Oklahoma auction volumes point to limited supplies of feeder cattle with the fall run of calves under way, said Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University livestock marketing specialist, in OSU’s latest Cow-Calf Corner newsletter Monday.
Weekly auction volumes have been below year-ago levels with only one week in the last 12 higher year over year, he said. Since July 1, total auction volume is down 23.2% year over year, a decrease of around 78,000 head (see chart below).
While the summer market drop and high temperatures might explain reduced volumes in July, August and September, that would also imply that delayed marketings should be pushed into fall, Peel wrote, noting that, instead, October auction volumes haven’t indicated a strong fall run.
“This is perhaps more surprising given poor forage conditions due to continuing drought,” Peel said. “The most recent pasture and range conditions for Oklahoma show 51 percent in poor to very poor condition. Perhaps larger auction runs are coming yet this fall…or maybe the cattle just aren’t there.”
November feeder cattle were down 55 cents Tuesday morning at $340.55, while December live cattle rose 7.5 cents to $226.525. Peel noted that as of Monday, feeder prices were up roughly 5.5% to 6% since Labor Day (see chart below). Lightweight calf prices, which typically see seasonal pressure into October, are up this year. He noted that demand for wheat pasture calves sometimes results in a counterseasonal rally, but observed that stocker demand has remained limited. Meanwhile, wheat planting remains behind the normal pace due to dry conditions, though recent moisture and expectations for more rain could spark both wheat planting and wheat stocker demand.
“Stocker and feeder prices may continue to recover in the fourth quarter with limited supplies and strong demand supporting prices, “he said.