Biden to Announce Nominee for Fed Chair Today

WHIP+ update | Biden’s health | Vilsack assessment | Former EPA administrator on RFS

In Today’s Digital Newspaper

Market Focus:
• Biden today to announce his nominee for chair of U.S. Federal Reserve
• Biden to give speech Tuesday on U.S. economy, inflation, logistics
• Global supply-chain woes beginning to recede
• FOMC minutes released Wednesday
• USDA reports this week include updates on ag trade and food prices 
• Nebraska has lowest state unemployment rate on record
• El Salvador doubling down on its bet on Bitcoin  
• Ag demand update
• Wheat surges, corn and soybeans quiet to open the week
• Brazilian soybean, full-season corn planting nearing completion
• China’s imports of U.S. soybeans down sharply in October
• Ukraine grain exports up 20% from last year
• Russia’s grain exports continue to run below year-ago
• Neutral Cattle on Feed Report
• Cash hog decline accelerates

Policy Focus:
• Fate of Build Back Better (BBB) Act in Senate: Centrist Sen. Joe Manchin
• Another stopgap spending bill coming for fiscal year 2022
• Debt limit: Schumer, McConnell talking behind the scenes
• Update on WHIP+ 

Afghanistan:
• Taliban wants television channels to stop broadcasting shows featuring women actors
• Commission to examine the 20-year war in Afghanistan part of legislative proposal 

China Update:
• China’s imports of U.S. soybeans down sharply in October 

Energy & Climate Change:
• Former EPA administrator wonders why it’s taking so long to make RFS decisions 

Coronavirus Update:
• Breakthrough cases of Covid-19 hitting older people, those with underlying health conditions
• Vaccine mandate impact
• Dr. Fauci and masks 

Politics & Elections:
• Biden, aides tell allies he plans to seek re-election in 2024
• Doctors: Biden is ‘healthy and fit to successfully execute duties of presidency’
• Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Texas), 85, will not seek re-election
• Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) will soon decide future
• Will Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) run again?
• Likely reasons if Biden’s poll numbers do not shoot up soon
• Texas GOP Gov. Greg Abbott holds 6-point lead over Beto O’Rourke: Poll 

Other Items of Note:
• U.S. shares intelligence indicating Russia planning potential large-scale invasion of Ukraine
• Some ask: Is Vilsack out of touch?

MARKET FOCUS

Equities today: Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings. Asian equities opened with week with a mixed start. Japan’s Nikkei was up 28.24 points, 0.09%, at 29,774.11. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 98.63 points, 0.39%, at 24,951.34. European equities are under pressure in early trading. The Stoxx 600 was down 0.1% while most other markets posted losses of 0.1% to 0.2%. However, British shares were little changed and Spanish shares were slightly higher.

     U.S. equities Friday: The Dow fell 268.97 points, 0.75%, at 35,601.98. The Nasdaq rose 63.71 points, 0.40%, at 16,057.44, for another record finish and first close over the 16,000 mark. The S&P 500 was down 6.58 points, 0.14%, at 4,697.96.

On tap today (see detailed list of events and reports below):

     • U.S. existing-home sales are expected to fall to an annual pace of 6.2 million in October from 6.29 million one month earlier. (10 a.m. ET)
     • USDA Grain Export Inspections report, 11 a.m. ET
     • USDA Crop Progress report, 4 p.m. ET

Inflation watch: Rising prices and logistics have certainly and finally caught the attention of President Joe Biden. On Tuesday, Biden will discuss the economy and inflation ahead of an expected decision naming his next Federal Reserve chair nominee.

Economic updates are clustered early in the week with the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. U.S. markets and gov’t offices will be closed that day and markets will trade abbreviated hours on Friday. There will be some USDA data released on Friday, but no other major economic indicators are on the schedule.

     Ahead of the holiday, there will be a barrage of key updates, including another reading on third quarter GDP, Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales and International Trade in Goods. The U.S. economy is seen having performed a little better than the initial estimate of 2.0% in the third quarter while orders for goods aimed at lasting three years or more are expected to swing back into positive territory after contracting in September, keeping the report as one of the more volatile readings on U.S. economic activity.

     But the key focus will be on the Personal Income and Outlays figures which will include the inflation reading via the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. That is expected to come in north of 4% on an annualized basis for the core rate which removes gasoline and food prices.

