2026-27, unchanged from June
China wheat: 140.07 MMT for 2025-26, unchanged from June— 141.0 MMT for 2026-27, unchanged from June
Canada wheat: 39.96 MMT for 2025-26, unchanged from June— 34.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 35.0 MMT in June
EU wheat: 145.11 MMT for 2025-26, unchanged from June— 136.0 MMT for 2026-27, unchanged from June
Russia wheat: 90.3 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 90.3 MMT in June— 88.5 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 88.0 MMT in June
Ukraine wheat: 24.1 MMT for 2025-26, unchanged from June— 24.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 23.5 MMT in June
China corn: 301.24 MMT for 2025-26, unchanged from June— 307.0 MMT for 2026-27, unchanged from June
Argentina corn: 63.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 61.0 MMT in June— 55.0 MMT for 2026-27, unchanged from June
Brazil corn: 138.0 MMT for 2025-26, unchanged from June— 139.0 MMT for 2026-27, unchanged from June
Ukraine corn: 30.9 MMT for 2025-26, unchanged from June— 30.0 MMT for 2026-27, unchanged from June
South Africa corn: 18.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 17.7 MMT in June— 16.5 MMT for 2026-27, unchanged from June
China cotton: 35.8 mil. bales for 2025-26, unchanged from June— 33.5 mil. bales for 2026-27, unchanged from June