Fed Decision Day: Take a Hike, but Then What?

British intelligence: ‘Russia almost certainly perceives anti-ship missiles as a key threat’

FOMC decision day and presser. Most analysts expect Chair Jerome Powell to announce an interest rate hike of 75 basis points this afternoon, equivalent to its rate increase from last month. Investors will also be paying close attention to Powell’s comments on the future path of interest rates. Investors will be watching for any dissent and what the Fed thinks about signs of a slowing economy. “Powell will very likely get asked about the chance of recession,” said Michael Feroli, JPMorgan’s chief economist. “We suspect he will say it’s a risk but not a foregone conclusion.” More below.

Yellen to hold news conference on the economy July 28. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will hold a news conference on the economy Thursday at 1:30 pm ET, after the GDP report is released,

Western governments are digging in for a protracted economic confrontation with Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, as Moscow fights back against international sanctions by disrupting energy and food supplies, the Wall Street Journal reports.

Ukraine grain shipments should move “soon” according to a Turkish official but in the Russia/Ukraine section we note several hurdles that could impact that assessment.

The Senate’s all-member classified briefing on Ukraine, scheduled for 3:45 p.m. ET today, has been canceled. Senators were supposed to hear from the Pentagon, USAID, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Joint Chiefs of Staff. There apparently was a scheduling conflict with one of the briefers and it will be rescheduled.

China blasts report of spying on the Fed as ‘political lie.’  China lashed out at a Republican lawmaker who accused it of trying to get secret information from the Federal Reserve, saying the claim was a “political lie,” and some politicians in the U.S. have “persecution mania.”

The U.S. military is making plans in the Indo-Pacific in case Nancy Pelosi travels to Taiwan, the Associated Press reports.

Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping will speak Thursday, according to a U.S. official first cited by Bloomberg. Besides current friction over a possible visit to Taiwan by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the agenda could include discussion of North Korea’s nuclear program, differences between Beijing and Washington over Russia’s war in Ukraine, efforts by the Biden administration to revive the Iran nuclear deal and the status of the U.S. administration’s review of tough tariffs imposed on China by the Trump administration.

On the policy front, payments will begin this week for hog producers via SMHPP. USDA will issue around $62.8 million to eligible hog producers via the Spot Market Hog Pandemic Program (SMHPP) starting this week. SMHPP assists eligible producers who sold hogs through a spot market sale from April 16, 2020, through Sept. 1, 2020.

As the Senate is set today to pass the $52 billion domestic semiconductor boosting legislation, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said he would vote no due to concerns on mandatory spending. He added, however, that he and other congressional Republican leaders would not be pushing their members to vote against the measure

New studies conclude that animals sold at a seafood market in Wuhan, China, are most likely what started the Covid-19 pandemic.

The United States is now the leading country for monkeypox cases as infections spiked 33% in three days.

President Biden is again considering cutting $10,000 in student loan debt, as well as extending a Covid-era pause in student loan debt repayment, Bloomberg reported.

Equities today: Major global stock markets and Wall Street futures advanced Wednesday as traders prepared for a possible sharp interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve to cool surging inflation. London and Frankfurt opened higher. Tokyo and Sydney gained while Shanghai declined. In Asia, Japan +0.22%. Hong Kong -1.13%. China -0.05%. India +0.76%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.50%. Paris +0.41%. Frankfurt +0.08%. The slew of U.S. companies reporting earnings include Meta, ADP, Boston Scientific, Kraft Heinz, Boeing, T-Mobile, Ford and many others. About 70% of the 150-plus S&P 500 companies that have announced earnings so far have beaten Wall Street’s expectations, according to FactSet.

     U.S. equities yesterday: All three major indices registered losses Tuesday after trading in negative territory the entire session. The Dow ended down 228.50 points, 0.71%, at 31,761.54. The Nasdaq declined 220.09 points, 1.87%, at 11,562.57. The S&P 500 was down 45.79 points, 1.15%, at 3,921.05.