     Existing Home Sales figures are also due early in the week. Data should continue to point to a U.S. economy that is expanding, but key will be whether and how much inflationary pressures are starting to constrain activity.

     Fed focus will be on the meeting recap from the Nov. 2-3 session. That recap on Wednesday will be watched for more color on the Fed’s widely expected decision to start tapering its bond purchases that have been taking place at $120 billion per month. But the bigger focus could be on how the recap casts Fed views on inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy. The Fed’s stance has largely been that the price increases are “transitory,” but will likely be present longer than they initially expected. The caveat that Fed officials agreed to act if it appears the price increases are persisting longer than expected or are rising more than expected could be a key message in the recap for the meeting. If there is more emphasis on that phrasing, it could impact markets that will be operating with reduced trading volume around the holiday.

     Lastly, President Biden will announce today whether or not he will reappoint current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Biden has signaled he is looking for continuity in Fed policy because he is considering whether to reappoint Powell for a second four-year term or elevate governor Lael Brainard, who has strongly backed the central bank’s interest rate policy over the past four years. Instead, the president’s choice may turn on politics rather than economics, because Powell’s candidacy has divided progressive Democrats and led to competing views inside the Biden administration. “Because it’s not a slam dunk that Brainard would get confirmed, it would at least be a period of significant political wrangling, whereas Powell would sail right through,” says Tom Graff, head of fixed income and portfolio manager at Brown Advisory.

USDA updates this week are somewhat affected by the holiday, with the Export Sales recap for the week ended Nov. 18 due on Friday. Ahead of that, two key updates arrive on Tuesday.

     Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade release will be watched for the FY 2022 forecast which was forecast in August at $177.5 billion for exports, $159.5 billion for imports with a trade surplus of $18.0 billion. But with FY 2021 finishing with exports at $172.2 billion and imports at a record $163.3 billion, that left a trade surplus of $8.9 billion. USDA in August forecast exports at $173.5 billion, imports at $157.5 billion with a surplus of $16.0 billion. It is clear the import forecast is the key “miss” as the recovering U.S. economy has bolstered demand for products not produced domestically. That should also translate into a higher forecast for imports in FY 2022 while the export outlook is potentially less uncertain relative to the level of adjustment that will be made to the forecasts. For FY 2021, U.S. agriculture bounced back to a trade surplus after deficits in both FY 2019 and 2020.

     Food Price Outlook recap will be one that major media will likely find since consumers continue to see higher prices at the grocery store for a broad array of products. November is often a time when USDA economists adjust their forecasts for overall food price inflation, grocery store and restaurant prices. The easy call is that those levels could well be adjusted higher for 2021 and potentially even 2022.

Reports released this week:

Monday:

• Economic reports. Chicago Fed National Activity Index | Existing Home Sales
• Energy reports. Libya Energy and Economic Summit (runs through Tuesday) | Reuters Energy Transition Europe conference (runs through Tuesday)
• USDA reports. AMS. Export Inspections ERS: Cotton and Wool Yearbook NASS: Chickens & Eggs | Cold Storage | Crop Progress

Tuesday:

• Economic reports. PMI Composite Flash | Richmond Fed Manufacturing
• Energy reports. API US inventory report
• USDA reports. ERS: Outlook for US Agricultural Trade | Food Price Outlook NASS: Poultry Slaughter

Wednesday:

• Economic reports. Jobless Claims | GDP | Durable Goods Orders | International Trade in Goods | Wholesale Inventories | New Home Sales | Personal Income & Outlays | Consumer Sentiment | FOMC Minutes 
• Energy reports. EIA Petroleum Status Report | Weekly Ethanol Production | EIA Natural Gas Report | Baker-Hughes Rig Count | Genscape ARA weekly crude inventory
• USDA reports. ERS: Agricultural Exchange Rate Data Set NASS: Livestock Slaughter | Cotton Ginnings | Broiler Hatchery | Farm Labor

Thursday:

• Holiday. U.S. markets and gov’t offices are closed for Thanksgiving.
• Energy reports. Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile weekly data | Russia weekly refinery outage data

Friday:

• Markets. Markets and U.S. gov’t offices are open, but most markets will close early and the bond market will also close early.
• Energy reports. ICE weekly Commitments of Traders report for Brent, gasoil | CFTC Commitments of Traders
• USDA reports. FAS. Export Sales NASS: Peanut Stocks and Processing | Peanut Prices

Market perspectives:

     • Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher ahead of U.S. economic updates, with foreign rival currencies moving little against the greenback – the U.S. dollar index is not far below last week’s 15-month high. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has firmed to trade just above 1.57% with a mixed tone in global government bond yields. Gold and silver futures are weaker in electronic trading, with gold around $1,842 per troy ounce and silver around $24.77 per troy ounce.

