House GOP faces internal revolt as leadership rushes reconciliation bill to a vote... House Republican leaders are scrambling to pass their multi-trillion-dollar reconciliation bill as soon as today – though the vote could slip until Thursday – racing against fierce opposition from both the hard-right and moderate wings of their conference.
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.), and Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) are pressing ahead on a compressed timeline, but doubts are widespread about their ability to even clear a procedural rule for floor debate.
Leadership is leaning on President Donald Trump’s influence to rally wavering members, but patience is running thin after repeated concessions failed to sway the bill’s critics. House GOP leadership can lose up to three Republican votes and still pass a reconciliation measure, assuming all Democrats vote against it and all members are present.
The House started meeting at 9 a.m. ET to debate and vote on the tax and spending bill, but the timeline for the vote is murky.
CBO updates deficit impact of Senate-passed reconciliation package... The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), in conjunction with the Joint Committee on Taxation, has issued a preliminary update on the fiscal impact of the Senate-approved budget reconciliation package. According to the latest CBO estimates, the legislation is projected to raise the federal deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next decade compared to the January baseline. Amendments adopted during Senate floor consideration—relative to the original version introduced on June 27—would:
- Increase outlays (government spending) by approximately $90 billion
- Reduce revenues by about $20 billion
- Result in a net deficit increase of roughly $110 billion
These changes are layered on top of the package’s overall projected deficit impact, reflecting the cumulative effect of Senate policy modifications and new spending measures.
CBO is expected to release a more detailed breakdown of the bill’s components and their respective budgetary effects in the coming weeks.
U.S. trade partners scramble as tariff deadline nears... With the July 9 extension deadline for U.S. tariffs rapidly approaching, major American trading partners are facing heightened uncertainty over their economic prospects. Despite months of negotiations, dozens of country-specific trade deals remain unresolved, including high-stakes talks with the “key 18” nations highlighted by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
Following the sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs announced on April 2, the White House has largely focused on a country-by-country negotiation approach. While there is some potential for bilateral deals to be bundled into broader regional pacts, the administration’s tactics have been unpredictable, with a premium placed on speed and flexibility.
So far, only a limited agreement with the United Kingdom has been finalized. Negotiations with other major economies — including China, Japan, India and the European Union — are ongoing, each complicated by unique demands and domestic constraints. President Trump and his officials have repeatedly warned that failure to reach deals by July 9 could trigger the snapback of tariffs to the steep levels set on April 2 — some reaching as high as 50%. Such a scenario risks significant economic and market disruption.
Bessent has suggested some flexibility on the deadline, but only President Trump can grant extensions. Countries seen as stalling may face the full brunt of tariff hikes.
Trade experts and business leaders are urging caution, emphasizing the unprecedented complexity of the negotiation process. The administration’s rapid announcements and reversals have fueled a volatile business environment, with financial markets reacting sharply to tariff-related news.
Negotiating dozens of bilateral deals in parallel is straining U.S. government resources and expertise, increasing the risk of rushed or inconsistent agreements. Some foreign governments, especially India and Japan, are wary of domestic backlash if perceived as conceding too much to U.S. demands, complicating negotiations.
Companies are delaying investments and expansion plans until tariff rates and trade rules are clarified.
Outlook: Despite the impending deadline, U.S. officials have recently downplayed its rigidity. Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick have both indicated that negotiations may extend into September, with the administration focusing on the “key 18” and potentially leaving smaller partners exposed to higher tariffs by default. Even if agreements are reached, a baseline 10% tariff is expected to persist for most imports, with only substantial concessions potentially lowering rates further for select nations. Economists warn that if the bulk of tariffs are reimposed, the risk of a major supply shock — with attendant inflation, job losses, and strained global alliances — remains significant.
Bottom line: As July 9 draws near, unpredictability remains the defining feature of U.S. trade policy, leaving allies and businesses bracing for last-minute decisions and sustained market turbulence.
EU trade commissioner in Washington to counter U.S. tariff threat... European Union Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič is in Washington this week with a critical mission: secure a breakthrough to prevent the U.S. from imposing sweeping new tariffs — potentially up to 50% — on nearly all EU exports before President Donald Trump’s July 9 deadline.
EU’s negotiation strategy:
- Immediate tariff relief sought: The EU is demanding upfront relief for key sectors such as automobiles, steel, and aluminum. Automobiles remain a “red line” for Brussels, which is pushing back against U.S. efforts to bolster domestic manufacturing at Europe’s expense.
- Willingness to compromise: EU diplomats indicate Brussels is open to accepting a 10% baseline tariff on goods if Washington agrees to reduce or eliminate tariffs for the most sensitive sectors. This marks a shift from the EU’s earlier stance.
- Political understanding, not a full deal: With time running short, negotiators are focusing on reaching a headline “political understanding” to pave the way for future, more detailed sector-by-sector trade talks, rather than a comprehensive agreement now.
- Threat of EU retaliation: If the U.S. does not provide immediate tariff relief, the EU is preparing new countermeasures that could target up to $102 billion (€95 billion) in U.S. products, besides a previously suspended $22.6 billion (€21 billion) list.
- Diverging member state views: While Germany and Italy appear open to a 10% tariff compromise, France and Ireland remain skeptical and are insisting on strict reciprocity from the U.S.
President Trump has delayed the new tariff hikes to allow for negotiations but warns that countries failing to reach an agreement will face the full increase. The EU’s negotiating team is under mounting pressure to secure at least a provisional deal, as failure could trigger a major escalation in transatlantic trade tensions.
Trump administration moves to rescind Biden-era H-2A worker protections... The Trump administration has published a proposed rule to rescind a Biden-era regulation that expanded protections for temporary foreign agricultural workers under the H-2A visa program. The administration argues the previous rule imposed “unnecessary, burdensome, and costly requirements on employers,” including substantial new obligations related to the material terms and conditions offered to H-2A workers — obligations that are not typically required for other U.S. workers.
Trump officials had already announced they would stop enforcing the contested provisions and now, with the proposed rule’s publication, have formally initiated the process to eliminate the regulation. The administration’s justification also references several District Court rulings that found the Biden-era rule exceeded the Department of Labor’s statutory authority.
Public comments on the proposed rescission are due by Sept. 2.
CEA Alliance hires Torrey Advisory Group to push for H-2A visa expansion... The Controlled Environment Agriculture Alliance (CEA Alliance), representing vertical farms and greenhouse producers, has enlisted the Torrey Advisory Group, a prominent lobbying firm specializing in food and agriculture policy, to lobby for expanding the H-2A visa program in Congress. This move comes amid growing labor shortages in the indoor agriculture industry, where a stable workforce is critical for year-round fruit and vegetable production in controlled settings.
The H-2A program, designed to help U.S. agricultural employers hire temporary foreign workers when local labor is unavailable, is seen as complex and costly. Participation has grown in recent years as domestic labor shortages persist. Employers must prove the lack of U.S. workers, pay prevailing wages, cover transportation, and provide free housing for H-2A workers.
CEA Alliance’s engagement with Torrey Advisory Group coincides with ongoing congressional effortsto reform the H-2A program. A bipartisan working group in the House Ag Committee is considering ways to streamline the application process, expand eligibility, and address wage issues, though final immigration policy decisions rest with the Judiciary Committee.