Market Reaction
Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading a penny to two cents higher, soybeans were 6 to 8 cents higher, winter wheat futures were 9 to 12 cents higher and cotton was about 70 points higher.
As of 11:30 a.m. CT, corn is trading 15 to 17 cents lower, soybeans are around 10 cents lower, wheat futures are 4 to 6 cents lower and cotton is around 70 points higher.
Annual Production Summary
Corn: 17.021 billion bu.; trade expected 16.553. billion bu.— compares to 16.752 billion bu. in November; 14.892 billion bu. in 2024
Beans: 4.262 billion bu.; trade expected 4.232 billion bu.— compares to 4.253 billion bu. in November; 4.374 billion bu. in 202
Cotton: 13.918 million bales; trade expected 14.20 million bales— compares to 14.27 million bales in December; 14.413 million bales in 2024
USDA increased its corn crop estimate 268 million bu. from November. The yield was increased 0.5 bu. to 186.5 bu. per acre, which toppled last year’s record by 7.2 bu. per acre. Harvested area was increased 1.211 million acres to 91.258 million acres.
USDA increased its soybean crop estimate 9 million bu. from November. USDA left yield unchanged at 53.0 bu. per acre. Harvested area was increased 124,000 acres to 80.437 million acres.
USDA cut its cotton crop estimate 197,000 bales from last month. It decreased yield by 63 lbs. to 847 lbs. per acre. Harvested area was boosted 436,000 acres to 7.805 million acres.
Quarterly Grain Stocks
Corn: 13.283 billion bu.; trade expected 12.980 billion bu.— compares to 1.551 billion bu. Sept. 1; 12.075 billion bu. Dec. 1, 2024
Beans: 3.290 billion bu.; trade expected 3.258 billion bu.— compares to 325 million bu. Sept. 1; 3.100 billion bu. Dec. 1, 2024
Wheat: 1.675 billion bu.; trade expected 1.637 billion bu.— compares to 2.134 billion bu. Sept. 1; 1.572 billion bu. Dec. 1, 2024
USDA estimated Dec. 1 corn stocks at 13.283 billion bu., 1.208 billion bu. above year-ago and 303 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA puts total corn stored on-farm at 8.699 billion bu., up 1.036 billion bu. (14%) from year-ago. Total off-farm corn stocks are estimated at 4.583 billion bu., up 171 million bu. (4.0%) from year-ago. Total corn disappearance in the first-quarter of the 2025-26 marketing year is indicated at a record 5.30 billion bu., up from 4.56 billion bu. the same time last year.
USDA estimated Dec. 1 bean stocks at 3.290 billion bu., up 190 million bu. from year-ago and 32 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA puts total on-farm bean stocks at 1.576 billion bu., up 36 million bu. (2%) from year-ago. Total off-farm bean stocks of 1.714 billion bu. are up 154 million bu. (10%) from year-ago. Implied disappearance of beans in the first quarter of the 2025-26 marketing year is 1.30 billion bu., down 20% from the same period last year.
USDA estimated Dec. 1 wheat stocks at 1.675 billion bu., up 103 million bu. from year-ago and 38 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. Total on-farm wheat stocks of 445 million bu. are down 21 million bu. (4.7%) from year-ago. Total off-farm wheat stocks are estimated at 1.229 billion bu., up 124 million bu. (10%) from year-ago. Implied disappearance of wheat in the second quarter of the 2025-26 marketing year is 459 million bu., up 8% from the same time last year.
Winter Wheat Seedings
All winter wheat: 32.990 mil. acres; trade expected 32.4 mil. acres— compares to 33.153 mil. acres in 2025
HRW: 23.5 mil. acres; trade expected 23.0 mil. acres— compares to 23.5 mil. acres in 2025
SRW: 6.14 mil. acres; trade expected 5.9 mil. acres— compares to 6.14 mil. acres in 2025
White winter: 3.36 mil. acres; trade expected 3.5 mil. acres— compares to 3.53 mil. acres in 2025
USDA estimated U.S. winter wheat seedings down 163,000 acres from last year. Traders expected a slightly higher decline in plantings. Planted area is estimated down 11,000 acres for HRW, while acres for SRW increased 40,000 acres. White winter wheat is down 170,000 acres from last year.
