USDA released its weekly Crop Progress and Condition report this afternoon, showing winter wheat in 40% very poor to poor, 32% fair, and 28% good to excellent conditions. The good to excellent category was down 3% from last week and came in 4 percentage points below the average analyst estimate according to a poll conducted by Bloomberg. Of the 790 crop progress reports that have contained winter wheat condition ratings, only 20 weeks have seen a Good to Excellent rating less than the current standing. The lowest value seen in the data series was 20% during the week ending May 7th, 1989.
Spotty rainfall across the Plains last week led analysts to believe conditions would remain relatively stable from the previous report, but harsh drought early in the season continues to drive conditions lower. 82% of the winter wheat crop in Nebraska is now rated very poor to poor. Kansas and Oklahoma both noted 51% of the winter wheat crop in very poor to poor conditions, with Colorado and Texas also seeing over half of the states’ crop rated in those categories.
On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop declined 10.90 points to 253.00. The SRW crop notched a very minor increase of 1.07 points to 364.66. Weather in SRW country has helped the crop from deteriorating much further given the milder temperatures and relatively more widespread rains compared to those in the Plains.
| Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index for HRW Wheat | |||
| This week | Last week | Last year | |
| Kansas (39.35%*) | 96.81 | 103.50 | 129.47 |
| Oklahoma (13.12%) | 31.49 | 32.93 | 43.29 |
| Texas (11.2%) | 25.30 | 27.09 | 33.03 |
| Colorado (9.49%) | 22.60 | 23.35 | 31.99 |
| Nebraska (5.64%) | 10.49 | 12.64 | 15.74 |
| S. Dakota (5.10%) | 15.40 | 15.40 | 14.33 |
| Montana (12.73%) | 42.40 | 40.11 | 48.64 |
| HRW total | 253.00 | 263.90 | 329.25 |
* denotes percentage of three-year average of total national HRW crop production.
| Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index for SRW Wheat | |||
| This week | Last week | Last year | |
| Missouri (10.05%*) | 37.38 | 37.88 | 38.78 |
| Illinois (16.54%) | 61.88 | 61.88 | 60.22 |
| Ohio (12.13%) | 45.25 | 45.37 | 44.76 |
| Arkansas (1.58%) | 5.76 | 5.78 | 5.59 |
| Indiana (6.42%) | 24.25 | 24.19 | 24.44 |
| N. Carolina (5.50%) | 15.23 | 14.62 | 20.83 |
| Michigan (10.75%) | 39.87 | 39.23 | 41.49 |
| SRW total | 364.66 | 363.59 | 374.99 |
* denotes percentage of three-year average of total national SRW crop production.