Higher Crop Estimates Expected | November 9, 2021
Spring wheat futures led overnight gains in the grain and soy complex on light trade ahead of USDA’s November crop reports later this morning. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are around 2 cents higher, soybeans are fractionally to a penny higher and wheat futures are 2 to 7 cents higher. Front-month crude oil futures are around 50 cents higher and the U.S. dollar index is holding near unchanged this morning.
Following are highlights from USDA’s crop progress and condition update for the week ended Nov. 7.
- Corn: 84% harvested (78% on average)
- Soybeans: 87% harvested (88%)
- Cotton: 98% bolls open (98%), 55% harvested (57%)
- Winter wheat: 91% planted (91%), 74% emerged (77%), 45% “good” to “excellent” (unchanged)
Traders anticipate USDA will continue to raise its corn and soybean crop estimates. The average pre-report estimate from a Reuters survey puts the corn crop at 15.050 billion bu. and the soybean crop at 4.484 billion bushels. The bigger crop estimate is expected to increase the 2021-22 bean ending stocks projection.
Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian soybean and corn crop estimates at 144 MMT and 118 MMT, respectively, though he has a neutral to slightly higher bias for both crops given favorable growing conditions.
A U.S. government energy report today may determine whether the Biden administration decides to release crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Officials will likely be looking for any significant revisions to price and supply/demand forecasts in the Energy Information Administration’s Short Term Energy Outlook before deciding.
The U.S. plans to invest in five to 10 large infrastructure projects around the world in January as part of a broader Group of Seven (G7) program to counter China's Belt and Road Initiative, a senior U.S. official said on Monday.
The Federal Reserve said U.S. public health is among the biggest near-term risks to the financial system. The central bank's semiannual Financial Stability Report also noted that asset prices are susceptible to large declines should investor sentiment shift.
The average cash cattle price firmed $2.93 last week to the highest weekly average since February 2018. Importantly, feedlots moved a lot of cattle at the sharply higher prices last week, cleaning up laggard marketings.
The CME lean hog index rose another 60 cents today to $79.29, the second straight daily gain. Seasonally, the cash index typically falls into winter before starting a recovery.