     • Crude oil prices are lower ahead of U.S. trading, with US crude around $75.80 per barrel and Brent around $78.75 per barrel. Prices were little changed in Asian action, with U.S. crude down three cents at $75.97 per barrel and Brent down five cents at $78.84 per barrel.

     • Global supply-chain woes are beginning to recede, but shipping, manufacturing and retail executives say that they don’t expect a return to more-normal operations until next year, the Wall Street Journal reports (link). In Asia, Covid-related factory closures, energy shortages and port-capacity limits have eased in recent weeks. In the U.S., major retailers say they have imported most of what they need for the holidays. Ocean freight rates have retreated from record levels. Still, executives and economists say strong consumer demand for goods in the West, ongoing port congestion in the U.S., shortages of truck drivers and elevated global freight rates continue to hang over any recovery. The risk of more extreme weather and flare-ups of Covid-19 cases can also threaten to clog up supply chains again.

     • Nebraska doesn’t just have the lowest unemployment rate in the U.S. It has the lowest state unemployment rate on record. The state's jobless rate ticked down to 1.9% last month, well below the national rate of 4.6% and the lowest for any state in Labor Department records tracing back to 1976. The WSJ describes the combination of factors that have kept joblessness well below the U.S. average from the onset of the pandemic (link). \

     • El Salvador is doubling down on its bet on Bitcoin, detailing plans to build a modern Alexandria called "Bitcoin City." The metropolis would be circular, with an airport, residential and commercial areas, and feature a central plaza designed to look like a Bitcoin symbol from the air. Geothermal energy would be provided from the Conchagua volcano in southeastern El Salvador, while the city would not levy any taxes (property, income or capital gains) except for VAT.

     • Ag demand: The Philippines bought around 40,000 MT of Australian feed wheat. South Korea tendered to buy between 48,500 MT and 58,500 MT of corn and between 8,000 MT and 16,000 MT of soymeal – both to be sourced from South America.

     • NWS weather: Holiday travelers thankful as Thanksgiving week kicks off on a tranquil note across much of the Lower 48... ...Wet Monday morning along the East Coast; Wettest and snowiest conditions in the Northwest; Lake effect snow showers in the Upper Great Lakes... ...Chilly temperatures in the East, warmer trend in the Heartland; Critical fire weather areas in the central High Plains and Southern California.

Items in Pro Farmer's First Thing Today include:

     • Wheat surges, corn and soybeans quiet to open the week
     • Brazilian soybean, full-season corn planting nearing completion
     • China’s imports of U.S. soybeans down sharply in October
     • Ukraine grain exports up 20% from last year
     • Russia’s grain exports continue to run below year-ago
     • Neutral Cattle on Feed Report
     • Cash hog decline accelerates

POLICY FOCUS

— Both the House and Senate is out, but questions remain on several topics, including:

• Fate of Build Back Better (BBB) Act: The House passed its version, which will be changed, perhaps significantly, in the Senate, sometime in December and perhaps later. The delay in the House was mostly show, as centrist Dems voted for the measure despite the price tag adding to the deficit. Convenient cover as provided to help the centrists vote for the package. As for the Senate, the key issues are: (1) How much and where the House bill will be changed and (2) what decision will centrist Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) make. Depending on what changes are made, if Manchin votes to approve the measure, his protestations in the future will be easily dismissed. If he votes no, he will support the vast majority of his state’s voters, but make his fellow Democrats more than unhappy at a time when disapproval takes all sorts of reactions. If he takes a middle viewpoint and says he want to postpone the vote into sometime in 2022, awaiting more information about inflation and the U.S. economy, he will not please any political group, but would be sincere to his initial concerns.
• Fiscal year (FY) 2022 spending will be the topline agenda item for lawmakers as the Dec. 3 deadline will come at the end of the week when the chambers return from the Thanksgiving break. That ups the odds for another short-term continuing resolution (CR), likely one that will push the stopgap gov’t funding to later in December to allow lawmakers to come to terms on what is becoming more likely — a massive omnibus spending plan that will keep the government funded through September 30, 2022.
• U.S. debt limit is another action point lawmakers will face with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen now putting that deadline at Dec. 15. Some private analysts are indicating that deadline is potentially later in December or even into January —Wrightson ICAP, which tracks the debt limit very closely, now says it believes the Treasury Department has until the middle of January before the nation hits the borrowing cap.. And even the Treasury estimate shifted later than the initial Dec. 3 deadline that Yellen presented to lawmakers earlier. Democratic and Republican leaders in the Senate are this time talking to each other on the matter, rather than political talk in the press. So, there may be a compromise brewing.

