FOMC Meeting Results on Wednesday, with Updated Projections and Powell Presser

( )

Senate bipartisan agreement on gun control | Farm bill field hearing in Arkansas


Washington Focus

Both chambers are in this week with the major congressional issue being a Senate compromise on gun control legislation that is not as aggressive as a House-passed version.

The House today is expected to approve the Senate-passed Ocean Shipping Reform Act, which includes language for the Federal Maritime Commission to take steps to clear port bottlenecks and reduce shipping rates. The bill isn’t as strong as a previous version passed by the House.

     President Joe Biden, speaking at the Port of Los Angeles on Friday, said the foreign-owned ocean carriers that control U.S./Asia routes have raised rates by as much as 1,000% in one year.

     American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall said he told Biden that farmers have “lost out on more than $25 billion in agricultural exports over the past six months due to ocean shipping constraints. That’s unacceptable.”

Farm bill — non-SNAP nutrition programs. House Agriculture Committee holds a hearing Tuesday on “A 2022 Review of the Farm Bill: Stakeholder Perspectives on Non-SNAP USDA Nutrition Programs.”

Ag and biofuels. The House Rules Committee meets this afternoon to prepare the Lower Food and Fuel Costs Act for floor debate. The package includes seven bills related to agriculture and biofuels, including:

     • Creating a special investigator’s office in USDA’s Packers and Stockyards Division.
     • Allowing year-round sales of E15

     • Funding for additional biofuel infrastructure
     • Increasing payments under the Environmental Quality Incentives Program for nutrient management practices
     • Increasing funding for precision agriculture
     • Establishing a USDA-run Agricultural and Food System Supply Chain Resilience and Crisis Response Task Force

     • Authorizing loan guarantees for meat and poultry processing expansion

WOTUS roundtable today takes another look at the arid Southwest. The confab was organized by Amigos Bravos, a New Mexico environmental group. Link

Agriculture and climate. The Business Council for International Understanding on Tuesday holds a virtual discussion on the First Movers Coalition, the newest announcements from Davos after the World Economic Forum and the latest with the Agriculture Innovation Mission for Climate.

Extreme drought in western U. S. is a topic on Tuesday before the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee hearing

A Food and Drug Administration panel on Wednesday reviews data and will recommend whether Pfizer and Moderna ’s Covid-19 vaccines for children under 5 should receive authorization.

Republican Congress preview. The Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) on Monday holds a virtual discussion on "Previewing a Potential Republican Congress."

Energy, other nominations. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee holds a markup Tuesday to vote on the nominations of David Applegate to be director of the U.S. Geological Survey; Carmen Cantor to be assistant Interior secretary for insular and international affairs; and Evelyn Wang to be director of the Energy Department's Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy.

Labor Department policies and priorities. House Education and Labor Committee holds a hearing Tuesday on "Examining the Policies and Priorities of the U.S. Department of Labor." Labor Secretary Marty Walsh testifies.

Climate research and agriculture. House Agriculture Committee holds a hearing Wednesday on "The Role of Climate Research in Supporting Agricultural Resiliency."

U.S. economy and rural communities is the topic Wednesday by the Brookings Institution virtual discussion on "Reshaping the Economic Narrative Around America's Rural Communities."

FY 2023 budget markup: USDA, FDA and related agencies. House Ag Appropriations Subcommittee markup Wednesday of the FY 2023 appropriations bill for the agencies under its jurisdiction.

FY 2023 budget: Labor. Senate Appropriations Labor, Health and Human Services, Education and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing Wednesday on the FY 2023 budget for the Labor Department. Labor Secretary Marty Walsh testifies.

Infant formula situation. Senate Judiciary Competition Policy, Antitrust, and Consumer Rights Subcommittee hearing Wednesday on "Baby Formula and Beyond: The Impact of Consolidation on Families and Consumers."

International supply chain resiliency. Senate Finance International Trade, Customs, and Global Competitiveness Subcommittee hearing Wednesday on "Supply Chain Resiliency: Alleviating Backlogs and Strengthening Long-Term Security."

Future of the WTO. The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual discussion Wednesday on "Will the WTO survive amid Russia's war and other stresses on global trade?"

Farm policy for the 21st Century. The Environmental and Energy Study Institute on Thursday holds a virtual discussion on "Pathways to Regenerative Agriculture: Farm Policy for the 21st Century."

Farm Bill field hearing in Arkansas. The Senate Ag Committee on Friday holds a field hearing in Jonesboro, Arkansas on "2023 Farm Bill: Perspectives from the Natural State."