Agriculture markets yesterday:

• Corn: December corn futures rose 17 cents to $6.00 3/4, the contract’s highest closing price since $6.10 3/4 on July 18.
• Soy complex: November soybeans rallied 37 3/4 cents to $13.83 3/4, the contract’s highest closing price since July 11. August soymeal surged $24.90 to $472.40, a lifetime-high close for the contract. August soyoil rose 41 points to 60.42 cents.
• Wheat: September SRW wheat surged 33 3/4 cents to $8.03 3/4. September HRW futures jumped 37 1/4 cents to $8.77. September spring wheat soared 44 3/4 cents to $9.28 3/4.
• Cotton: December cotton rose 342 points to 94.48 cents per pound, a two-week high.
• Cattle: August live cattle fell 87.5 cents to $136.875. August feeder cattle tumbled $1.875 to $177.425.
• Hogs: August Lean hogs fell 25 cents to $116.975. The CME lean hog index rose 91 cents to $119.13 (as of July 22), the highest level since June 2021, and is expected to gain another 35 cents today.
   

Ag markets today: Grain and soybean futures posted two-sided trade overnight but are higher and trading near session highs this morning. As of 7:30 a.m. ET, corn futures were trading 3 to 4 cents higher, soybeans were 14 to 28 cents higher and wheat futures were 6 to 10 cents higher. Front-month U.S. crude oil futures were around $1 higher and the U.S. dollar index was about 350 points lower this morning.

Technical viewpoints from Jim Wyckoff:

On tap today:

     • U.S. durable-goods orders for June, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, are expected to fall 0.4% from the prior month.
     • U.S. advance economic indicators for June are out at 8:30 a.m. ET.
     • U.S. pending home sales for June, due at 10 a.m. ET, are expected to fall 1% from the prior month.
     • Federal Reserve releases a policy statement at 2 p.m. ET and Chairman Jerome Powell holds a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.

FOMC decision day: The U.S. Federal Reserve is set to raise interest rates by 0.75% for the second consecutive month as it tries to fight inflation. he Federal Open Market Committee will make an announcement at 2 p.m. ET, followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Jay Powell, whose comments could give clues about the path of interest rates in the months ahead. Investors will be watching closely for any hint of what is coming at the September meeting and beyond. Markets are currently expecting the central bank to extend its rate-rise campaign this year but reverse course in 2023.

     Debates over the size of the rate hike miss the point, said RSM Chief U.S. economist Joseph Brusuelas. "The far more important issue is just how far into restrictive terrain central bankers should lift the policy rate, and at what point they will choose to take the central bank's foot off the monetary brakes and allow the economy space to further absorb the rate shock the Fed has imposed on the economy to restore price stability," he wrote.

     "Another three-quarter percentage point rate hike will take the benchmark fed funds rate back to where it was in July 2019, at the peak of the last cycle," Bankrate Chief Financial Analyst Greg McBride said. "But with inflation running north of 9%, we're not at the finish line and there will be more interest rate increases to come in the months ahead." Morgan Stanley economists led by Ellen Zentner expect the fed funds rate to peak at 3.625% in December 2022, with the Fed taking the first steps toward normalizing the rate by the end of 2023.

Market perspectives:

     • Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was weaker ahead of U.S. market action as traders await the Fed meeting conclusion. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has risen to trade around 2.81%. U.S. crude was trading around $96 per barrel with Brent around $100.50 per barrel. Gold and silver futures are both slightly higher, with gold around $1,718 per troy ounce and silver around $18.68 per troy ounce.

     • U.S. natural-gas futures briefly surpassed a 14-year high Tuesday, helped by a heat wave and European energy crunch. Prices surged 12% in early morning trading to $9.752 per million British thermal units, the highest intraday price since July 2008, when it traded as high as $9.886.

     • How much credit should the Biden White House get for falling gas prices? A new analysis (link) from Treasury economists estimates the release of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, combined with similar moves by other countries, lowered the price of gas by between 17 and 42 cents per gallon, with one alternate approach suggesting it was 38 cents per gallon.

     • $5.268 is the average price per gallon for diesel fuel across the U.S. in the past week, down 16.4 cents from the week before in the steepest weekly decline since 2008, according to the Energy Information Administration.    

     • Union Pacific CEO Lance Fritz says freight railroads and unionized workers remain “pretty far apart” over wages in their contract negotiations. Meanwhile, both BNSF Railway and Union Pacific are now metering container volume out of the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.