— Update on WHIP+. Many producers inform they have already received the last 10% of WHIP+ payments for those eligible for 2019-crop payouts.

     The big issue now is what happens and when regarding the already authorized WHIP+ program for 2020 and 2021, including livestock payments. There are some complications and issues regarding the coming WHIP+ details. Because commodity prices have gone up dramatically for many producers and the Harvest Price Option is automatic unless the producer opted out, farmers who have revenue crop insurance coverage could be iced out of any WHIP+ assistance despite huge yield losses. Why? Because under the WHIP+ formula, expected revenue would be based on an APH policy price election (determined during price discovery in late February) while the indemnity of a producer will be based on the substantially higher Harvest Price Option price election. Hence, when the indemnity is subtracted, it wipes out any WHIP+ payment. Netting out premiums paid from the indemnity that is subtracted will certainly help but it will not alone do the trick. 

     So, what’s more likely, say policy experts at Combest, Sell & Associates: USDA will need to use the HPO price on both the expected revenue and the crop insurance indemnity received or at least to use the APH price election on both the expected revenue and as a proxy in calculating crop insurance indemnities that must be subtracted if the program is to work. Short of that, producers devastated by drought and other natural disasters will not receive much if anything and USDA will be left flush with unused disaster dollars.

     Timeline: The new WHIP+ regulations are currently being written. It does not and perhaps will not follow program details of the past. USDA was instructed to simplify a very complex program and to expedite payments. Those tasks are very hard for bureaucrats to fulfill. Thus, it will likely take more time than most want. Many contacts say to expect payments in 2022, not this year.

AFGHANISTAN

— Taliban asked Afghanistan’s television channels to stop broadcasting shows featuring women actors. Female news presenters were also ordered to wear headscarves. The Ministry for the Promotion of Virtue and Prevention of Vice insisted that “these are not rules but religious guidelines.” Despite promising to rule more moderately during their second stint, the Taliban continue to impose restrictions on women.

— A commission to examine the 20-year war in Afghanistan, a global war on terrorism memorial, spending boosts for underwater warfare, and a U.S.-Israel artificial intelligence center are among provisions tucked into the Senate’s annual defense authorization bill. The Senate will vote to cut off debate on the NDAA after this week’s Thanksgiving break, likely setting up final passage in early December. Out of almost 1,000 amendments filed, only about 58 provisions made it onto the bill.

CHINA UPDATE

— China’s imports of U.S. soybeans down sharply in October. China imported 775,331 MT of U.S. soybeans in October, down 77% from last year. China brought in 3.3 MMT of Brazilian soybeans last month, down 22% from October 2020. As we previously reported, its total soybean imports at 5.1 MMT fell 41% from last year amid weak crush margins. China’s soybean arrivals in the fourth quarter, the prime U.S. shipping season, are expected to remain below year-ago levels as crush margins are negative.  

ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE

— Former EPA administrator wonders why Biden administration is taking so long to make needed RFS decisions. Andrew Wheeler served as administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), 2018-21. In a Wall Street Journal op-ed (link), he writes:

     “For the first three years of the Trump administration, the EPA, which I administered beginning in 2018, fulfilled its obligation to set annual renewable-fuel volumes. Last year we were delayed in setting the 2021 targets because the huge decline in gasoline consumption due to Covid-19 made it impossible to provide sound projections of 2021 gasoline sales by the November deadline. The EPA’s decisions on pending small-refinery waivers were delayed by a Supreme Court case, HollyFrontier Cheyenne Refining v. Renewable Fuels Association. The justices decided it in June, directing the government to continue the small-refinery waiver program. But given the pandemic, the Trump administration in 2020 extended the compliance deadlines under the program to stabilize the gasoline market.