Trade policy. The Bipartisan Policy Center on Friday holds a virtual discussion on "Trade Policy."

Friday is the deadline for filing comments with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on its controversial proposed rule that would require publicly traded companies to track and disclose greenhouse gas emissions in their supply chains. Some 32 Republican senators urged the SEC to withdraw the proposal, saying in a letter that the rule “would place a major reporting burden on the many agricultural producers that provide raw products to the value-chain.”


Economic Reports and Events for the Week

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee concludes its two-day session. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points. Also on tap: Updated Fed projections and a presser by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

Tuesday, June 14

  • NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
  • PPI-FD: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports the producer price index for May. Consensus estimate is for a 10.8% year-over-year jump, after an 11% spike in April. The core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 8.7%, compared with an 8.8% gain previously.
  • FOMC meeting begins 
  • New York Times hosts an investor day at its headquarters in New York.
  • Morgan Stanley kicks off a two-day U.S. Financials, Payments & CRE conference. Participants include Ally Financial, Comerica, and Synchrony.

Wednesday, June 15

  • MBA Mortgage Applications
  • Retail Sales: Census Bureau reports retail sales data for May. Expectations are for a 0.15% seasonally adjusted monthly increase, after a 0.9% rise in April. Excluding autos, retail sales are seen rising 0.7% compared with a 0.6% rise in April.
  • Empire State Manufacturing Survey
  • Housing Market Index: National Association of Home Builders releases the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for June. Economists are looking for a 68 reading, compared with a reading of 69 in May.
  • Import & Export Prices: BLS releases its Export Price index, which is believed to have risen 0.8% in May from a 0.6% in April. Import prices are expected to rise 1.1% in May compared with being flat in April.
  • Business Inventories
  • Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
  • FOMC Meeting Conclusion | Fed Projections | Powell Presser

Thursday, June 16

  • Jobless Claims
  • Housing Starts: Census Bureau releases new residential construction data for May. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.720 million housing starts, compared with 1.724 housing starts in April.
  • Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing
  • Fed Balance Sheet
  • Money Supply  

Friday, June 17

  • Industrial Production
  • Leading Indicators: Conference Board releases its Leading Economic Index for May. Economists forecast a 0.35% monthly decrease, following a 0.3% drop in April.  
  • Roles of the U.S. dollar. Final day of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York "Inaugural Conference on the International Roles of the U.S. Dollar," including opening remarks from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

Key USDA & international Ag & Energy Reports and Events 

With last Friday’s relatively tame WASDE report, the focus now shifts to new-crop U.S. prospects and weather forecasts, along with continued daily reports on the Russia/Ukraine war.

Monday, June 13

     Ag reports and events:

  • Export Inspections
  • Crop Progress
  • Season-Average Price Forecasts
  • Feed Grains Database
  • Wheat Data
  • Dairy Data

Tuesday, June 14

     Ag reports and events:

  • Cotton & Wool Outlook
  • Oil Crops Outlook
  • Feed Outlook
  • Wheat Outlook
  • Rice Outlook
  • Fresh Apples, Grapes, and Pears: World Markets and Trade

     Energy reports and events:

  • API weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report

Wednesday, June 15

     Ag reports and events:

  • Broiler Hatchery
  • Turkey Hatchery
  • Feed Grains: Yearbook Tables

     Energy reports and events:

  • EIA weekly U.S. oil inventory report
  • U.S. weekly ethanol inventories
  • IEA monthly Oil Market Report
  • Genscape weekly crude inventory report for Europe’s ARA region
  • China output data

Thursday, June 16

     Ag reports and events:

  • Weekly Export Sales
  • Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook
  • Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook

     Energy reports and events:

  • EIA natural gas storage change
  • Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile weekly data

Friday, June 17

     Ag reports and events:

  • CFTC Commitments of Traders report
  • Peanut Prices
  • Potato Stocks
  • Food Expenditure Series

     Energy reports and events:

  • Baker Hughes weekly U.S. oil/gas rig counts




Latest News

Friday Wrap Up | September 23, 2022

Davis Michaelsen and Editor Brian Grete discuss this week's market action...

After the Bell | September 23, 2022

Corn, soybean futures plunge to two-week lows on surging dollar, escalating recession concerns; wheat also down sharply.

Cattle on Feed Report mostly neutral

Both placements and marketings were near the top end of pre-report estimates.

Dollar Continues Bull Run | September 23, 2022

Prolonged drought plagues China, Russia opens polls in Ukraine and the British pound taps long-time low...