USDA added 177 million bushels to the 2025-26 balance sheet on Sept. 30 then added 234 million bushels to the 2026 corn crop Friday. That finding of 411 additional bushels quickly shifted the balance sheet from restrictive to relatively abundant. December corn futures are down around 65¢ since the early September peak in a selloff that was accelerated by the recent additions to the balance sheet.
USDA raised its national average corn yield to 181.2 bu. per acre, up from its previous estimate of 178.5 bushels. Needless to say, USDA took the market, which was looking for a 0.7-bu./acre cut, by surprise. Meanwhile, details have stirred controversy, particularly given an 11 bu./acre bump to Nebraska’s average corn yield despite deteriorating crop conditions in the western Corn Belt.
We took a deeper look to see how USDA got to its estimate:
Five of the top ten producing states saw an increase in yield (Nebraska up 11 to 188 bushels, Ohio up 6 to a record 200 bushels, Wisconsin up 2 to 182 bushels, Kansas up 4 to 125 bushels, South Dakota up 6 to 151 bushels). Only one top producing state saw a decline month-over-month (Illinois down 1 bu. per acre to 208 bushels).
USDA began using objective yield data, which is based on physical field samples, in its September report. At the 10-state level, ear counts fell as we expected to 28,600 ears per acre, 50 ears per acre below the September estimate. Counts were down in Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Ohio, South Dakota and Wisconsin. Counts rose in Illinois, Iowa, Missouri and Nebraska. All corn ear counts in Nebraska rose from 25,000 ears per acre to 26,700 ears per acre month-over-month. That huge change is despite drops in both the irrigated ear counts and non-irrigated ear counts. In the September Crop Production report, USDA allocated just 10% of Nebraska’s corn crop to irrigated corn, pulling the all corn figure lower. In October, they rectified that, allocating 55% of corn acres to irrigated. In commentary around why the September figure was so far off, the explanation was that enumerators just happened to do checks in non-irrigated fields at an non-representative rate, skewing the all corn figure lower. It seems more likely a mistake was made, considering the balance between irrigated/non-irrigated went from 10%/90% in September to 55%/45% in October. This miss raises further questions about the credibility of USDA’s monthly production reports.
With 10-state ear counts down and yields sharply higher, there can be only one culprit — higher ear weights. Ear weights were implied at .365 lbs. per ear in September. That figure jumped to .371 lbs per ear in the October report, which would be the second highest ever behind .381 lbs per ear in 2025.
Both ear counts and ear weights are above what Pro Farmer Crop Tour data implied. Ear counts have been moving lower as more data rolls in, but still indicate a year-over-year increase. In contrast, Crop Tour saw counts fall 1.8% across the seven Crop Tour states. Ear weights are down 2.6%, according to USDA data, while Crop Tour saw ear length down 4.3% (while not a perfect match, ear weights and ear length typically correlate very well). Given the ear length found on tour, one would expect weights to be near .353 lbs. per ear.
The October report has more harvest results included in the estimates, but the slow pace throughout the Corn Belt limits how much data could be collected. USDA aims to have Oct. 1 as the reported date for the October production report. As of Oct. 5, just 7% of the Iowa corn crop was harvested and just 15% of the Nebraska crop was cut, 13 points and nine points behind average, respectively. Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, South Dakota and Ohio are all behind average as well.
None of the major crop producing states saw month-over-month increases in the good to excellent rating from USDA’s Crop Progress reports. Many states saw declines with Indiana down one, Iowa down five points, Minnesota down two, Missouri down 2, Nebraska down 12, North Dakota down 3, Ohio down 4 and South Dakota down 4.