     “The Biden administration… has inexplicably delayed decisions on the (RFS) waivers and proposals for the annual volumes for 2021 and 2022 under the RFS. Gasoline consumption returned to pre-Covid levels months ago, and the government has had five months to implement the Supreme Court decision. The EPA could and should have set the 2021 renewable-fuel volumes earlier this year. Decisions on the 2019 small-refinery hardship petitions could and should already have been made as well, as the Energy Department completed the technical analysis supporting decisions on the petitions in 2020. These petitions are typically received and acted upon following the compliance year once the refineries and DOE have the economic data.”

     Regarding RINs, Wheeler notes that there are almost no 2019 credits left and “the cost of those available has risen exponentially from $0.20 at the end of 2019 to over $1.50 this past August. Prices of credits have more than doubled since the beginning of this administration.” He then again wonders why the delay in announcements: “Because of the delay in making the small-refinery decisions since the Supreme Court ruling, many small refineries face crippling penalties or insolvency. This will mean a loss of jobs, often in places where good-paying jobs are hard to find. This uncertainty will add costs to producing domestic gasoline and will send prices at the pump even higher. Months ago, the EPA and Energy Department had the data to grant or deny small-refinery waivers. The only thing lacking is the political will to greenlight those decisions.”

     Wheeler’s bottom line: “If the administration doesn’t act, Congress needs to step in and revise the RFS in a manner that simplifies the program, particularly the volume requirement versus the small-refinery waiver system. Further delays will jeopardize small refineries, American workers and the public.”

     Comments: The op-ed lays out the situation and by a former EPA administrator. As with so many things in Washington, the agency has become too political. It is supposed to be independent (cue laughing now), but in recent administrations, the objectivity has been lost. The failure to make decisions at the right time is not only bad policy, it has negative implications. Whenever you have to ask Congress to help you out, that alone is a clear example of failure. While the biofuel industry has continued to produce despite the lack of mandates, the uncertainty makes investments in the industry more uncertain.

CORONAVIRUS UPDATE

— Summary: Global cases of Covid-19 are at 257,682,036 with 5,153,222 deaths, according to data compiled by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University. The U.S. case count is at 47,730,591 with 771,118 deaths. The Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center said that there have been 451,4543,834 doses administered, 196,284,442 have been fully vaccinated, or 59.79% of the U.S. population.

— As of this morning, 69.2% of the U.S. population has received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine and 59.1% is fully vaccinated, according to the Bloomberg News global vaccine tracker (link).

— Breakthrough cases of Covid-19 are hitting older people and those with underlying health conditions particularly hard, according to a new review of data by the WSJ. In particular, people with diabetes, chronic lung disease, kidney disease and compromised immune systems were at risk of serious outcomes from breakthrough cases. State reporting is inconsistent but collectively shows there have been more than 1.89 million cases and at least 72,000 hospitalizations and 20,000 deaths among fully vaccinated people in the U.S. this year, the WSJ found.

— Vaccine mandate impact. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said he doesn’t expect a vaccine requirement that includes airport security screeners to disrupt U.S. holiday-season travel. Today is the deadline for any U.S. federal employees, including Transportation Security Administration and USDA workers, to document full vaccination or apply for an exemption, though any discipline for workers who don’t comply isn’t immediate. “People aren’t getting immediately pulled off their posts. It’s part of a process to make sure that everyone in the federal workforce is safe,” Buttigieg said on NBC’s Meet the Press yesterday.

— Dr. Fauci and masks. If you and your family members are fully vaccinated against Covid-19, it's OK for you to ditch the masks this holiday season when you're around each other, Dr. Anthony Fauci told CNN Sunday. "That's what I'm going to do with my family," Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease said on State of the Union. However, the nation's top infectious disease expert also noted that if you're traveling or are unaware of the vaccination status of the people around you, then you should wear a mask in those situations.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

— Biden, aides tell allies he plans to seek re-election in 2024. The Washington Post reports (link) President Biden “and members of his inner circle have reassured allies in recent days that he plans to run for re-election in 2024, as they take steps to deflect concern about the 79-year-old president’s commitment to another campaign and growing Democratic fears of a coming Republican return to power.” The Post adds the comments are “aimed in part at tamping down the assumption among many Democrats that Biden may not seek re-election given his age and waning popularity, while also effectively freezing the field for Vice President Harris and other potential presidential hopefuls.” According to the Post, “The efforts come as the broader Democratic community has become increasingly anxious after a bruising six-month stretch that has seen Biden’s national approval rating plummet more than a dozen points, into the low 40s, amid growing concerns about inflation, Democratic infighting in Washington and faltering public health efforts to move beyond the Covid-19 pandemic.”

