Wednesday CPI Report Focus Ahead of May 2-3 FOMC Confab

IMF/World Bank meetings | Deficit grows | EPA announcement | Biden to Ireland

Washington Focus

Congress is out until April 17.

The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund hold their spring meetings in Washington D.C. this week. World Bank President David Malpass, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. CEO David Solomon and Melinda French Gates of the Gates Foundation are among the speakers.

National Economic Council Director Lael Brainard, former Council of Economic Advisers Chair Jason Furman, U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai, and Mastercard Inc. Vice Chairman and President Michael Froman are a few of the speakers joining Semafor for the World Economy Summit (link) on Wednesday.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Rostin Behnam will give a keynote address at the National Credit Union Administration's Capital Markets Symposium on Tuesday.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Vice Chairman Travis Hill will join the Bipartisan Policy Center to discuss the FDIC's role and response to the recent bank failures and instability in the financial markets on Wednesday.

Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers and former Council of Economic Advisers Chair R. Glenn Hubbard will join the Economic Club of New York for a webinar on Wednesday.

     Summers will also join Foreign Policy magazine on Friday to discuss the economy.

FTC Chair Lina Khan will speak at the 23rd Annual Loyola Antitrust Colloquium at the Loyola University Chicago School of Law on Friday. The event, hosted by the Institute for Consumer Antitrust Studies, will also feature conversations with Sarah Allen of the Department of Justice's Antitrust Division and Public Knowledge's Competition Policy Director Charlotte Slaiman.

EPA on Wednesday is expected to release the strict limits on tailpipe emissions for cars, light duty trucks, along with standards for heavy-duty trucks. The performance-based standards will address carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxide and other pollutants from vehicles with model years from 2027 through 2032, although some environmentalists, public health and EV advocates have lobbied for tougher limits.

Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy on Wednesday will kick off its 2023 Energy Summit (link) and celebrate the 10th year of the event. It will feature speakers like Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, the International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol, BlackRock Inc. Chief Executive Larry Fink, among other industry leaders.

President Joe Biden travels to Northern Ireland. Biden on Tuesday, April 11, will visit Belfast, Northern Ireland, to mark the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, which ended decades of sectarian violence in the region. The visit comes just weeks after the British government reached a compromise with the European Union over the implementation of the Brexit deal in Northern Ireland after years of legal bickering.

     London may seek to use Biden's visit to jump-start conversations over a potential trade deal between the United Kingdom and the United States, according to media reports citing unnamed British officials. Significant obstacles to such a deal remain, however.

     Brazil’s Lula in China. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on April 12-14 will visit China, where he will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Li Qiang. At the meeting, reports say he will likely seek to shore up relations with Brazil's largest trading partner after a rocky relationship between the two countries under former President Jair Bolsonaro.

     Of note to the ag sector: Among the multiple agreements the two countries plan to sign, the Brazilian delegation will likely seek to pressure the Chinese to agree to stream-lined sanitary measures for beef exports from the South American country to avoid periodic pauses in exports.

West Coast workers blamed for shutdown LA and Long Beach ports. Union workers at the ports have been on the job without an employment contract since the previous agreement expired on July 1, 2022. A shortage of West Coast port workers has forced the busiest U.S. ocean trade gateway to shut on Friday, after months of strained labor negotiations between the dock workers union and their employers.

     Workers at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach on Thursday began withholding labor, which was needed to load and unload cargo, as part of a coordinated action by the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU), according to the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA), which represents employers. “The action by the union has effectively shut down the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach,” the PMA said in a statement.

     Operators at the Port of Long Beach decided to temporarily close four of the seaport’s six terminals when workers failed to show up on Friday morning, port spokesman Lee Peterson said, adding that regular operations at the seaport were expected to resume on Saturday.

     Port of Los Angeles officials were communicating with the ILWU and PMA, along with federal, state and local officials, to “support a return to normal operations,” said the group, which is managed by a unit of the City of Los Angeles.

Senate leaders called for WSJ reporter Evan Gershkovich’s release. Meanwhile, Russian state media reported Gershkovich was formally charged with espionage and pleaded not guilty. The WSJ vehemently denies the charges against him. In a joint statement, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said they “strongly condemn the wrongful detention" of Gershkovich. President Biden and other senior officials in the administration have called for his release since he was detained last week. As for any exchange, there is no obvious Russian citizen charged with espionage who is currently in U.S. custody.