     • Day 1 HRS wheat tour results: Scouts on Day 1 of the Wheat Quality Council’s annual spring wheat tour found an average HRS yield of 48.9 bu. per acre on routes through southern and eastern areas of North Dakota, up sharply from the five-year average of 39.0 bu. per acre on similar routes. The crop has benefited from favorable weather, the North Dakota Wheat Commission said, although high humidity has raised risk of crop diseases and grasshoppers threaten yields in spots. Scouts will sample fields in northern North Dakota today.

     • Weaker commodity prices will take longer to ease food inflation in the U.S. than in the developing world, said Seth Meyer, chief economist at USDA, said on Tuesday, according to Reuters. Some of the world's poorest nations were hardest hit by a spike in corn and wheat prices after Russia's invasion of major grains producer Ukraine in late February, due to their reliance on imports and the large percentage of income consumers spend on food. Meyer said developing countries in North Africa and elsewhere could be the first to see some relief in prices at grocery stores, as commodity crops have fallen to pre-war levels and the North American crops develop. "It is a more immediate effect. Lower commodity prices reduce the import bill of certain importing countries and can moderate some of what we've seen in relation to food price inflation," Meyer said at an agriculture conference in Sao Paulo. World food prices fell for a third consecutive month in June but remained close to record high levels set in March. Meyer said in the United States there would be a bigger lag because food goes through more processing and complex supply chains. "Wheat, corn or rice make up a pretty small share of the food dollars that consumers spend," Meyer said. "The more processed a product you have, the longer the lag in the transmission into food price inflation and the more sticky those output prices are for more processed commodities."

     • Ag trade: Taiwan tendered to buy 50,910 MT of U.S. milling wheat. Jordan tendered to buy 120,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat.

     • NWS weather: Moderate Risks of Excessive Rainfall are in place with areas of flash flooding, potentially significant, across the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians through the end of the week... ...Monsoonal moisture to cause daily rounds of excessive rainfall and flash flooding across portions of the Southwest and southern/central High Plains with Slight to Moderate Risks of excessive rainfall... ...Heat wave to continue in the Pacific Northwest while staying consistently hotter than normal along the Gulf Coast and into the Southeast.

Items in Pro Farmer's First Thing Today include:

     • Buyer interest building this morning
     • First Ukraine grain exports still planned for this week, but uncertainty is high
     • Day 1 HRS wheat tour results
     • Fed interest rate decision coming this afternoon
     • Indonesia tests higher biodiesel blends
     • Railroads, unions ‘pretty far apart’ on negotiations
     • Steady/weaker cash cattle trade expected
     • August hogs’ discount to cash index widens

— Summary: Ukraine attacked the Russian-occupied city of Kherson, in southern Ukraine, as part of a renewed offensive to retake the city, which fell to Russia in March. Using American-supplied rockets known as HIMARS, Ukraine heavily shelled a bridge used by Russians as a key supply route. In response, Russian authorities said the bridge had been closed to civilians but remained standing.

• Ukraine says Gazprom increased gas pipeline pressure without giving notice. Reuters reports (link) Gazprom has “sharply increased pressure in the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline that delivers Russian gas to Europe without prior notice, the Ukrainian state pipeline operator company said on Tuesday.” The company said that “such pressure spikes could lead to emergencies including pipeline ruptures, and pipeline operators are obliged to inform each other about them in advance.” It said, “Failing to inform the operator in a timely manner carries potential risks to the normal operation of the pipeline.”
• Missiles strike Odesa and Mykolaiv despite agreements for grain shipments to resume. Russia targeted Ukraine’s southern Black Sea regions of Odesa and Mykolaiv with airstrikes Tuesday, hitting private buildings and port infrastructure with missiles fired from long-range bomber aircraft, the Ukrainian military said. The British ministry said Russia sees Ukraine’s use of anti-ship missiles as “a key threat” limiting its Black Sea fleet. “This has significantly undermined the overall invasion plan, as Russia cannot realistically attempt an amphibious assault to seize Odesa,” the ministry said. “Russia will continue to prioritize efforts to degrade and destroy Ukraine’s anti-ship capability.”
  
