Market reaction
Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading around 2 cents higher, soybeans were 6 to 8 cents higher, wheat futures were steady to 4 cents lower and cotton was around 135 points higher.
As of 11:20 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 27 to 30 cents lower, soybeans are 12 to 15 cents lower, wheat futures are mostly 18 to 21 cents lower and cotton is around 20 points lower.
U.S. crop production
Corn: 16.033 billion bu.; trade expected 15.733 billion bu.— compares to 15.799 billion bu. in September; 17.020 billion bu. in 2025
Beans: 4.561 billion bu.; trade expected 4.538 billion bu.— compares to 4.534 billion bu. in September; 4.261 billion bu. in 2025
Cotton: 13.442 million bales; trade expected 12.970 million bales— compares to 13.201 million bales in September; 13.897 million bales in 2025
USDA raised its corn crop estimate 234 million bu. from last month. The yield increased 2.7 bu. to 181.2 bu. per acre. Harvested area remained at 88.506 million acres.
Compared to last month, USDA raised yields in Nebraska (up 11 bu. to 188 bu.), Michigan (up 7 bu. to 180 bu.), Ohio (up 6 bu. to 200 bu.), South Dakota (up 6 bu. to 151 bu.), Kansas (up 4 bu. to 125 bu.) and North Dakota (up 2 bu. to 132 bu.) Yields were unchanged in Indiana, (200 bu.) Iowa (219 bu.), and Minnesota (195 bu.). Yields declined in Illinois by 1 bu. to 208 bu. per acre.
USDA raised its soybean crop estimate 27 million bu. from last month. The yield rose 0.3 bu. to 53.1 bu. per acre. Harvested area remained at 85.881 million acres.
Compared to last month, USDA raised yields were lowered in Kansas (down 2 bu. to 33 bu.), Missouri (down 2 bu. to 48 bu.), Iowa (down 1 bu. to 63 bu.) and Nebraska (down 1 bu. to 59 bu.). Yields were unchanged in Indiana (63 bu.), Minnesota (49 bu.), and South Dakota (42 bu.) Yields were increased in Ohio (up 3 bu. to 62 bu.), Michigan (up 3 bu. to 51 bu.), North Dakota (up 2 bu. to 32 bu.), Illinois (up 2 bu. to 68 bu.) and Arkansas (up 2 bu. to 59 bu.).
USDA increased its cotton crop estimate 241,000 bales from last month. The yield was raised 14 lbs. to 790 lbs. per acre. Harvested area was unchanged at 8.164 million acres. USDA increased the Texas yield by 5 pounds to 537 pounds, increased Oklahoma’s yield by 30 pounds to 285, increased Arkansas 87 pounds to 1,384 pounds. Yields were unchanged in Georgia. Alabama and South Carolina were the only states in the southern cotton belt that saw yield declines, down 65 pounds to 921 pounds, and down 24 pounds to 804 pounds, respectively.
U.S. carryover
Corn: 1.849 billion bu. for 2026-27, up from 1.567 billion bu. in September— 2.095 billion bu. for 2025-26, up from 1.922 billion bu. in September
Beans: 315 million bu. for 2026-27, up from 310 million bu. in September— 315 million bu. for 2025-26, down from 325 million bu. in September
Wheat: 740 million bu. for 2026-27, up from 717 million bu. in September
Cotton: 3.80 million bales for 2026-27, up from 3.60 million bales in September— 4.15 million bales for 2025-26, steady from 4.15 million bales in September
Old-crop corn carryover of 2.095 was set by the Quarterly Grain Stocks Report as of Sept. 1 and is up 173 million bu. from the September Supply & Demand Report. To get to that level, USDA cut total old-crop supplies 56 million bu. with the 2025 corn crop cut 57 million bu. While imports increased 1 million bushels. Total old-crop use is put at 16.451 billion bu., down 229 million bu. from September. Food, Seed & Industrial use is estimated at 6.903 billion bu., down 2 million bu. from last month with corn-for-ethanol use put at 5.547 billion bu., accounting for 3 million bu. of that decrease with other use rising 1 million bushels. Old-crop corn Feed & Residual use is put at 6.119 billion bu., down 231 million bu. from last month and exports are estimated at 3.429 billion bu., up 4 million bu. from September. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2025-26 at $4.16, up a penny from last month.
New-crop corn carryover at 1.849 billion bu. is up 282 million bu. from last month and is 179 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. Total supplies were increased 407 million bu. with a bump in ending stocks and production. Total new-crop corn use is projected at 16.603 billion bu., up 125 million bu. from last month. USDA increased domestic 100 millon bushels, with Feed & Residual up 50 million bu. And ethanol use up 50 million bushels. The export forecast by 25 million bu. to 3.3 billion bushels. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2025-26 at $4.70, down a dime from last month.
