Policy Updates: China skips U.S. soybeans in September for the first time since 2018

China skips U.S. soybeans in September for first time since 2018 (Reuters): China imported zero soybeans from the United States in September, marking the first time since November 2018 that no U.S. shipments arrived. This comes amid elevated tariffs as part of ongoing trade tensions between Beijing and Washington, and a depletion of “old-crop” U.S. supplies.

In contrast, China’s soybean imports surged overall — September’s total reached 12.87 million metric tons, its second-highest ever, led by a 29.9% year-on-year jump to 10.96 million tons from Brazil, which accounted for 85.2% of the total. Imports from Argentina also rose sharply (91.5%) to 1.17 million tons (9% of the total).

While Chinese crushers are bypassing U.S. beans for now, U.S. farmers shipped to China earlier in the year — 16.8 million tons year-to-date (up 15.5% from a year ago) before the U.S. autumn-harvest window closed. Analysts warn that unless trade negotiations produce a deal, China could face a supply gap between February and April next year, before Brazil’s new crops come in — especially since it’s uncertain how much U.S. old-crop stock remains. Trade talks between the U.S. and China appear to be seeing renewed momentum, though there continues to be considerable uncertainty.