U.S. carryover
Corn: 2.227 billion bu., up from 2.029 billion bu. in December— compares with 1.551 billion bu. in 2024-25
Beans: 350 million bu. for 2025-26, up from 290 million bu. in December— compares with 325 million bu. in 2024-25
Wheat: 926 million bu. for 2025-26, up from 901 million bu. in December— compares with 855 million bu. in 2024-25
Cotton: 4.2 million bales for 2025-26, down from 4.5 million bales in December — compares with 4.0 million bales in 2024-25
USDA added 198 million bu. to projected corn carryover from December. The estimate is also 255 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA added 288 million bu. to total supplies, the result of a 269 million bushel rise in production. USDA boosted total use 90 million bu. from last month. USDA added 100 million bu. to feed & residual use (to 6.2billion bu.) and left exports unchanged at 3.2 billion bushels. Food, seed & industrial use was cut 10 million bushels to 6.97 billion bu. (with corn-for-ethanol use unchanged from last month at 5.6 billion bushels). USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2024-25 at $4.10, up 10 cents from last month.
Soybean carryover was raised 60 million bu. from last month and was 58 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA raised total supplies 17 million bu. from last month due to a larger crop and beginning stocks. Total use was cut 43 million bu. from last month due to a 60-million-bu. Reduction in exports, partly offset by a 15 million bu. Rise for crush. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash bean price for 2024-25 at $10.20, down from $10.50.
Wheat carryover rose 25 million bu. to 926 million bushels, and was 30 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA increased total supplies 4 million bu. from last month due to an equal increase in beginning stocks. Total use fell 21 million bu. Due to a fall in domestic use. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price for 2025-26 at $4.90, down from $5 in December.
Cotton carryover is down 300,000 bales from December. USDA cut total supplies 350,000 bales due to the smaller crop estimate. Total use was unchanged from last month with exports unchanged at 12.2 million. Unaccounted use was decreased 50,000 bales to -80,000 bales. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2024-25 at 61 cents, up a penny from last month.
Global carryover
Corn: 290.91 MMT for 2025-26, up from 279.15 MMT in December— compares with 294.7 MMT in 2024-25
Beans: 124.41 MMT for 2025-26, up from 122.37 MMT in December— compares with 123.4 MMT in 2024-25
Wheat: 278.25 MMT for 2025-26, up from 274.87 MMT in December— compares with 260.00 MMT in 2024-25
Cotton: 74.48 million bales for 2025-26, down from 75.97 million bales in December— compares with 73.76 million bales in 2024-25
Global production highlights
Argentina beans: 48.5 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 48.5 MMT in December— compares with 51.11 MMT in 2024-25
Brazil beans: 178.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 175.0 MMT in December— compares with 171.5 MMT in 2024-25
Argentina wheat: 27.5 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 24 MMT in December— compares with 18.51 MMT in 2024-25
Australia wheat: 37.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 37.0 MMT in December— compares with 34.11 MMT in 2024-25
China wheat: 140.07 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 140.0 MMT in December— compares with 140.1 MMT in 2024-25
Canada wheat: 39.96 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 39.96 MMT in December — compares with 35.94 MMT in 2024-25
EU wheat: 144.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 144.0 MMT in December— compares with 122.2 MMT in 2024-25
Russia wheat: 89.5 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 87.5 MMT in December— compares with 81.6 MMT in 2024-25
Ukraine wheat: 23.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 23 MMT in December— compares with 23.4 MMT in 2024-25
China corn: 301.24 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 295.0 MMT in December— compares with 294.92 MMT in 2024-25
Argentina corn: 53.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 53.0 MMT in December— compares with 50.0 MMT in 2024-25
Brazil corn: 131.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 131.0 MMT in December— compares with 136.0 MMT in 2024-25
Ukraine corn: 29.0 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 29.0 MMT in December— compares with 26.8 MMT in 2024-25
South Africa corn: 16.5 MMT for 2025-26, compares with 16.5 MMT in December— compares with 17.06 MMT in 2024-25
China cotton: 34.5 mil. bales for 2025-26, compares with 33.5 mil. bales in December— compares with 32.00 million bales in 2024-25