Old-crop soybean carryover of 315 million bu. was set by the Quarterly Grain Stocks Report as of Sept. 1, down 10 million bu. from the September S&D Report. To get to that level, USDA cut total supplies 4 million bu. with a 1-million-bu. reduction to the 2025 bean crop and a 3-million-bu. cut to estimated old-crop imports. Total use was bumped 6 million bu. from last month with crush at 2.646 billion bu. (down 9 million bu. from last month), residual use is estimated at 57 million bu. (up 20 million bu.) and exports are put at 1.515 billion bu. (down 5 million bu. from last month). USDA puts the national average on-farm cash bean price for 2025-26 at $10.50, steady from last month.
New-crop soybean carryover at 315 million bu. is up 5 million bu. from last month and 10 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. Total new-crop supplies were increased 17 million bu. from last month with a bigger crop estimate more than offsetting the decrease to beginning stocks. Estimated total use for 2026-27 is up 12 million bu. from last month due to a 10-million-bu. Increase in export use to 1.695 billion bushels. Crush was unchanged from last month at 2.78 billion bu. and residual use was increased 1 million bushels to 39 billion bushels. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash soybean price for 2026-27 at $12.00, unchanged from last month.
Wheat carryover for 2026-27 is projected at 740 million bu., up 23 million bu. from last month and 19 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA raised total supply by 8 million bu. due to a 3-million bu. bump to production and a 5-million-bu. increase in estimated imports. USDA decreased total wheat use by 15 million bu. While feed and residual was boosted 10 million bu., the exports forecast was cut by 25 million bu. Due to recent poor performance in weekly export reports. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price for 2026-27 at $6.30, down a dime from last month.
Old-crop cotton carryover is unchanged from last month. USDA made no changes to the old-crop supply or demand estimates from September. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2023-24 at 62.2 cents, up 0.2 cent from last month.
New-crop cotton carryover is up 200,000 bales from last month. USDA boosted total supplies 240,000 bales from last month due to the larger domestic crop production estimate. USDA left the demand side of the balance sheet mostly unchanged, with exports remaining at 12.3 million bales and domestic use at 1.5 million. Unaccounted use was adjusted from -40,000 bales to 0 bales. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2026-27 at 77 cents, down a penny from last month.
Global carryover
Corn: 307.16 MMT for 2025-26, up from 301.38 MMT in September— 280.44 MMT for 2026-27, up from 272.10 MMT in September
Beans: 124.93 MMT for 2025-26, down from 125.27 MMT in September— 124.28 MMT for 2026-27, up from 124.02 MMT in September
Wheat: 281.55 MMT for 2025-26, up from 280.60 MMT in September— 276.04 MMT for 2026-27, down from 276.29 MMT in September
Cotton: 75.70 million bales for 2025-26, up from 75.31 million bales in September— 70.68 million bales for 2026-27, up from 69.86 million bales in September
Global production highlights
Argentina beans: 49.3 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 49.5 MMT in September— 50.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 50.0 MMT in September
Brazil beans: 180.50 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 180.5 MMT in September— 186.00 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 186.0 MMT in September
Argentina wheat: 27.89 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 27.89 MMT in September— 21.5 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 21.5 MMT in September
Australia wheat: 35.99 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 35.99 MMT for September— 31.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 31.0 MMT in September
China wheat: 140.07 MMT for 2025-26; compares with 140.07 MMT in September— 141.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 141.0 MMT in September
Canada wheat: 40.56 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 39.96 MMT in September— 36.50 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 36.0 MMT in September
EU wheat: 134.87 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 145.14 MMT in September— 123.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 133.8 MMT in September
Russia wheat: 90.3 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 90.3 MMT in September— 88.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 88.0 MMT in September
Ukraine wheat: 24.10 MMT for 2025-26, compares from 24.1 MMT in September— 26.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 26.0 MMT in September
China corn: 301.24 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 301.24 MMT in September— 307.00 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 307.0 MMT in September
Argentina corn: 64.00 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 63.0 MMT in September— 55.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 55.0 MMT in September
Brazil corn: 141.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 141.0 MMT in September— 139.0 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 139.0 MMT in September
Ukraine corn: 30.9 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 30.9 MMT for September— 31.8 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 31.8 MMT in September
South Africa corn: 18.1 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 18.0 MMT in September— 16.5 MMT for 2026-27, compares with 16.5 MMT in September
China cotton: 35.8 million bales for 2025-26, compares with 35.80 million bales in Sept.— 33.5 million bales for 2026-27, compares with 33.5 million bales in September