  "Russia almost certainly perceives anti-ship missiles as a key threat, which is limiting the effectiveness of their Black Sea Fleet," said the U.K. Defense Ministry in its update Tuesday morning. This alleged handicap of the Kremlin's Black Sea Fleet "has significantly undermined the overall invasion plan, as Russia cannot realistically attempt an amphibious assault to seize Odesa," according to the Brits. In the days ahead, outsiders should expect Russia to put much more effort into destroying Ukraine's anti-ship capability, the British say. And this Russian effort will likely be a messy, destructive, and violent one since "Russia's targeting processes are highly likely routinely undermined by dated intelligence, poor planning, and a top-down approach to operations," the British military says.
• First Ukraine grain exports still planned for this week, but uncertainty is high. A Turkish official said all the details had been worked out for resuming Ukrainian grain exports via Black Sea ports, including a safe route for ships that will not require the clearing of sea mines. He said, “It will not take more than a few days. It looks like the first grains will be loaded this week and its export from Ukraine will take place.” But Russian attacks on the port of Odesa Saturday and again Tuesday, along with a round of air strikes at the port of Mykolaiv yesterday have raised questions about whether Russia will allow active Ukrainian grain exports. Plus, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko warned the deal to restart Ukrainian grain exports on the Black Sea could collapse if obstacles to Russia’s agricultural exports are not promptly removed, Interfax news reported. Despite the warning, Rudenko said he was still hopeful the deal would hold.
• The paper agreement brokered by Turkey and the U.N. is running up against the reality of how difficult and risky the pact will be to carry out. “We have to work very hard to now understand the detail of how this is going to work practically,” said Guy Platten, secretary-general of the International Chamber of Shipping, which says it represents national shipowners associations, accounting for about 80% of the world’s merchant fleet. “Can we make sure and guarantee the safety of the crews? What’s going to happen with the mines and the minefields, as well? So lots of uncertainty and unknowns at the moment," he told the Associated Press. Getting wheat and other food out is critical to farmers in Ukraine, who are running out of storage capacity as they harvest their fields.
  
  “I think it’s going to come (down) to the position of the marine insurers that provide war risk and how much they are going to be adding in additional charges for vessels to go into that area,” said Michelle Wiese Bockmann, shipping and commodities analyst at Lloyd’s List, a global shipping news publication. Bockmann said vessels carrying this kind of load typically have between 20 to 25 seafarers on board. “You can’t risk those lives without something concrete and acceptable to the shipowners and to their charterers to move grain,” she said. Marine insurers reached by the Associated Press declined to comment on whether they would provide coverage for these ships.
   
• Ukrainian traders have able to send some grain through the Danube River, which helped buoy exports to about 1.5 million tons in May and up to around 2 million tons in June, though that is still less than half the monthly grain shipments of 4 to 5 million tons prior to the war, according to Svetlana Malysh, a Black Sea agriculture markets analyst with Refinitiv. Over the 2021-2022 marketing year, Russia exported about 30 million tons of wheat, according to Refinitiv trade flows. That is the lowest level since 2017, in part because of the chilling effect of sanctions. Russian fertilizer exports also saw a drop of 25% in the first quarter of the year compared with the same period last year, in part due to Western sanctions, Malysh said.
  
  However, low water levels on the Danube are also creating another issue for shipments via that route.
   
• Russia faces "economic oblivion" as Western sanctions continue to eat away at the warring nation's GDP. A new research report by Yale academics said Moscow has been publishing inaccurate economic data throughout the war, and that the economy in Russia is not nearly as resilient as it may seem.

— Nominations. The Senate Environment and Public Works panel Wednesday will hold a meeting to consider the nominations of Joseph Goffman to be assistant administrator of the Office of Air and Radiation for the EPA; as well as Annie Caputo and Bradley Crowell to serve as members of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Goffman is expected to encounter strong resistance from Republicans, largely because of his role in crafting the Obama-era Clean Power Plan.

— U.S. military making plans in case Pelosi travels to Taiwan. Officials told the Associated Press that if House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) goes to Taiwan — still an uncertainty — the military would increase its movement of forces and assets in the Indo-Pacific region. U.S. officials say they have little fear that China would attack Nancy Pelosi’s plane if she flies to Taiwan. But the U.S. House speaker would be entering one of the world’s hottest spots, where a mishap, misstep or misunderstanding could endanger her safety. So the Pentagon is developing plans for any contingency. U.S. Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that discussion of any specific travel is premature. But, he added, “if there’s a decision made that Speaker Pelosi or anyone else is going to travel and they asked for military support, we will do what is necessary to ensure a safe conduct of their visit. And I’ll just leave it at that.”

