PF Reaction: Corn, bean acres lower than expected
Market reaction
Ahead of USDA's reports, corn futures were trading mostly 14 to 16 cents lower, soybeans are mostly 18 to 21 cents lower, wheat futures are 5 to 10 cents lower and cotton futures are 80 to 100 points lower in the most actively traded contracts.
In reaction to the data, corn futures have soared 30-plus cents, while soybeans have rocketed 71 to 78 cents higher. Winter and spring wheat futures are up 22 to 24 cents in most contracts. Cotton futures are roughly 85 to 130 points lower.
Acreage Report
Corn: 92.692 mil. acres; trade expected 93.787 mil. acres
— compares with 91.144 mil. acres in March; 90.819 mil. acres in 2020
Soybeans: 87.555 mil. acres; traders expected 88.955 mil. acres
— compares with 87.600 mil. acres in March; 83.084 mil. acres in 2020
All wheat: 46.743 mil. acres; traders expected 45.940 mil. acres
— compares with 46.358 mil. acres in March; 44.349 mil. acres in 2020
Spring wheat: 11.580 mil. acres; traders expected 11.408 mil. acres
— compares with 11.740 mil. acres in March; 12.250 mil. acres in 2020
Durum wheat: 1.480 mil. acres; traders expected 1.513 mil. acres
— compares with 1.540 mil. acres in March; 1.684 mil. acres in 2020
Cotton: 11.719 mil. acres; traders expected 11.856 mil. acres
— compares with 12.036 mil. acres in March; 12.093 mil. acres in 2020
USDA estimates corn plantings at 92.692 million acres, up more than 1.5 million acres from March intentions but 1.1 million acres less than the average pre-report estimate. USDA expects 84.495 million acres of corn to be harvested for grain — 91.2% of planted acreage.
Compared with March intentions, USDA estimates corn plantings rose in Illinois (up 300,000 acres to 11.2 million acres), Indiana (up 200,000 to 5.4 million acres), Minnesota (up 500,000 to 8.5 million acres), North Dakota (up 300,000 to 3.6 million acres), Ohio (up 200,000 to 3.6 million acres), South Dakota (up 400,000 to 6 million acres). USDA estimates corn acres declined in Iowa (down 100,000 to 13.1 million acres), Missouri (down 50,000 to 3.35 million acres), Nebraska (down 200,000 to 9.7 million acres) and Wisconsin (250,000 to 3.9 million acres). USDA estimates corn plantings were unchanged from March intentions in Kansas (5.8 million acres) and Michigan (2.25 million acres).
USDA estimates soybean plantings at 87.555 million acres, down 45,000 acres from March intentions and 1.4 million acres below the average pre-report estimate. USDA estimates harvested soybean acres at 86.720 million acres — 99.0% of plantings.
Compared with March intentions, USDA estimates soybean plantings declined in Indiana (down 100,000 acres to 5.7 million acres), Kansas (down 100,000 to 4.6 million acres), Minnesota (down 100,000 to 7.7 million acres), Nebraska (down 100,000 to 5.4 million acres), Ohio (down 100,000 4.9 million acres), South Dakota (down 200,000 to 5.5 million acres) and Wisconsin (down 50,000 to 2.2 million acres). USDA estimates soybean plantings increased compared with March intentions in Arkansas (up 100,000 to 3.1 million acres), Iowa (up 100,000 to 9.9 million acres), Michigan (up 50,000 to 2.3 million acres), Missouri (up 100,000 to 5.9 million acres) and North Dakota (up 200,000 to 7.2 million acres). Soybean plantings were unchanged versus March in Illinois (10.7 million acres).
USDA estimates all wheat plantings at 46.743 million acres, up 385,000 acres from March intentions and 803,000 acres above the average pre-report estimate. Spring wheat plantings at 11.580 million acres declined 160,000 acres from March intentions but were 172,000 acres more than traders expected. North Dakota’s spring wheat acres are estimated at 5.95 million acres, up 350,000 acres from March intentions. USDA estimates 11.215 million acres of spring wheat will be harvested – 96.8% of plantings. Abandonment of 3.2% seems ridiculously low given poor crop ratings. In 1988, the only year with worse crop ratings at the end of June, more than 20% of the U.S. spring wheat crop was abandoned.
USDA estimates cotton seedings at 11.719 million acres, down 317,000 acres versus March intentions and 137,000 acres less than traders expected. Texas cotton plantings dropped 98,000 acres from March intentions to 6.722 million acres, while Georgia seedings were unchanged at 1.2 million acres. USDA’s first harvested acreage estimate for cotton will be released in the August Crop Production Report.
Quarterly Grain Stocks Report
Corn: 4.112 billion bu.; traders expected 4.144 billion bu.
— compares with 7.696 billion bu. March 1 and 5.003 billion bu. June 1, 2020
Soybeans: 767 million bu.; traders expected 787 million bu.
— compares with 1.562 billion bu. March 1 and 1.381 billion bu. June 1, 2020
Wheat: 844 million bu.; traders expected 859 million bu.
— compares with 1.311 billion bu. March 1 and 1.028 billion bu. June 1, 2020
June 1 corn stocks were right in line with pre-report expectations and down 18% from year-ago. Of the total stocks, 1.74 billion bu. (42.3%) were stored on farms, down 39% from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks at 2.37 billion bu. (57.7%) were up 11% from a year ago. The indicated disappearance for the third quarter of 2020-21 at 3.58 billion bu. was up 21.4% compared with the same period last year.
June 1 soybean stocks were 20 million bu. below the average pre-report estimate and down 44% from last year. On-farm stocks totaled 220 million bu. (28.7%), down 65% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks at 547 million bu. (71.3%) were down 27% from a year ago. Indicated disappearance for the March-May quarter totaled 795 million bu., down 9% from the same period a year earlier.
June 1 wheat stocks were 15 million bu. lower than the average pre-report estimate and down 18% from last year. Of that total, on-farm stocks are estimated at 142 million bu. (16.8%), down 38% from last year. Off-farm stocks at 702 million bu. (83.2%) were down 12% from a year ago. The March-May 2021 indicated disappearance is 467 million bu., up 21% from the same period a year earlier.
