WOTUS Roundtable Monday; Vilsack Testifies Tuesday; WASDE on Thursday

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Democrats continue to push additional Ukraine aide that may contain ag policy changes

 


Washington Focus


House and Senate lawmakers are both in with the focus on additional Ukraine aid (which may include ag-related provisions seeking to boost wheat and soybean plantings) and Cabinet members testifying on the Biden administration’s fiscal year (FY) 2023 budget requests, including USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack on Tuesday.

Ukraine aid. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said U.S. lawmakers are aware of the urgency of approving a proposed $33 billion aid package for Ukraine, though she stopped short of predicting when Congress might pass it. “I think we will be able to do it as quickly as possible,” Pelosi said on CBS’s Face the Nation on Sunday. “We are very current on the needs and the urgency and, again, we will have bipartisanship as we go forward with it.” Asked if Congress would pass the package this month, she said, “I think we have to.”

WOTUS. EPA and the Army Corps of Engineers on Monday will hold the first of several roundtables on the Biden administration’s plans to rewrite the Waters of the U.S. (WOTUS) rule via the Clean Water Act. Link to EPA information.

Vilsack will testify Tuesday before the Senate Ag Appropriations Subcommittee and will be the only witness on the budget request for USDA for FY 2023. Other budget hearings of note this week include:

     • Tuesday: House Transportation-HUD Appropriations Subcommittee hearing with Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.

     • Wednesday: House State-Foreign Operations Appropriations Subcommittee hearing with U.S. Agency for International Development Administrator Samantha Power. Also, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee has a hearing with Power.
     • Wednesday: Senate Commerce-Justice-Science Appropriations Subcommittee hearing with Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo.
     • Wednesday: House Homeland Security Appropriations Subcommittee hearing with Customs and Border Patrol with Commissioner Chris Magnus.
     • Thursday: House Commerce-Justice-Science Appropriations Subcommittee hearing on FY 2023 budget request for the Commerce Department with Secretary Gina Raimondo.

House Agriculture Committee on Thursday will hold a hearing to consider the crypto exchange FTX Trading Ltd’s proposal to the CFTC to allow it to directly approve its customers' margin-backed swaps trades. The hearing will also address trends in new clearinghouse models and how FTX's proposal could signal more applications that seek to skirt intermediaries.

Future of the World Trade Organization (WTO) is the topic of the Bipartisan Policy Center webinar on Thursday.  

Review of the Council on Environmental Quality's (CEQ) work under the Biden administration will take place Wednesday morning before the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee. CEQ chair Brenda Mallory, the first African American to serve in the position, will testify at the oversight hearing about the council's work from the past year. The White House recently picked advocate Jalonne White-Newsome to lead environmental justice efforts for the council, replacing Cecilia Martinez after she left in January.

Farm Foundation has on online forum on Wednesday titled “Farm, Food, and the Policies and Practices Behind America’s Dietary Health.”

Jill Biden, the first lady, made an unannounced trip to Ukraine on Sunday, another signal of support from the U.S. as it increases military aid. Dr. Biden met Ukraine’s first lady, Olena Zelenska, at a school in Uzhhorod, a town of 100,000 people a few miles from the border with Slovakia. The town’s population has doubled in recent weeks with the arrival of people fleeing fighting elsewhere in the country.

 


Economic Reports for the Week


Key report this week comes Wednesday, with the release of the Consumer Price Index. It is expected to show a decrease in the year-over-year inflation rate to 8.1% from 8.5%. Food and auto prices are seen running extra hot, while some deceleration is seen with lodging prices, air fares, and transportation services pricing.

     In the electric vehicle sector, a major auto summit will include a talk by Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Rivian Automotive will roll past the IPO lockup period for early investors. The industry is set to get a boost from the Biden administration's bipartisan infrastructure law enacted last year, which has allocated $3.1 billion in funding for domestic EV battery production.