— Biden, Xi to hold talks amid new tensions over Taiwan. Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping will speak Thursday, according to a U.S. official first cited by Bloomberg, amid new tension between Washington and Beijing over China’s claims on Taiwan and the possibility of a visit to Taiwan by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Beijing is warning that it will take “forceful measures” should Pelosi visit the self-ruled island of Taiwan that China claims as part of its territory. Chinese officials are sending a message that a visit by Pelosi would be viewed as a change in U.S. policy and treated as a provocation. “If the U.S. insists on going its own way, China will take forceful measures to resolutely respond and counter it, and we will do what we say,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin.

     Possible agenda for talks. The talks between Biden and Xi could also include discussion of North Korea’s nuclear program, differences between Beijing and Washington over Russia’s war in Ukraine, efforts by the Biden administration to revive the Iran nuclear deal and the status of the U.S. administration’s review of tough tariffs imposed on China by the Trump administration.

— China rejects report it tried to obtain Federal Reserve data. The report, citing an investigation by a Senate panel, adds to accusations of Chinese computer hacking and other efforts to steal U.S. commercial and government information. The report “has no factual basis,” said a foreign ministry spokesman, Zhao Lijian. The Wall Street Journal said Chinese authorities tried to recruit employees of regional Fed banks by offering contracts. It said an employee who visited Shanghai in 2019 during U.S./Chinese trade tension was threatened with prison to pressure the employee to disclose data including about tariffs. “The report you mentioned is a political lie fabricated by a few Republican lawmakers who harbor ill intentions,” Zhao said in response to questions at a regular news briefing. He blamed “China-phobia and persecution mania.”

— Global trade growth in 2022 and 2023 will likely slow by more than previously expected, according to new forecasts from the International Monetary Fund. That downgrade reflects the “decline in global demand and supply chain problems,” it said in its new World Economic Outlook.

    

— President Biden is planning to announce new climate actions this week to help mitigate wildfire risk and protect vulnerable communities from extreme heat. The administration outlined new plans to plant 1 billion trees as part of an effort to help eliminate a “backlog” of reforestation needs in the U.S. and help mitigate wildfire risk. USDA has invested more than $100 million in reforestation so far this year under funds allocated by the bipartisan infrastructure bill.

     Later this week, Biden also plans to announce new resources for communities dealing with extreme heat and will detail new initiatives “to help lower families’ utility bills by expanding access to more affordable sources of clean energy,” a senior administration official told E&E News.

— Oil industry touts study showing exports favored over calls for ban. Industry groups are marketing U.S. oil exports as a global price-lowering mechanism against calls from some Democrats and environmental groups for a ban to be reinstituted in response to high fuel prices. The American Petroleum Institute (API) and the American Exploration and Production Council released the findings of a jointly-commissioned study (link), which estimated that, since the petroleum export ban was lifted in 2015, U.S. consumer spending on refined products and natural gas was $92 billion lower than it otherwise would have been because of the increase in production tied to the lifting of the ban. “Lifting the crude oil export ban allowed U.S. oil prices to converge with international benchmarks, spurring more drilling activity and leading to higher crude oil production,” said the analysis, which was developed by consultancy ICF.

     It also estimated that the lifting of the ban reduced global oil prices by $1.93 per barrel over six years and contributed $161 billion to U.S GDP.

     The U.S.  was exporting less than 500,000 barrels of crude oil per day in 2015 before the ban was lifted, and now consistently exports more than 3 million bpd.

     API comments. Mike Sommers, API’s president and CEO, said the findings show that “if the U.S. is not exporting energy, it leaves the door open for unstable nations or those with less stringent environmental standards to fill the void and reap the benefits.”

     The Biden administration told oil producers in December that it would not pursue an export ban, although Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm more recently said Biden isn’t willing to take it off the table.

— U.S. plans refill of SPR. The Biden administration laid out plans to refill the nation’s oil reserves. The Energy Department plans to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) with oil purchases that are likely to begin after fiscal 2023 and could be made via fixed-price contracts, an administration official said Tuesday.

— Payments for hog producers via SMHPP. USDA will issue around $62.8 million to eligible hog producers via the Spot Market Hog Pandemic Program (SMHPP) starting this week. SMHPP assists eligible producers who sold hogs through a spot market sale from April 16, 2020, through Sept. 1, 2020. While the program was originally funded at $50 million, USDA this week added $25 million to the effort. SMHPP payments are calculated by multiplying the number of head of eligible hogs, not to exceed 10,000 head, by the payment rate of $54 per head. The extra funds injected mean there will be no payment factor applied and eligible producers should receive 100% of their calculated SMHPP payment. There is no per person or legal entity payment limitation on SMHPP payments.