Sen. Richard Blumenthal breaks leg during UConn NCAA victory parade. Sen. Blumenthal (D-Ct.) is expected to undergo surgery after he fractured his femur during a victory parade for the UConn Men's Basketball team in Hartford.

On the international front, China said it was simulating precision attacks on key targets in Taiwan as the military drills launched in response to the island president’s meeting with the U.S. House speaker entered a second day. The drills included “tactical maneuvers” by the Chinese navy, state media said.

    China held a second day of military drills around Taiwan on Sunday, with multiple exercises involving aircraft and ships, after the island’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, returned from a visit to the U.S. Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said it detected 70 aircraft from China’s People’s Liberation Army and 11 warships near Taiwan, with 35 of the airplanes crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait and entering the island’s air-defense identification zone. The PLA’s Senior Colonel Shi Yi said Saturday that drills from April 8-10 are a “stern warning against Taiwan separatist forces’ collusion with foreign elements.”

Weekly Calendar of Key Events  

Monday, April 10

• The White House holds the 145th annual White House Easter Egg Roll with the theme “EGGucation,” including thousands of military and veteran families, caregivers, and survivors.

• IMF/World Bank spring meeting. International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group hold their 2023 Spring Meeting; runs through Sunday.

• Economic outlook. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion on “The IMF on the future of interest rates and managing high public debt.”

• State of the global economy. Brookings Institution discussion with Treasury Undersecretary Jay Shambaugh on “The State of the Global Economy.”

• U.S. leadership in the world. Atlantic Council and the University of Nebraska at Omaha hold the Chuck Hagel Forum in Global Leadership on the role of U.S. leadership in a changing world.

• European economy. Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on “The Economic View from Europe.”

• New Brazilian government. Wilson Center holds its Brazil 100 Conference on “What to Make of Lula's First 100 Days,” referring to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretary Tatiana Prazeres delivers keynote remarks.

• China and shadow banks. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on a new report, “China's Campaign Against Shadow Banks and its Consequences.”

• India finance outlook. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion on “India's finance minister on the resilience and growth of the Indian economy.”

Tuesday, April 11

• Federal Reserve. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee to deliver remarks.

• World economic outlook. IMF and the World Bank Group 2023 Spring Meeting and will release the “World Economic Outlook” and the “Global Financial Stability Report.” Runs through Sunday.

• U.S. Codex on committee on food labeling. To receive public comments on agenda items and draft U.S. positions to be discussed at the 47th Session of the Codex Committee on Food Labelling (CCFL) of the Codex Alimentarius Commission, which will meet in Gatineau, Canada, May 15-19, 2023.

• U.S./China relations. Henry L. Stimson Center virtual discussion with U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns on “U.S./China Relations.”

• Trade advisory panel. International Trade Administration meeting of the Environmental Technologies Trade Advisory Committee to discuss major issues affecting the competitiveness of the US environmental technologies industry; Determine subcommittee structure; and Provide consultation on ETTAC leadership. Runs through Wednesday.

• U.S. trade. Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on “Revitalizing American Commercial Diplomacy,” focusing on “efforts to help American companies successfully market their goods and services abroad.”

• China climate vulnerabilities. Wilson Center's China Environment Forum virtual discussion on “China's Climate Security Vulnerabilities.”

• Critical minerals and Latin America. Inter-American Dialogue virtual discussion on “Critical Minerals in Latin America and the Caribbean: The 'S' in ESG (environmental, social, and governance).” Argentine Secretary of Mining Maria Fernanda Avila delivers keynote address.

• Russia’s strategy. United States Institute of Peace book discussion on “Russian Grand Strategy in the Era of Great Power Competition.”

• Russian President Vladimir Putin. Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual book discussion on “Putin: His Life and Times.”

• Consumer protection and the banking industry. Washington Post Live virtual discussion on “Consumer Protection and the Banking Industry.”

• China situation. Georgetown University discussion on “Stabilizing China/U.S. Relations: A Chinese Perspective.”

• World trade. Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual 2023 Macro Week on “the economic challenges of our times, from the outlook for inflation and economic stability to the future of trade, globalization, and digitalization.”

• Cost-benefit analysis. Resources for the Future (discussion on “Modernizing Regulatory Review: Exploring Office of Management and Budget's (OMB) Updates Benefit-Cost Guidance.”

• Russia situation. George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs discussion on “A Rock and A Hard Place: The Russian Opposition in a Time of War.”

Wednesday, April 12

• Federal Reserve. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin to deliver remarks.

