Congress Out While Turkeys Get a Pardon and White House Xmas Tree Arrives

FOMC Minutes | Deere reports earnings | Weekly Export Sales report on Friday

Headers Weekly 112122

Washington Focus

With a pardon for turkeys and arrival of the White House Christmas tree, Washington is in full holiday mode.

Monday, Nov. 21

· China overreach. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) holds a virtual discussion on "Overreach: How China Derailed its Peaceful Rise."

· U.S. monetary, fiscal policy. The Brookings Institution holds a discussion on "A Monetary and Fiscal History of the United States, 1961-2021."

· Technology. PunchBowl News holds a virtual discussion on "Building Trust in Technology."

Tuesday, Nov. 22

· Federal Reserve. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester scheduled to speak.

· Arab spring. The Center for the Study of Islam and Democracy holds a discussion on "The Future of Democracy in the Arab World: What Went Wrong with the 'Arab Spring," and How to Fix It."

· Global discord. The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research holds a discussion on "Global Discord: Values and Power in a Fractured World Order."

Wednesday, Nov. 23

· China payment system and the U.S. dollar. The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual discussion on "Why did China build its Cross-Border Interbank Payment System and what does it mean for the dollar?"

Thursday, Nov. 24

· Thanksgiving holiday. U.S. markets and government offices are closed in observance of Thanksgiving.

Friday, Nov. 25

· Shortened trading session. U.S. gov’t offices are open, but U.S. equity markets will close early at 1 p.m. ET while the bond market will close at 2 pm ET. U.S. commodity markets will also observe an abbreviated trading session with agricultural commodity trade halting at 1:05 pm ET. The CFTC Commitments of Traders report will also not be released until Monday, Nov. 28.

Economic Reports for the Week

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve releases minutes from its November monetary-policy meeting, where officials approved a 0.75-percentage-point increase in its benchmark federal-funds rate while also signaling plans to keep raising rates. The minutes will provide more details on the discussions over the decision.

Monday, Nov. 21

Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago releases its National Activity Index for October. Consensus estimate is for a 0.13 reading, up from September’s 0.10.

Tuesday, Nov. 22

Richmond Fed Manufacturing: Richmond Fed releases its manufacturing index for November. The outlook is for a 1.5 reading after a negative 10 reading in October.

Wednesday, Nov. 23

MBA Mortgage Applications
Jobless Claims: The markets will be looking for signals for future interest-rate hikes from the Federal Open Market Committee when it releases the minutes from its Nov. 1-2 policy meeting.
Durable Goods Orders: Census Bureau releases the durable-goods report for October. The consensus call is that new orders for durable manufactured goods increased by 0.30%, month over month, on a seasonally adjusted basis, compared with a 0.39% rise in September.
New Home Sales: Census Bureau reports new residential sales data for October. Economists forecast that sales of new single-family homes ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 572,500, compared with 603,000 in September.
PMI Composite Flash: S&P Global releases both its Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ indexes for November. Expectations are for the Manufacturing PMI to be 50.0, while the Services index is seen coming in at 48.2. This compares with readings of 50.4 and 47.8, respectively, in October.
Consumer Sentiment: The University of Michigan releases its final reading of consumer sentiment for November. Consumer sentiment sank after improving in the last four months as high inflation and economic uncertainty weighed on consumers, the initial reading said.
FOMC Minutes: Traders and analysts will be looking for signals for future interest-rate hikes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) when it releases the minutes from its Nov. 1-2 policy meeting.

Friday, Nov. 25

It’s Black Friday, one of the busiest shopping days of the year, and the traditional kickoff to the holiday shopping season. Holiday spending is expected to be robust, even with the inflation challenges that are facing consumers. The National Retail Federation estimates that holiday retail sales during November and December will grow by 6% to 8% over last year’s, compared with an average 4.9% increase over the past 10 years.

Key USDA & international Ag & Energy Reports and Events

As noted, some changes for weekly reports as USDA’s Weekly Export Sales is released Friday and not its usual Thursday date due to the Thanksgiving holiday. The normally Friday released CFTC Commitments of Traders Report will be delayed until next Monday.

Monday, Nov. 21

Ag reports and events:

Export Inspections
Crop Progress
Vegetables and Pulses Data
Fruit & Tree Nut Data
Cotton and Wool Yearbook
Chickens & Eggs
Milk Production
MARS monthly report on EU crop conditions
Malaysia’s Nov. 1-20 palm oil exports