Monday, May 9

  • Wholesale Inventories (Preliminary)
  • Federal Reserve speaker: Raphael Bostic
     

Tuesday, May 10

  • National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for April. Consensus estimate is for a 92.4 reading, about one point less than in March. The March figure is the lowest for the index since April of 2020, as a labor shortage and surging inflation have dampened small-business owners’ enthusiasm.   
  • Federal Reserve speakers: John Williams, Raphael Bostic, Neel Kashkari and Loretta Mester
     

Wednesday, May 11

  • MBA Mortgage Applications
  • Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases the Consumer Price Index for April. Expectations are for a 8.1% year-over-year reading, while the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen jumping 5.9%. This compares with increases of 8.5% and 6.5% respectively, in March. Wall Street is hoping for confirmation that inflation has peaked, even as economists and the Federal Reserve expect inflation to remain much higher for far longer than they did just six months ago.
  • Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
  • Treasury Statement
  • Federal Reserve speaker: Raphael Bostic
     

Thursday, May 12

  • Jobless Claims: Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 7. In April, jobless claims averaged just 184,000. They recently hit a more-than-five-decade low, despite a workforce that is more than twice as large now as it was then.
  • BLS releases the Producer Price Index for April. Consensus estimate is for a 10.6% year-over-year rise, compared with a 11.2% jump in March, which is the highest on record for index since the 12-month data were first calculated in late 2010. The core PPI is expected to increase 8.9%, after a 9.2% gain in March.
  • Fed Balance Sheet
  • Money Supply  
  • Federal Reserve speaker: Mary Daly
     

Friday, May 13

  • University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for May. Economists forecast a 63.1 reading, about two points less than in April.  
  • Import and Export Prices
  • Federal Reserve speaker: Neel Kashkari
     

Key USDA & international Ag & Energy Reports and Events 


USDA’s May 12 Supply & Demand Report will be the first official release of balance sheets for 2022-23, which will incorporate March planting intentions. The big question with corn is whether USDA lowers its yield to reflect the slow planting pace as of May 1 — a rare occurrence in the past. There are major uncertainties with harvested acres and yield in USDA’s first U.S. winter wheat crop estimate. Globally, focus will be on how much more “Ukraine factor” is added to the old-crop grain and oilseed balance sheets and the new-crop assumptions for both Ukraine and Russia.

Monday, May 9

     Ag reports and events:

  • Export Inspections
  • Crop Progress
  • County Estimates: Cattle & Sheep
  • China’s initial batch of April trade data, including soybeans, edible oil, rubber and meat imports
  • Globoil International 2022 conference on vegetable oils and oilseeds in Dubai, day 1
  • Holiday: Hong Kong, Russia
     

Energy reports and events:

  • China’s initial batch of April trade data, oil, gas imports; oil products imports & exports
     

Tuesday, May 10

     Ag reports and events:

  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s data for April output, exports and stockpiles
  • EU weekly grain, oilseed import and export data
  • Globoil International 2022 in Dubai, day 2
  • Innovation Forum’s virtual Future of Food conference, May 10-12
  • New York sugar seminar hosted by StoneX Financial
  • France agriculture ministry’s monthly grains report
  • Brazil’s Unica may release cane crush and sugar output data during the week
  • Holiday: Russia
     

     Energy reports and events:

  • API weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • EIA releases Short-Term Energy Outlook, or STEO
     

Wednesday, May 11

     Ag reports and events:

  • Broiler Hatchery
  • Meat Price Spreads
  • Globoil International 2022 in Dubai, day 3
  • France AgriMer monthly grains outlook
  • Annual New York Sugar Conference, hosted by Datagro and International Sugar Organization
     

     Energy reports and events:

  • EIA weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • U.S. weekly ethanol inventories
  • Genscape weekly crude inventory report for Europe’s ARA region
     

Thursday, May 12

     Ag reports and events:

  • Weekly Export Sales
  • WASDE
  • Cotton Ginnings, Annual
  • Crop Production
  • Cotton: World Markets and Trade
  • Grain: World Markets and Trade
  • Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade
  • World Agricultural Production
  • County Estimates: Cotton
  • County Estimates: Peanuts
  • Turkey Hatchery
  • China’s agriculture ministry (CASDE) monthly report on supply and demand for corn and soybeans
  • Brazil’s Conab data on area, yield and output of corn and soybeans
     

     Energy reports and events:

  • EIA natural gas storage change
  • OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report
  • IEA’s Oil Market Report
  • Russian weekly refinery outage data from ministry
  • Insights Global weekly oil product inventories in Europe’s ARA region
     

Friday, May 13

     Ag reports and events:

  • CFTC Commitments of Traders report
  • Peanut Prices
  • Feed Grains Database
  • Dairy Monthly Tables and Dairy Quarterly Data
  • Season Average Price Forecasts
  • Wheat Data
  • Agricultural Chemical Usage, Field Crops
  • FranceAgriMer weekly update on crop conditions
     

     Energy reports and events:

  • Baker Hughes weekly U.S. oil/gas rig counts

 

 

 

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