• IMF/World Bank spring meeting. IMF and the World Bank Group hold 2023 Spring Meeting, including a press briefing on “Fiscal Monitor,” and a Ministerial roundtable discussion for support to Ukraine. Runs through Sunday.

• WTO chief on climate, trade. Washington International Trade discussion with World Trade Organization Director General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala on climate and trade.

• Transatlantic trade. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research discussion with European Commission Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis on “Transatlantic Trade and Cooperation in Times of Global Turmoil.”

• Peterson Institute Macro Week. Final day of the Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual 2023 Macro Week on “the economic challenges of our times, from the outlook for inflation and economic stability to the future of trade, globalization, and digitalization.”

• Environmental trade issues. Final day of the International Trade Administration meeting of the Environmental Technologies Trade Advisory Committee to discuss major issues affecting the competitiveness of the U.S. environmental technologies industry; Determine subcommittee structure; and Provide consultation on ETTAC leadership.

• Climate, other issues. Axios discussion on “Solving the World's Biggest Problems,” focusing on “global health equity, clean water access, and addressing climate change.”

• Bank failures. Bipartisan Policy Center discussion on “Recent Bank Failures and the Path Ahead.”

• Former U.K. prime minister remarks. Heritage Foundation virtual 2023 Margaret Thatcher Freedom Lecture with former U.K. Prime Minister Elizabeth Truss.

• Possible Russian war crimes. Washington Post Live virtual discussion on “investigating alleged Russian war crimes.”

• Ukrainian refugees in Europe. Business Council for International Understanding and the Tent Partnership for Refugees virtual discussion on “U.S. Businesses' Role in Integrating Ukrainian Refugees into Europe's Workforce.”

• Global finance. Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies discussion on “The Changing Financial Global Architecture.”

• China and Russia succession. Wilson Center's Kissinger Institute on China and the United States virtual book discussion on “Prestige, Manipulation, and Coercion: The Politics of Succession in the Soviet Union and China,” focusing on the implications for contemporary China.

• OMB cost-benefit guidelines. Brookings Institution discussion on the Office of Management and Budget's (OMB) updated benefit-cost guidelines.

• U.S./Taiwan relations. Wilson Center's Asia Program ninth annual Nancy Bernkopf Tucker Memorial Lecture on “U.S./East Asia Relations,” focusing on current challenges for Taiwan and U.S./Taiwan relations.

Thursday, April 13

• IMF/World Bank spring meeting. The 2023 Spring Meeting includes IMF Managing Director press briefing on the global policy agenda and a meeting of G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors.

• Energy transition. National Capital Area Chapter of the U.S. Association for Energy Economics 26th annual conference on “Opportunity in Crisis: Solving for Energy Security and a Low-Carbon Transition.”

• Farm Credit Administration meeting. Farm Credit Administration meeting and a Quarterly Report on Economic Conditions and Farm Credit System Condition and Performance.

• Finance and climate change. George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs discussion on “Governing Finance and Climate Change: The Role of Central Banks and Financial Supervisors in Addressing Climate-Related Financial Risks.”

• U.S./Ukraine partnership. U.S. Chamber of Commerce holds U.S./Ukraine Partnership Forum with remarks from Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, and participation from several Ukrainian and U.S. officials, including U.S. Agency for International Development Administrator Samantha Power, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland and others.

• Foreign investment in U.S. American Conference Institute Ninth National Conference on CFIUS (Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States), with Assistant Treasury Secretary for Investment Security Paul Rosen delivering remarks; runs through Friday.

• China defense technologies. U.S./China Economic and Security Review Commission meeting on “China's Pursuit of Defense Technologies: Implications for U.S. and Multilateral Export Control and Investment Screening Regimes.”

• Climate and education. Brookings Institution discussion on “Rethinking education for a climate-resilient future.”

• Ukraine reconstruction. Atlantic Council virtual discussion on “The Role of Digital Economy in Ukraine's Reconstruction.”

• EU Green Deal and U.S. IRA. CQ Roll Call and FiscalNote webinar on “Green Industrial Policy: A Global Perspective on the EU Green Deal and U.S. Inflation Reduction Act.”

• U.S. financial sanctions and the dollar. Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion on “Bucking the Buck: U.S. Financial Sanctions and the International Backlash against the Dollar.”

• Clean energy and transportation. Environmental and Energy Study Institute virtual discussion on “Investments in Clean Energy and Transportation Innovations in the Federal and Private Sectors.”