— Summary:

• Global Covid-19 cases at 572,577,289 with 6,389,428 deaths.
• U.S. case count is at 90,735,812 with 1,027,912 deaths.
• Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center says there have been 601,497,801 doses administered, 222,950,194 have been fully vaccinated, or 67.67% of the U.S. population.

— New studies conclude that animals sold at a seafood market in Wuhan, China, are most likely what started the Covid-19 pandemic. In June, the World Health Organization recommended that scientists continue to research all possible origins of the coronavirus outbreak, including a lab leak. In one of the new studies published Tuesday, researchers determined that the earliest Covid-19 cases were centered at the Wuhan market among vendors who sold live animals or people who shopped there. Another study said the first animal-to-human transmission probably happened around Nov. 18, 2019, and that an early version of the virus was found only in people who had a direct connection to the Wuhan market.

— Mike Pence and Donald Trump returned to Washington to deliver competing speeches, with the former vice president briefly mentioning the Jan. 6 Capitol riot and saying it was time to look ahead and the former president attacking the congressional committee that has portrayed him as the mob’s ringleader. Link for more via the Wall Street Journal.

— Senate votes to advance bill to subsidize U.S.-made semiconductor chips. The Senate voted Tuesday to advance a bill that would provide $52 billion in subsidies to domestic semiconductor manufacturers, as well as invest billions in science and technology innovation, in a bid to strengthen the United States’ competitiveness and self-reliance in what is seen as a keystone industry for economic and national security. The measure includes funds for domestic microchip manufacturing and research subsidies, plus more than $2 billion for less advanced legacy chips. Supporters say the measure would make the U.S. more competitive against China, the world leader in building new chip factories.

     Next step: passage vote. The Senate will hold a vote on final passage of the $280 billion CHIPS Plus bill around 11:30 a.m. ET. With 64 senators voting for cloture Tuesday, there’s no question this legislation will pass.

— Antitrust legislation aimed at Big Tech may be off Senate agenda for now. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) told donors at a Capitol Hill fund-raiser yesterday that the American Innovation and Choice Online Act, which he had promised to bring to a vote this summer, lacks the support needed to get it to the Senate floor, Bloomberg reported (link). The bill’s bipartisan backers have been pressuring Schumer to act fast, before midterm elections that could change the balance of power in Congress.

— Fauci: White House taking monkeypox “very seriously.”  In an appearance on CNN, Dr. Anthony Fauci, chief medical adviser to the president, discussed the administration’s response to the monkeypox outbreak, including the expectation that the White House will name a monkeypox coordinator. Fauci said, “This is something that we’re taking very seriously and when you have something like that, you want coordination among all the different agencies.” Fauci explained how a coordinator would oversee the effort, including testing, vaccine distribution, treatment, and community outreach. In an interview on MSNBC’s Morning Joe, Fauci said, “We have to outreach to the community predominantly at risk, men who have sex with men. But we have to do it without any stigma. When you have stigma, that’s the biggest enemy of public health. ... Outreach to the community is going to be a very important part of this effort.”

— Biden reportedly may offer $10,000 in student loan relief and another payment pause. President Joe Biden is mulling providing more actions on student loans, including the cancellation of $10,000 in federal student loan debt per borrower, Bloomberg reported (link) Tuesday citing people familiar with the matter, as Biden hones in on fulfilling a key campaign promise. Not all Americans may be eligible for the relief, as a source told Bloomberg that Biden is likely to not cancel debt for individuals making between $125,000 and $150,000 or more. Biden is also considering another extension on federal student loan repayments, according to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the situation. A moratorium on federal student repayments has been in place since March 2020, though the pause is slated to expire Aug. 31. Student loan servicing contractors have been told to hold off sending billing statements ahead of the Aug. 31 deadline.

— The U.S. now has the most monkeypox cases in the world. Infections rose 33% across three days, bringing the total over 3,800. International travelers may encounter precautionary measures by some countries such as self-isolation or avoiding close contact with people and animals. The government says 800,000 doses of vaccine will soon be distributed.