— Biden is “healthy” and remains “fit to successfully execute the duties of the presidency,” his doctors said on Friday after he underwent his routine physical exam and colonoscopy just a day before his 79th birthday. But Biden is suffering from a “perceptibly stiffer and less fluid” gait following a series of injuries and is experiencing a more frequent need to clear his throat or cough during public engagements, his physician found.

— Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Texas), 85, will not seek re-election at the end of 15 terms in Congress. She is the 16th House Democrat to announce she will not run in 2022.

— Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) said he would take the Thanksgiving break to consider whether he would take incoming New York City Mayor Eric Adams up on his offer to become one of the city’s deputy mayors.

— Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.): New York media is wondering whether Nadler, chair of the House Judiciary Committee, will run again. The 74-year-old Nadler has served in the House since 1992.

— If President Biden’s poll numbers do not shoot up soon, here are the likely reasons: During several recent trips across the country, voters are definitely worried about the fate of the country, recent policy moves both executive and legislative, and concerns about the president’s ability to serve. If that continues into 2022 elections, a GOP wave is not only likely, but it could also be massive.  

— Texas GOP Gov. Greg Abbott holds a 6-point lead over Beto O’Rourke, per a new Dallas Morning News/UT Tyler poll (link), and has a 10-point advantage in a three-way race over O’Rourke and Matthew McConaughey. In a head-to-head matchup, McConaughey leads Abbott by 8 points. By a large margin, Democrats say they think O’Rourke is their best bet.

OTHER ITEMS OF NOTE     

— The U.S. has shared intelligence with European allies indicating that Russia is planning for a potential large-scale invasion of Ukraine early next year, Bloomberg reports (link). The intelligence includes maps that shows a buildup of Russian troops and artillery to prepare for a rapid, large-scale push into Ukraine from multiple locations if President Vladimir Putin decided to invade. The attack would be far larger and more devastating than the 2014 conflict in eastern Ukraine, where 14,000 people have been killed in a rebellion waged by Russian-backed separatists. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on a conference call that movements of Russia’s troops on its own soil are a domestic matter and “don’t present a threat to anyone and shouldn’t raise any concerns.” U.S. allegations of Russian buildup for possible invasion are part of a “targeted information campaign,” which is aimed at building up tensions, he said.

— Question some keep asking those giving ag policy speeches: Is USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack out of touch? The question in large part comes from farmers who have heard him recently and wonder if he is only focusing on small size producers and not on the part of the ag sector generating most of the production. Others recall this seems like a replay of sorts to Vilsack's initial tenure at USDA in the Obama administration when during Vilsack’s first year the focus was on small farmers and largely away from production agriculture.

EVENTS AND REPORTS

Monday, Nov. 22

· President Joe Biden to celebrate Thanksgiving with service members and military families as part of the Joining Forces initiative in Fort Bragg, Carolina.
· Nord Stream 2. Atlantic Council virtual discussion on "Moscow, Nord Stream 2, and Europe's energy crisis."
· Labor and workforce. Labor Department officials conference call briefing on a new final rule from the Wage and Hour Division that "will support workers and the nation's economy."
· Germany and COP26. Woodrow Wilson Center Global Europe Program and Environmental Change and Security Program virtual discussion on "Germany after COP26: Europe's driving force to get to net-zero?"
· Financial services access. Axios virtual discussion on "Expanding the Financial Field," focusing on steps the public and private sectors are taking to expand access to capital and services for those who have been excluded from the financial system.
· Crypto currency regulations. Cato Institute virtual discussion on "New Technology and Old Rules: Constructing a Crypto Regulatory Framework."
· China issues. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual debate on "China's Growing Assertiveness is mainly driven by a sense of insecurity and perceived threats," the second of a five-part conference on "China's Power: Up for Debate 2021 - Debate 2."
· Indo-Pacific region. Center for a New American Security virtual discussion on "Indo-Pacific Empire: China, America and the Contest for the World's Pivotal Region."

· Economic reports. Chicago Fed National Activity Index | Existing Home Sales

· Energy reports. Libya Energy and Economic Summit (runs through Tuesday) | Reuters Energy Transition Europe conference (runs through Tuesday

· USDA reports. AMS. Export Inspections ERS: Cotton and Wool Yearbook NASS: Chickens & Eggs | Cold Storage | Crop Progress