• ESG and retirement savings. Bipartisan Policy Center virtual discussion on “What's ESG (environmental, social, and governance) Got to Do With It? The Impact of DOL Rule on Retirement Savings.”

• Indonesia energy transition. Atlantic Council virtual discussion with Indonesian Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani on Indonesia's approach to the energy and digital transition.

• Western unity. Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies discussion with European Commissioner for Economy Paolo Gentiloni on “Western Unity, Global Fragmentation?”

Friday, April 14

• Federal Reserve. Fed Governor Christopher Waller to deliver remarks on the Economic Outlook in San Antonio, Texas.

• Farm bill listening session. House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson (R-Pa.) holds a “Farm Bill Listening Session” at the Cornell Cooperative Extension of Broome County —Agriculture Development Center in Binghamton, New York.

• IMF/World Bank spring meeting. 2023 Spring Meeting includes a press briefing with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

• Foreign investment in U.S. Final day of the American Conference Institute’s Ninth National Conference on CFIUS (Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States), including a panel discussion on “Recent, Notable CFIUS Transactions and What They Reveal About Future Deals and Getting Deals Done: Takeaways from Vonage, Fufeng and TikTok.”

• Western aid to Ukraine. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on “The Future of Western Aid to Ukraine.”

• Russian war in Ukraine. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion on “Russia, Ukraine, and the Struggle for Democracy.”

• International monetary reform. Peterson Institute for International Economics (virtual discussion on “International monetary reform: What to do 50 years after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system?”

• U.S./-South Korea relations. Brookings Institution discussion on “The U.S./South Korea Alliance at 70.”

• Social Security. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research virtual discussion on “The Future of Social Security.”

• Economic reports. Retail Sales | Import & Export Prices | Industrial Production | Business Inventories | Consumer Sentiment        

• Energy reports.  IEA monthly oil market report | ICE weekly Commitments of Traders report for Brent, gasoil | Baker-Hughes Rig Count | CFTC Commitments of Traders | Holiday: Greece, India, Myanmar, Thailand.

• USDA reports.  ERS: Feed Grains: Yearbook Tables  NASS: Peanut Prices | Turkey Hatchery  

Economic Reports for the Week

Focus will be on Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index report.

Monday, April 10

• Wholesale Trade: The second estimate for February wholesale inventories is a 0.2% build, unchanged from the first estimate.
• Federal Reserve: New York Fed President John Williams will participate in a moderated discussion organized by the Economics Review at New York University on Monday.
   

Tuesday, April 11

• National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for March. The consensus estimate is for a 89.9 reading, about one point lower than in February. The index remains well below historical averages as small-business owners struggle with labor shortages. In February, 47% of owners reported job openings that were hard to fill, a very high level.
• Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak at the Economic Club of Chicago.
• Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will participate in a town hall at Montana State University.
• Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speaks on the economic outlook at a Wharton Initiative on Financial Policy and Regulation event.
• Earnings: Albertsons and CarMax report quarterly results.
   

Wednesday, April 12

• MBA Mortgage Applications
• Federal Open Market Committee releases the minutes from its late-March monetary-policy meeting.
• Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the consumer price index (CPI) for March. Expectations are for the CPI to be up 5.2%, year over year, after increasing 6% in February. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen edging up to 5.6%, from 5.5%. The FOMC has stressed that it is particularly important to see moderation in core services inflation, excluding housing, which rose 6.1% in February.
• Treasury Statement: Forecasters see a $253.0 billion deficit in March that would compare with a $192.7 billion deficit in March a year-ago and a deficit in February this year of $262.4 billion. March is the sixth month of the government's fiscal year.
• Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will deliver opening remarks at the Investing in Rural America 2023 conference.
• ConocoPhillips holds its 2023 analyst and investor meeting.
• Bank of Canada announces its monetary-policy decision. The central bank is expected to keep short-term interest rates unchanged at 4.5%. The BOC has raised rates by 4.25 percentage points since last March, and traders are now betting that the terminal, or peak, rate for this hiking cycle is already in.
   

Thursday, April 13

• Jobless claims for the April 8 week are expected to come in at 233,000 versus 228,000 in the prior week which was the first week reflecting a benchmark revision.
• BLS releases the producer price index (PPI) for March. Economists forecast that the PPI will increase 3.1% from its level a year earlier, while the core PPI will be up by 4.3%. This compares with gains of 4.6% and 4.4%, respectively, in February. A 3.1% rise would be the lowest since February 2021.
• Fed Balance Sheet
• Money Supply  
• Delta Air Lines and Fastenal hold conference calls to discuss their earnings.
   

