What You Need to Know: USDA’s March 2026 Crop Production and WASDE Numbers

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Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading 5 to 7 cents lower, soybeans were 4 to 7 cents higher, wheat futures were 12 to 15 cents lower and cotton was mostly 60 to 80 points higher. Following the report release, there was little market reaction.

As anticipated, there are very few changes to the March WASDE. According to Bill Watts with Pro Farmer, the biggest standout might be the bump in global corn ending stocks to 292.75 million metric tons from 288.98 MMT in February, reflecting bigger crops in Brazil and Ukraine.

Corn: There are no changes for U.S. corn outlook compared with the February WASDE. The season-average corn price is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel.

Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is forecast 2.7 million tons higher to 1.593 billion based on increases for Ukraine and Brazil, which are partly offset by a decline for Argentina.

Trade changes include higher corn exports for India. Brazil’s exports for the marketing year ending February 2026 are higher, while Argentina’s exports are reduced.

Global corn ending stocks are up 3.8 million to 292.8 million tons, reflecting increases for Brazil, Ukraine and India that are partly offset by a decline for Argentina.

Soybeans: U.S. 2025/26 soybean supply and use projections include increased imports and crush and unchanged ending stocks. Soybean imports are increased 5 million bushels. Crush is raised 5 million bushels, driven by higher soybean meal domestic use. Soybean oil domestic use is marginally lower with lower soybean oil for biofuel use mostly offset by higher food, feed and other industrial use. Soybean oil for biofuel use is lowered 800 million pounds to 14 billion and soybean oil ending stocks are revised slightly higher. U.S. soybean ending stocks are unchanged at 350 million bushels.

The season-average soybean price is projected unchanged at $10.20 per bushel. The soybean meal price is raised $5 to $300 per short ton. The soybean oil price is projected at 55 cents per pound, up 2 cents.

Global soybean production is reduced on lower production in Argentina (down 0.5 million tons to 48 million) and Ukraine (reduced 0.5 million tons to 5.5 million).

Global soybean supply and use forecasts include lower production, exports, crush and ending stocks. Soybean exports are reduced for Ukraine and imports are lowered for India, Iran and Turkey. Crush is reduced for Iran and largely offset by higher U.S. crush. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 0.2 million tons mainly on lower stocks for India and Ukraine

Wheat: There are no changes for the 2025/26 U.S. wheat supply and use categories. The season-average farm price is up 5 cents per bushel to $4.95.

The 2025/26 global outlook projects larger supplies and consumption but reduces trade and ending stocks. Supplies increase by 0.2 million tons to 1,101.8 million, primarily on increased output for Ukraine and Kazakhstan that is partly offset by lower production in Australia. Australian production is down by 1 million tons, with harvest nearly complete, to 36 million – its third highest on record. Global consumption is raised 0.7 million tons to a record 824.8 million, primarily on higher feed and residual use for the European Union. World trade is up 0.2 million tons to 222.2 million, with larger exports for Argentina and Kazakhstan that are mostly offset by lower forecasts for the European Union, Russia and Ukraine. Projected 2025/26 global ending stocks are reduced 0.6 million tons to 277 million but remain at a five-year high.

For a break down of global production highlights, visit Pro Farmer’s report reaction.

The report, due at 11 a.m. CDT, isn’t expected to post any significant shifts in corn, soybean or wheat ending stocks for the current marketing year. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, on average, look for corn, wheat and soybean ending stocks for the 2025-26 marketing year to move by 5 million bushels or less.

(USDA)

It will be worth watching to see if USDA tweaks its forecast for U.S. soybean exports after President Donald Trump in early February said China was considering buying an additional 8 million metric tons of the crop after completing an earlier pledge to purchases 12 million metric tons. In its February WASDE, USDA acknowledged China was “reported to be considering buying more U.S. soybeans,” but played down the impact purchases would have on the balance sheet.

Corn exports continue to run well ahead of their expected pace, but USDA might be reluctant to further boost what is already a record forecast, possibly opting to wait another month or two.

USDA’s take on South American production isn’t likely to see a big shift. In February, USDA raised its estimate of Brazil’s soybean crop to a record 180 million metric tons, up from 178 million metric tons in January. Argentina was left unchanged at 48.5 million metric tons.

(USDA)

Private forecasters have since issued projections above and below USDA’s Brazil forecast as harvest progresses in northern Mato Grosso. Harvest in Brazil is under way and yield reports are generally strong, though significant quality concerns were reported in northern Mato Grosso.

Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, on average, look for USDA to trim its Brazil forecast by 600,000 metric tons to 179.4 million metric tons and take 200,000 metric tons off the Argentina estimate to 48.3 million metric tons.

Corn estimates are also unlikely to see a major shift. USDA pegged Brazil’s crop at 131 million metric tons in February and Argentina at 53 million metric tons. Analysts expect USDA to raise its Brazilian corn estimate by 1 million metric tons to 132 million metric tons, while shaving 100,000 metric tons off Argentina’s crop to 52.9 million metric tons.

For more on what to expect in the February WASDE report, head on over to Pro Farmer.