USDA Raises 2022 Food Inflation Forecasts for Fourth Consecutive Month
Highest food price rises since 1980 (grocery stores) and 1981 (all food and restaurants)
USDA raised its estimated range of 6.5%-7.5% y/y increase from a range of 5%-6%, according to the May Food Price Outlook report, the highest forecast for all food prices and restaurant prices since 1981, and the highest grocery store price boosts since 1980.
Link to USDA report.
The biggest increase is eggs for the second month in a row, hiked to a 19.5%-20.5% range from a 6%-7% range. Just two months ago, USDA had egg inflation at 2.5%-3.5% y/y.
Other categories with big increases: pork, poultry, fats and oils.
USDA only kept their price increases steady from April for beef and veal (6% to 7%), fresh vegetables (4% to 5%), processed fruits and vegetables (5.5% to 6.5%) and sugar and sweets (5.5% to 6.5%).
Details:
- Consumer price index (CPI) for all food: a rise of 6.5% to 7.5% in 2022 vs 2021, up from 5% to 6% in April and using the midpoint of USDA’s range biggest rise in food prices since they rose 7.8% in 1981.
- Food away from home (restaurant) prices: up 6% to 7% in 2022, from April forecast of up 5.5% to 6.5%. That is the biggest rise in restaurant prices since 1981 when they increased 9%.
- Food at home (grocery store) prices: up 7% to 8%, versus April outlook of a rise of 5% to 6%. That would be the highest grocery store price rise since 1980 when prices rose 8.1% — prices rose 7.2% in 1981.
Source of table: Bloomberg