Friday, April 14

• Census Bureau reports retail sales data for March. The consensus call is for consumer spending to decline 0.3%, month over month, to $696 billion. Excluding autos, retail sales are expected to fall 0.2%, compared with a 0.1% decrease in February.
• University of Michigan releases its consumer sentiment index for April. Economists forecast a 64 reading, two points more than in March, but a historically low figure. In March, consumers’ expectations of the year-ahead inflation was 3.6%, the lowest level since April 2021.
• Import & Export Prices: Import prices have been edging lower month after month and are expected to fall another 0.2% in March. Export prices are also expected to fall 0.2% versus the prior month's 0.2% increase.
• Industrial production is expected to rise 0.3% in March after February's no change. Manufacturing output is seen down 0.1% after edging 0.1% higher in February
• Business inventories in February are expected to rise 0.3% following a 0.1% draw in January.
• First-quarter earnings season begins in earnest with Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo all reporting results before the market opens. Banks’ balance sheets and bond portfolios will go under the microscope. BlackRock, PNC Financial Services Group, and UnitedHealth Group announce quarterly results.
• Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller will discuss his outlook on the economy at the Graybar National Training Conference in San Antonio
   

Key USDA & international Ag & Energy Reports and Events 

Tuesday brings USDA’s latest WASDE report, but traders’ focus is on U.S. and South American weather and crop prospects in both regions.

On the energy front, the U.S. Energy Information Administration releases its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday, while OPEC and the IEA issue their monthly oil market reports later in the week.

Monday, April 10

     Ag reports and events:

• Export Inspections
• Crop Progress
• Crop Production Historical Track Records
• Malaysia’s April 1-10 palm oil export data
• Brazil’s Unica to release cane crush, sugar production data (tentative)
• Holiday: Easter Monday holiday in several countries, including the U.K., Australia, France, Germany and Hong Kong
   

Tuesday, April 11

     Ag reports and events:

• Crop Production
• Cotton: World Markets and Trade
• Grains: World Markets and Trade
• Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade
• World Agricultural Production
• Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade
• China’s agriculture ministry (CASDE) releases monthly supply and demand report
   

     Energy reports and events:

• API weekly U.S. oil inventory report
• Energy Information Administration publishes its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook, or STEO
   

Wednesday, April 12

     Ag reports and events:

• Broiler Hatchery
• Feed Grains Database
• Meat Price Spreads
• Dairy Monthly Tables
• Season Average Price Forecasts
• Wheat Data
• France agriculture ministry’s 2023 planting estimates
   

     Energy reports and events:

• EIA weekly U.S. oil inventory report
• U.S. weekly ethanol inventories
• Genscape weekly crude inventory report for Europe’s ARA region
• Colombia global energy summit (link); speakers include TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol
   

Thursday, April 13

     Ag reports and events:

• Weekly Export Sales
• Cotton and Wool Outlook
• Oil Crops Outlook
• Feed Outlook
• Rice Outlook
• Wheat Outlook
• China’s first batch of March trade data, including soybean, edible oil, rubber and meat & offal imports
• Brazil’s Conab publishes production, area and yield data for corn and soybeans
• FranceAgriMer monthly grains balance sheet
• Port of Rouen data on French grain exports
• Holiday: Thailand
   

     Energy reports and events:

• EIA natural gas storage change
• OPEC publishes monthly oil market report (link)
• Insights Global weekly oil product inventories in Europe’s ARA region
   

Friday, April 14

     Ag reports and events:

• CFTC Commitments of Traders report
• Peanut Prices
• Feed Grains: Yearbook Tables
• Turkey Hatchery
• FranceAgriMer’s weekly crop condition report
• Holiday: India, Thailand
   

     Energy reports and events:

• Baker Hughes weekly U.S. oil/gas rig counts

WASDE | Crop Production | USDA weekly reports | Crop Progress | Food prices | Farm income | Export Sales weekly | ERP dashboard | California phase-out of gas-powered vehicles | RFS | IRA: Biofuels | IRA: Ag | Student loan forgiveness | Russia/Ukraine war, lessons learned | Russia/Ukraine war timeline | Election predictions: Split-ticket | Congress to-do list | SCOTUS on WOTUS  | SCOTUS on Prop 12 | New farm bill primer | China outlook | Omnibus spending package | Gov’t payments to farmers by program | Farmer working capital | USDA ag outlook forum |